In an attempt to prognosticate a little better for next season, I decided to try and project what Trent might be set up to accomplish in 2019. To do this, I looked at players that have made the all big ten freshman team AND the big ten honorable mention list. This seemed to be a decent way to capture freshman that had similarly impactful seasons their freshman years. I looked at the 2011-2017 seasons (because I'm lazy and didn't want to go back further).
This list includes 11 players:
Tony Carr
Ethan Happ
Caleb Swanigan
James Blackmon Jr
Yogi Ferrell
Sam Dekker
Glen Robinson III
Branden Dawson
Tim Hardaway Jr
Melsahn Basabe
Of these 11, 10 stayed healthy (Blackmon didn't) during their sophomore year. At the conclusion of their sophomore year:
Carr, Happ, Swanigan - 1st team all big ten.
Ferrell, Dekker - 2nd team.
Hardaway Jr - 3rd team.
Robinson III, Craft - Honorable Mention.
Dawson, Basabe - No accolades.
5/10 players became 1st or 2nd team material. That's a 50% shot that Trent Frazier becomes a monster next year, disregarding the glaring holes in my analysis.
The other 5 guys didn't have bad seasons either, but if we want to be a middle of the road team with a shot at the tournament, we need a star player. Frazier is our best shot at that, obviously, but looking at this made me more optimistic that he may be able to become an elite player next year.
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