Illini Basketball 2020-2021

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#101      

Goode-for-3

Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3 said: "I think we'd have another 1-2 wins this season if we had Griffin on our roster and we'd probably still be locked in as a Top 5 team with a better chance at winning it all this season.
If losing Griffin is the sacrifice we had to make to get Miller to play for us this year and next, I'd say it was well worth it."
Ubermensch said:
I cannot find a way to get from A to B here.
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Allow me to clarify. IF we had not recruited Adam Miller, Griffin would likely be starting like Miller is now, and playing a few more than the 24.8 minutes per game Miller is getting right now (likely taking most of that additional tick from Grandison and Hawkins). In these early season games, the additional rebounds Griffin would have provided and his ability to maintain his shooting composure even against tougher opponents may have been the difference maker in 1 or 2 of our losses this season.

HOWEVER, I am still very high on Miller and think that Miller's ceiling is much higher. Griffin might be the better player thru the first 1/3 of this season but I think that Miller will be better for the Illini program (I still think it's likely he will step up strong next season and replace a lot of what Ayo is giving us right now). Obviously I would have loved if Griffin had been willing to stay and play alongside the rest of our current roster, but given the choice between Griffin and Miller I'm still on Team Miller.
 
#102      

WizardBill

WizardBill
WizardBill
altenberger22 said:
Just found this update from Vegas...........very interesting. We're still holding strong in the Top 5. (And where in the world did Houston come from? Phi Slamma Jamma II, perhaps?)

NCAA BASKETBALL FUTURES ODDS BETTING MARKET
Odds To Win National Championship (4/6/21)
TeamAmericanFractional
Gonzaga+3509/2
Villanova+7007/1
Baylor+8008/1
Iowa+8008/1
Illinois+9009/1
Houston+110011/1
Kansas+110011/1
Michigan State+120012/1
Duke+130013/1
North Carolina+150015/1
Wisconsin+150015/1
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Very hard to understand Duke over WI
 
#104      

grue2

G
grue2
TheFameProtector said:
Unless you're talking about overseas pro, there is not a chance DMW will be going to the NBA.
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Yes, that is what I meant. (DWM going pro overseas.)

This also presume that DWM wants to play pro ball overseas. If he is a good student, he may be better off with an extra year of grad school.
 
#105      

grue2

G
grue2
grue2 said:
OldYeller said:
For everyone who wasn't sure about Adam Miller starting...please publicly out yourself and eat some crow
Now what am I going to do with this Turkey? Please pass the salt.
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Against teams with poor defenses,

MinutesBPMOPMDPM
11-27 OhioW, 77–7533-6.4-3.1-3.2
12-2v. BaylorL, 82–6931-12.8-8.2-4.6
12-8@ DukeW, 83–6829+13.48.64.8
12-12@ MissouriL, 81–7823-4.9-5.91.0
12-15 MinnesotaW, 92–6525+9.15.33.8
12-20@ RutgersL, 91–8820-13.2-8.8-4.4
12-23@ Penn St.W, 98–8118-2.2-3.51.3
12-26 IndianaW, 69–6018-19.8-13.8-5.9
 
#106      

grue2

G
grue2
Finishing the prior post.

Can I pass the plate yet?

Against poor defenses, Adam does well. Against even mediocre defenses he struggles. He is averaging: BPM -4.6; OPM -3.7; DPM -0.9, omitting the two powderpuffs. I think he is a great recruit and will enjoy watching him play for the next few years. I stand by my "needs growth", and "may start by end of year" vs. he is ready to start early in the season, or even now.

For those unfamiliar with the BPM scale:
+2: solid starter
+0: 5/6th man
-2: passable bench player
below -2: end of bench
 
#107      

BRucks

BRucks
BRucks
grue2 said:
Yes, that is what I meant. (DWM going pro overseas.)

This also presume that DWM wants to play pro ball overseas. If he is a good student, he may be better off with an extra year of grad school.
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He's a sociology major so he had better upgrade if he's not pursuing basketball.
 
#108      

Calvin

C
Calvin
grue2 said:
Finishing the prior post.

Can I pass the plate yet?

Against poor defenses, Adam does well. Against even mediocre defenses he struggles. He is averaging: BPM -4.6; OPM -3.7; DPM -0.9, omitting the two powderpuffs. I think he is a great recruit and will enjoy watching him play for the next few years. I stand by my "needs growth", and "may start by end of year" vs. he is ready to start early in the season, or even now.

For those unfamiliar with the BPM scale:
+2: solid starter
+0: 5/6th man
-2: passable bench player
below -2: end of bench
Click to expand...

Not sure where you're getting your info. I'm on that same site, and they have Adam as 1.6 (0.2 Offense, 1.4 Defense), which according to your guide is decent. I don't think it's fair to cherry pick data in such a small sample or make blanket statements so early in his career. It's obvious he's struggled the past few games and is still adjusting. Give him some time before you expect consistency.

Also, consider how the stat you cite lines up:
12.2 Ayo (off the charts, better than any of Michael Jordan's championship seasons)
11 DMW (insane, once in a generation player -James Harden's best season)
9.0 Grandison
7.8 Kofi
7.5 Curbelo
6.6 Giorgi
5.4 Trent
 
#109      

grue2

G
grue2
Calvin said:
Not sure where you're getting your info. I'm on that same site, and they have Adam as 1.6 (0.2 Offense, 1.4 Defense), which according to your guide is decent. I don't think it's fair to cherry pick data in such a small sample or make blanket statements so early in his career. It's obvious he's struggled the past few games and is still adjusting. Give him some time before you expect consistency.

Also, consider how the stat you cite lines up:
12.2 Ayo (off the charts, better than any of Michael Jordan's championship seasons)
11 DMW (insane, once in a generation player -James Harden's best season)
9.0 Grandison
7.8 Kofi
7.5 Curbelo
6.6 Giorgi
5.4 Trent
Click to expand...
The difference, as you observed, is that I omitted the two powderpuffs from the calculation (and said so). Is it pretty standard to exclude extreme outliers, especially if the reason for their being an outlier is known. They really skew the stats. The BPM in particular is very susceptible to these outliers since it is giving absolute numbers instead of relative numbers. If the outliers are included, then to see how someone is doing, a players BPM needs to be compared to everyone else's BPM instead of looking at the absolute number. The scale goes out the window. [So compare Adam's 1.6BPM to the rest of the team.]

This whole discussion is really about how much time does Adam need before he becomes a solid, consistent, contributor (i.e. starter). I have not seen anyone on the list doubt Adam in the "long term." Some people said "starter from day 1", others said "maybe my mid/late season". Camp 1 asked camp 2 to eat crow. This is pointing out the request may have been premature. Nothing more.
 
#110      

Rap73

R
Rap73
Calvin said:
Not sure where you're getting your info. I'm on that same site, and they have Adam as 1.6 (0.2 Offense, 1.4 Defense), which according to your guide is decent. I don't think it's fair to cherry pick data in such a small sample or make blanket statements so early in his career. It's obvious he's struggled the past few games and is still adjusting. Give him some time before you expect consistency.

Also, consider how the stat you cite lines up:
12.2 Ayo (off the charts, better than any of Michael Jordan's championship seasons)
11 DMW (insane, once in a generation player -James Harden's best season)
9.0 Grandison
7.8 Kofi
7.5 Curbelo
6.6 Giorgi
5.4 Trent
Click to expand...
Any ranking having Grandison above anyone else on that list is phony.
 
#111      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
Torvik has now moved us into one of the #1 seeds in his TRank Bracketology. Gonzaga, Baylor, Wisconsin and Illinois.
 
#115      

Oldskoolkoach

O
Oldskoolkoach
What has happened in regards to Coleman Hawkins, anyone know? Seems his tick has been non-exiatent last couple weeks.

Can't remember who it was, but a few years ago someone informed the staff they were transferring at years end and they just quit playing them.

Any thoughts, or has Grandison just absorbed those minutes? He has played well lately, I will admit that.
 
#116      

CentralILifer

CentralILifer
CentralILifer
Oldskoolkoach said:
What has happened in regards to Coleman Hawkins, anyone know? Seems his tick has been non-exiatent last couple weeks.

Can't remember who it was, but a few years ago someone informed the staff they were transferring at years end and they just quit playing them.

Any thoughts, or has Grandison just absorbed those minutes? He has played well lately, I will admit that.
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Interesting thought. Seemed to me Grandison just took his minutes. Hadn't thought of Hawkins leaving. It seems plausible to me, given what he and his family seemed to expect.
 
#117      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
Oldskoolkoach said:
What has happened in regards to Coleman Hawkins, anyone know? Seems his tick has been non-exiatent last couple weeks.

Can't remember who it was, but a few years ago someone informed the staff they were transferring at years end and they just quit playing them.

Any thoughts, or has Grandison just absorbed those minutes? He has played well lately, I will admit that.
Click to expand...

I would say that's unlikely considering BU has said so many good things about Hawkins, but anything is possible.

BU challenged the team to get tougher on the 50/50 plays after the Rutgers game, and Grandison stepped up to that challenge. I think it's as simple as that.
 
#118      

pruman91

pruman91
Paducah, Ky
pruman91
Oldskoolkoach said:
What has happened in regards to Coleman Hawkins, anyone know? Seems his tick has been non-exiatent last couple weeks.

Can't remember who it was, but a few years ago someone informed the staff they were transferring at years end and they just quit playing them.

Any thoughts, or has Grandison just absorbed those minutes? He has played well lately, I will admit that.
Click to expand...

B1G conference play tends to limit frosh who are in the 8th or 9th role as to rotation, and means grandison, having been in the program last year, would get more tick as the opponents get tougher and have a lot more meaning as to conf. title and seeding for the dance..... Miller has been getting less tick also although he still starts and plays 20 + mins....
JMHO
 
#119      

TheFameProtector

TheFameProtector
Champaign
TheFameProtector
Not sure if it's already been posted elsewhere, but I noticed today that this NBA mock draft has Ayo the highest I've seen him at #14. Very impressive to think of his possible jump from likely undrafted last year to possible mid- or late lottery first rounder.

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2021-nba-mock-draft/

P.S.: Bleacher Report's new mock has him at #25. There's some benefit to going a tad later and ending up on a more seasoned, well-run team. I would love to see him on the Bucks.
 
#121      

TCTORNADO

TCTORNADO
TCTORNADO
TheFameProtector said:
Not sure if it's already been posted elsewhere, but I noticed today that this NBA mock draft has Ayo the highest I've seen him at #14. Very impressive to think of his possible jump from likely undrafted last year to possible mid- or late lottery first rounder.

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2021-nba-mock-draft/

P.S.: Bleacher Report's new mock has him at #25. There's some benefit to going a tad later and ending up on a more seasoned, well-run team. I would love to see him on the Bucks.
Click to expand...

Only 125 more Mocks to go.
 
#122      

hoopsfan47

H
hoopsfan47
A two seed for the Illini would be my ceiling and welcome. A one seed would not as there would be too much chatter and distraction. Most likely a 3 if they can continue to all improve, become consistent on both ends, and all players get rid of those awful blundering games.

Miller will be fine, but at some point in the future needs to show ability to drive and either finish or dish. Have yet to see that and a must if he is to play in the NBA. Lots of work to do, but most of it by coaches getting these kids confident and playing without so much thinking and error when playing faster. It may happen....or not.

Not likely to teach Kofi how to grab and hold the ball more quickly or get him into the habit of keeping it above his head when he has it so the little guys don't grab it run the other way....drives me nuts and it happens about 4 times a game or so. When he stays away from that, he is superman.

Frazier is a difference maker and shooting better this season, but he needs to be dependable 3 treys or more every game and also a drive threat....which he is not at all...quite unusual for a kid recruited as a PG.

Curbelo? He is becoming more fun to watch and more of the engine that fuels this team when the vets are not firing. Sure was a great find and quite surprising how well he has picked up almost all the slack from Feliz graduation....even rebounding. Now, if he could only learn to shoot beyond 8 feet....but in the end he may not need to do that.

And do I...and every one of us....love seeing the return of the REAL Georgi!!! There is a huge difference when he takes his time and shoots his dink shots instead of throwing them up. Could become the Illini favorite of all time!! I will add nothing as recent comments from the coaches have covered all the laudits possible.

Bottom line, just keep plugging along, chopping, keep the dreams sky high and mixed with hard work. The ceiling has no limit.
 
#123      

greyghost70

G
greyghost70
Goode-for-3 said:
I know you said there's no comparison between Adam Miller and Alan Griffin but just for S&!ts and giggles let's compare them anyway. Here are there respective stats:

PLAYERMINPTS3PA3PMREB (/40min)AST / TOAST (/40min)TO (/40min)STL (/40min)
Alan Griffin
226​
116​
49​
19​
53 (9.4)​
0.955​
21 (3.7)22 (3.9)
8 (1.4)​
Adam Miller
248​
88​
47​
16​
17 (2.7)​
0.750​
9 (1.5)12 (1.9)
7 (1.1)​

Right now Griffin is shooting 38.8% from 3 and Miller is shooting 34%. However, the sample size is still low and if Miller were to make his next 3 shots he would have 19 of 50 attempts compared to Griffin's 19 of 49 attempts. So at this stage in the season it's too early to tell who the better 3-point shooter is, although Griffin has a slight lead.

Both players are a liability with AST / TO ratios under 1.0 but Griffin is averaging 3.9 TO/40MIN while Miller is only averaging 1.9 TO/40MIN. Also, since turnovers tend to lead to fast break / higher percentage shots from your opponents they tend to hurt a team more than an assist helps. Therefore, I'd give Miller the slight edge here due to the better ball control and significantly fewer turnovers.

Alan Griffin has 53 Rebounds for Syracuse which is impressive, and he's almost certainly a better rebounder than Adam Miller but he's also not playing alongside Kofi Cockburn (99 REB), Ayo Dosunmu (72 REB), or Da'Monte (52 REB) anymore. Alan Griffin's 53 Rebounds are 18.4% of Syracuse's team rebounds but when Alan was on the Illini roster he only brought down 10.4% of the team boards. While he may have improved, it's likely that a big part of his increase in rebounds is due to a decrease in team ability to rebound. That being said, Alan showed he's an elite rebounder last year and Miller hasn't shown a knack for it yet so this one clearly goes to Griffin.

What's not shown on the stat sheet is defensive ability and I think that in that category Adam Miller is Alan Griffin's equal. I'll admit I've only watched 2 Syracuse games this season but what I saw seems to be pretty similar to the defense he was playing at Illinois which was mostly good, but not great. Both players also have approximately the same number of steals. If NCAA basketball tracked which player allowed the opponents points it would be easier to identify defensive ability, but for now based on the eye test alone I'd call this a tie.

Ultimately, I'm not at all surprised Griffin transferred. Syracuse is clearly willing to play him 32.3 minutes per game despite his team high 3.1 turnover per game and <1 AST/TO ratio which has allowed Griffin to increase his scoring to 16.6 points per game even though his scoring per minute has effectively not changed from when he played with Illinois (0.514 pts/min now vs. 0.492 pts/min last season). At the end of the day, Griffin looks to be the same player he was on the Illini team last year - and to be fair that's not a bad thing. I think we'd have another 1-2 wins this season if we had Griffin on our roster and we'd probably still be locked in as a Top 5 team with a better chance at winning it all this season. However, Griffin's role would have been very similar to what he had last season with ~20 minutes per game, even if he was in our starting lineup. Maybe Griffin would have started over Miller, but I think the expectation would be that Miller would be a serious threat to take that starting role from Griffin and Griffin was looking to go somewhere that his place in the starting line-up was more secure.

In terms of comparison with Miller (freshmen) and Griffin (Junior), Griffin is currently the better player, but that's not so surprising considering we're only about 1/3 of the way into Miller's freshmen season. Both are good 3-point shooters, both have some defensive weaknesses, Griffin's more prone to turnovers but also pulls down significantly more boards. I think if you look at there stats at the end of this season or next season the comparison will shift in Miller's favor as it is obvious (at least to me) that Miller is further from his career ceiling than Griffin is. If losing Griffin is the sacrifice we had to make to get Miller to play for us this year and next, I'd say it was well worth it.
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Well written. I will stand by my statement though. We can check back later in the year. One thing I want to mention is although Alan is not known for his defense (I agree with this) he has won one game for Syracuse with a Lebron type block at the buzzer. I think his athleticism is highly underrated and that is what I like about him on our team. We have a great team, but we could use some more atheticism.
 
#124      

Goode-for-3

Goode-for-3
Goode-for-3
greyghost70 said:
Well written. I will stand by my statement though. We can check back later in the year. One thing I want to mention is although Alan is not known for his defense (I agree with this) he has won one game for Syracuse with a Lebron type block at the buzzer. I think his athleticism is highly underrated and that is what I like about him on our team. We have a great team, but we could use some more atheticism.
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Ya, I think we probably have similar view points. I think Griffin would have been a great piece to our team this year had he stayed, but if Miller’s recruitment is what drove him off I’m completely fine having Miller over Griffin.
 
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