Are you suggesting that you can't effortlessly finger-roll from 2 inches below the rim?
Illini Basketball 2022-2023
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sacraig
- The desert
I could try...
As a basic rule of thumb, if you are developing a model and in comparing it to other established prediction models it highly overvalues Northwestern, I wouldn't use it to place any large bets. It's time to go back to the drawing board.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
If the over/under for teams finishing in these positions was 4.5, I'd bet most of my Beach Houses on the under.
Definition of “Long” 7’6”
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Seems clear your optimism for next season hinges upon your assumptions about our current players. Unless you return literally everyone like we did heading into 2005, looking at production lost will ALWAYS make one assume we’ll be worse. Not saying we didn’t lose a ton … we did … but it’s a logical fallacy to compare a freshman RJ to a super senior Trent or a sophomore Hawkins to a grad transfer Plummer or whatever. We already know how last year’s players performed, for that specific season at that specific age, and that should be taken in isolation.
Personally, based on flashes I saw down the stretch, RJ is primed for a BREAKOUT year. There’s a reason he was one of the few bright spots at times when we were struggling … his game is exactly what we were missing. I also think another offseason will turn Hawkins into a reliable starter and consistent producer, and I think it’s completely possible Skyy Clark has an Ayo-type freshman year. Point being? Yes, we’re young and it’ll take time to learn to play with experience and poise, but I don’t know how you couldn’t look at a potential starting lineup on paper and think we could be pretty damn dangerous by March!
Personally, based on flashes I saw down the stretch, RJ is primed for a BREAKOUT year. There’s a reason he was one of the few bright spots at times when we were struggling … his game is exactly what we were missing. I also think another offseason will turn Hawkins into a reliable starter and consistent producer, and I think it’s completely possible Skyy Clark has an Ayo-type freshman year. Point being? Yes, we’re young and it’ll take time to learn to play with experience and poise, but I don’t know how you couldn’t look at a potential starting lineup on paper and think we could be pretty damn dangerous by March!
Thanks for the explanation. He is, evidently misleadingly, listed as a shooting guard on the recruiting sites (and roster who, per request, just copies it). I, wrongly, assumed he was being played out of position last year due to the roster composition.
He did play PG one year in HS (evidently out of necessity) but his stats suffered. DMW was also listed as a PG on several sites. Don’t know where they get that info but not very accurate.
Dain looks great. Coach mentioned both him and Goode in the recent presser as transforming with Fletch.
RJ, gonna be a star, c'mon.
Now just add this fantastic incoming class with Cohawk and everyone, oh baby, I for one cannot wait.
We will be young, lacking some experience, but all this talent, good lord.
I bet we get "old" fast. Thanks coach.
"All this talent" ? Other than Skyy, no one on the roster that was ranked a top 50 player out of H.S. (could change with possible additions). Obviously, rankings aren't everything, but we're not in the same universe talent-wise as Duke, Kentucky, UNC, and a few others. In conference, Michigan will have decidedly more talent than us and Indiana and OSU will also have more.
I think we could be a really good team by season's end, but some posters grossly exaggerate our talent.
I never mentioned Duke, Kentucky, UNC, you took it there.
I'm thinking that we will be able to compete in our conference without a rebuild pause.
My point is we might play "experienced" quickly.
"All this talent, good lord." I interpret that as if we have some mind-blowing agglomeration of talent, which we certainly don't. If everything works out ....Dainja is healthy and looks like his highlight videos (usually doesn't happen), RJ makes a huge FR-Soph leap (I could see that), Hawkins keeps improving, and the FR guards acclimate quickly...... we could be competitive in the Big Ten. Oh yeah and stay relatively healthy unlike this past year.
I would feel much more comfortable if we bring in a quality C/PF and at least one guard from the Portal. I'm somewhat confident our staff can do that.
We've had some freshmen over the last few decades step up and have some great seasons at PG for us. Here's some stats on some of the better or more important ones. Some of these guys we're really out there on a limb without much back court support, like this year could end up being.
| Season | G | GS | MP | FG% | 3P% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | TOV | PTS | |
| Derek Harper | 1980-81 | 29 | 27 | 32.2 | 41.3% | 71.7% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 8.3 | |
| Bruce Douglas | 1982-83 | 32 | 27 | 31.8 | 45.9% | 71.9% | 2.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 9.4 | |
| Steve Bardo | 1986-87 | 31 | 10 | 20.3 | 41.2% | 33.3% | 68.0% | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
| Rennie Clemons | 1990-91 | 31 | 28 | 26.9 | 44.6% | 44.4% | 62.8% | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 8.5 |
| Kiwane Garris | 1993-94 | 28 | 27 | 31.8 | 43.3% | 33.3% | 80.3% | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 15.9 |
| Frank Williams | 1999-00 | 32 | 29 | 30.4 | 38.2% | 31.6% | 80.4% | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 11.4 |
| Dee Brown | 2002-03 | 32 | 31 | 34.1 | 43.4% | 32.9% | 68.1% | 3.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 12.0 |
| Deron Williams | 2002-03 | 32 | 30 | 27.1 | 42.6% | 35.4% | 53.3% | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 6.3 |
| Demetri McCamey | 2007-08 | 35 | 17 | 27.3 | 36.4% | 34.0% | 62.7% | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 8.2 |
| Tracy Abrams | 2011-12 | 32 | 19 | 21 | 40.8% | 25.7% | 63.0% | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 4.3 |
| Trent Frazier | 2017-18 | 32 | 16 | 26.3 | 40.5% | 34.7% | 64.4% | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 12.5 |
I am very confident in our point guard situation. I would say get a 3/4 transfer and a 5 transfer and call it a day.
While I definitely think a FR can be productive at PG (and we've had many do it over the years, as Brett's post illustrates), we need another guard. No coach in his right mind is going to enter a season with only three guards on the roster. I guarantee you that's our staff's priority right now.
And we need another PF/C. Not sure there's a huge need for a 3/4. But of course you add talent if you can.
Does anyone actually know what Fletch is doing? He is turning these kids into absolute monsters!
You put in daily work and eat the food Fletch posts on his Snapchat. Magic happens.
Yeah, magic is the right word…
RJ to me is similar to Keegan Murray as well. Jok is a pretty good comp though
Cmon… why sell RJ short. He’s definitely a more athletic Larry bird with Dennis Rodman’s rebounding.
Thanks for posting this. Fun to look back at all these names. Kiwane Garris IMO definitely one of the most underrated Illini of all-time. How impressive for Harper and Douglas to come in and average over 5 assists as freshmen when the Big Ten was so good back then. We sure have been blessed to watch some great players, and here's hoping Clark and Epps are the next in line.
I thought that didn't look right. Thanks to you for doing the work though. And op for the list.
There's no reason he can't be a shooting guard. I watched him carefully on defense; he's fundamentally sound with excellent footwork, and he's strong. You won't see him throwing the ball away either. He's disciplined and with a high BB IQ.
As a freshman Harper was beyond confident; he was arrogant. Just what you want from a freshman PG.
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