Illini Basketball 2022-2023

Status
Not open for further replies.
#26      
bergd91
I agree đź’Ż with Pru. We are in outstanding shape. That is what took us to the win definitely against Texas. They ran out of gas and we were stepping on it. The scores in our wins and losses have been strange. We are either winning by 10 tto15 pts. Or getting blown out by 15 and 20. Really weird season. I truly wish this team would stop shooting 30 3 pt shots every game. We are not agood 3 ot shooting team and it ends up being a wasted possession. Shoot more 2's and drive the ball and free throws. We are so athletic and long.
 
#27      
WeWillWhen
Mayer was around a 37% career 3-point shooter at Baylor, which is decent enough. He's almost exactly on his career average.

TSJ also hit at a 37% clip his last two years at Texas Tech. Right now, he's at 32% overall, 25% in conference, and shooting at a high volume. Him and RJ Melendez are really bringing down the team percentage. I think that TSJ will revert to his mean at some point. I'm not sure RJ will improve. Maybe Goode will help, maybe not.

The team really misses a guy like Plummer, Grandison, Griffin, Aaron Jordan, etc. who can shoot the 3 at a 40% or better rate. You need at least one of those to keep the defense honest, and open up driving lanes for our slashers and post guys; otherwise, opponents just pack the paint like last night.

Maybe Brad thought there would be more offseason improvement from a few guys then what has turned out -- he over relied on POTENTIAL 40%+ shooters, rather than ACTUAL 40%+ shooters. I think that a proven shooter needs to be a top priority in the portal; there always seem to be a few mid-major guys who can shoot lights out.
 
#28      
bergd91
WeWillWhen said:
Mayer was around a 37% career 3-point shooter at Baylor, which is decent enough. He's almost exactly on his career average.



TSJ also hit at a 37% clip his last two years at Texas Tech. Right now, he's at 32% overall, 25% in conference, and shooting at a high volume. Him and RJ Melendez are really bringing down the team percentage. I think that TSJ will revert to his mean at some point. I'm not sure RJ will improve. Maybe Goode will help, maybe not.



The team really misses a guy like Plummer, Grandison, Griffin, Aaron Jordan, etc. who can shoot the 3 at a 40% or better rate. You need at least one of those to keep the defense honest, and open up driving lanes for our slashers and post guys; otherwise, opponents just pack the paint like last night.



Maybe Brad thought there would be more offseason improvement from a few guys then what has turned out -- he over relied on POTENTIAL 40%+ shooters, rather than ACTUAL 40%+ shooters. I think that a proven shooter needs to be a top priority in the portal; there always seem to be a few mid-major guys who can shoot liI love the post, but when have we ever had a player shoot 40% from 3?ghts out.
Click to expand...
 
#29      
One Man Fast Break
We all know Shannon CAN shoot, the issue is that he's shooting threes at a much greater volume than he was at Texas Tech. He was at 7.9 three point attempts per 100 possessions last season at Tech, and he's at 9.5 three point attempts per 100 possessions this season with Illinois.

So without watching every single attempt throughout his career, I'd reckon that in line with his overall greater usage as a "go to" scorer, he's taking a lot more three point attempts off the dribble and in creating his own shot, as opposed to shooting in a more catch and shoot fashion when he had a clean look. Variance always plays a bit of a role, but I reckon that is a much bigger factor in the decline in his three point efficiency.

He just really needs to cut those bad attempts (visible from the eye test). It's fine to have in the arsenal but it should not be his "go to". Since his sun run of a shooting stretch against Monmouth and UCLA (12-18 for three in those back to back games), he is shooting 25.8 % on three point attempts on a very high 4.9 attempts per game. That's an 18 game stretch spanning 10 weeks. He's really good at going downhill and either scoring or getting fouled, that's what he should be focused on doing when he touches the ball.

As for what Underwood was hoping/relying on coming into the season, probably wasn't counting on Goode going down with injury, probably wasn't counting on RJ Melendez going on a season-long slump (if you can even call it a "slump" at this point). Skyy Clark also had a good recruiting billing as far as being a dangerous jump shooter. Mayer was and is a pretty good shooter. Shannon was and is a three-level scorer (just see issues above), Hawkins was a guy who can at least keep defenses honest without necessarily being a true "stretch big" (he just seems determined to try and be one with his 7.4 three point attempts per 100 possessions). Epps was billed and is a guy that can help provide some needed shooting spark as well (and he is only a Freshman so that should get better).

Biggest issues from what we thought we had to what we do have are almost certainly that Melendez has performed way worse offensively than any of us would have expected based on what we've heard about him in practice and he showed in his limited sample last season, and that Shannon and Hawkins are not making good decisions as far as shot selection. These are hopefully fixable in that you hope Melendez can find some confidence and get his stroke together by March (I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for Goode to come back and be a savior after missing the whole season to this point) and that Shannon and Hawkins can play more within themselves. The only time I really feel like this team has a serious lack of shooting as far as keeping defenses honest is when 2 out of 3 of Dainja, Rodgers and Harris are out on the floor.
 
#30      
hoopsfan47
WeWillWhen said:
Mayer was around a 37% career 3-point shooter at Baylor, which is decent enough. He's almost exactly on his career average.

TSJ also hit at a 37% clip his last two years at Texas Tech. Right now, he's at 32% overall, 25% in conference, and shooting at a high volume. Him and RJ Melendez are really bringing down the team percentage. I think that TSJ will revert to his mean at some point. I'm not sure RJ will improve. Maybe Goode will help, maybe not.

The team really misses a guy like Plummer, Grandison, Griffin, Aaron Jordan, etc. who can shoot the 3 at a 40% or better rate. You need at least one of those to keep the defense honest, and open up driving lanes for our slashers and post guys; otherwise, opponents just pack the paint like last night.

Maybe Brad thought there would be more offseason improvement from a few guys then what has turned out -- he over relied on POTENTIAL 40%+ shooters, rather than ACTUAL 40%+ shooters. I think that a proven shooter needs to be a top priority in the portal; there always seem to be a few mid-major guys who can shoot lights out.
Click to expand...
Good. As for TSJ, his shot is fundamentally poor. I am ok with his shooting 3-4 from the arc per game if he is open and set....but too many of his shots are simply thrown toward the basket and result in an air ball or two every game. Air balls from three are unacceptable in my book unless fouled. Mayer shoots too many quick ones too and off movement which is really tough for a guy his size. Epps seldom shoots a bad 3 as he does not force them up but is patient and waits until they are available. RJ is a mystery and Hawk, though potentially a good three point shooter, has too much variation in his arc if you notice. Hawk is good when he is set, goes straight up, and puts a consistent higher arc on the ball. But I would have him shooting a handful in the lane every game as no one guards him there. If they had too, his passing expertise would really give this team some upside that opponents simply ignore as they know he won't shoot anything but a three or layup/putback/dunk. Hawk passes up more easy scoring opportunities than any player of his skill I have witnessed in the past 65 years as a hoops fan.

Bottom line is this team needs to seek shots with a purpose and better probability for success. I have no problem with any shot from the arc...if the ball goes into the lane first. There are always a couple shooters on the perimeter open and ready when Mayer of DD draws a double inside (Hawk does not draw a double as he does not shoot from the lane). RJ's struggles from the arc have really held the offense back. He was once a guy who was going to put the ball at least somewhere inside the cylinder but is now shooting air balls and bricks....all his problems are between the ears most likely. He is a very skilled player at both ends and this team needs the confident swagger of the old RJ.

At this point, it does not appear that as a team, this group will reach very close to their potential, but there are 9 games left and maybe 3 in the B1G tournament to hone purpose in the next two months. Maybe their flaws are too noticeable by the collective B1G coaching cadre who all know how to take advantage. I guess we will just have to let it all play out, but as so many have stated, this is a very difficult team to watch play. And yet, we all watch as avid fans and supporters....and hope for victory for the Illinois Var-si-ty!!

This next game is one I cannot in all sincerity see as an Illini win at this point. Iowa is at full strength with some key players on the upswing and will be ready to rock and roll in front of a big crowd on Sat. This game will be the poster child of an against all odds road challenge in the B1G. No learning to be done though and the plan has to be to trade every punch they throw with a better one. Not sure if the Illini are ready...but if they are as tough as Underwood wants to believe, they need to fight the Hawkeyes to the buzzer and play SMART as well as tough. ZERO defects as they say in the U S Army!!
 
#31      
Ga65
Actually not sure why Harris gets all the bad comments on his shooting. Shooting .001 worse than Epps from 2 and better than the average from 3. FT % horrible but may have more to do with his defensive energy output. Also doesn’t seem afraid to shoot when open though he certainly doesn’t pursue his shot.
 
#32      
Deep
Any updates on Luke Goode?
 
#33      
One Man Fast Break
Ga65 said:
Actually not sure why Harris gets all the bad comments on his shooting. Shooting .001 worse than Epps from 2 and better than the average from 3. FT % horrible but may have more to do with his defensive energy output. Also doesn’t seem afraid to shoot when open though he certainly doesn’t pursue his shot.
Click to expand...
he only attempts threes against really bad competition, can't recall now but I think most of his makes were warm up level shots. He hasn't shot well from anywhere under then directly under the hoop from my eye test, and the free throw shooting is a big yikes (and usually a good indicator of how good a "pure shooter" someone is)
 
#35      
One Man Fast Break
hoopsfan47 said:
Hawk is good when he is set, goes straight up, and puts a consistent higher arc on the ball. But I would have him shooting a handful in the lane every game as no one guards him there. If they had too, his passing expertise would really give this team some upside that opponents simply ignore as they know he won't shoot anything but a three or layup/putback/dunk. Hawk passes up more easy scoring opportunities than any player of his skill I have witnessed in the past 65 years as a hoops fan.
Click to expand...
Hawkins to me feels like the clearest case of a guy who has honed his entire skillset around doing what the NBA does. You're absolutely right, given that he is an OK enough shooter, if he took that mid range shot that teams leave wide open, he could have definitely developed that and that it would have overall made him an ELITE college player. NBA teams don't want their 6'10 dudes ever doing that (and in general have killed that shot for all but a handful of really elite mid-range players, notice how Ayo never shoots those in the NBA when they were his bread and butter in college).
 
#36      
Oldskoolkoach
Alright, I'm bored, so let's see what you got! You have to:
Hire one, fire one, and unalive one.
 

Attachments

  • jhoward.jpg
    jhoward.jpg
    89.6 KB · Views: 153
  • usatsi_17723538.jpg
    usatsi_17723538.jpg
    114.2 KB · Views: 159
  • 5c75fa402500001c0580acaf.jpeg
    5c75fa402500001c0580acaf.jpeg
    32.3 KB · Views: 159
#38      
Bigtex
WeWillWhen said:
Mayer was around a 37% career 3-point shooter at Baylor, which is decent enough. He's almost exactly on his career average.

TSJ also hit at a 37% clip his last two years at Texas Tech. Right now, he's at 32% overall, 25% in conference, and shooting at a high volume. Him and RJ Melendez are really bringing down the team percentage. I think that TSJ will revert to his mean at some point. I'm not sure RJ will improve. Maybe Goode will help, maybe not.

The team really misses a guy like Plummer, Grandson, Griffin, Aaron Jordan, etc. who can shoot the 3 at a 40% or better rate. You need at least one of those to keep the defense honest, and open up driving lanes for our slashers and post guys; otherwise, opponents just pack the paint like last night.

Maybe Brad thought there would be more offseason improvement from a few guys then what has turned out -- he over relied on POTENTIAL 40%+ shooters, rather than ACTUAL 40%+ shooters. I think that a proven shooter needs to be a top priority in the portal; there always seem to be a few mid-major guys who can shoot lights out.
Click to expand...
Spot on
 
#40      
Deep
21ChampaignSt said:
If there was a Loyalty bot, this would be its first post.

Edit: nothing personal directed toward you, Deep.
Click to expand...
I'm just trying to find out info. I dont get to check this board but maybe once a day and there is a lot to weed through.

I was trying to see if any one know time table for when he gets back on practice floor for full 5 on 5.
 
#42      
21ChampaignSt
Deep said:
I'm just trying to find out info. I dont get to check this board but maybe once a day and there is a lot to weed through.

I was trying to see if any one know time table for when he gets back on practice floor for full 5 on 5.
Click to expand...
I have no inside info. I think the last update I heard is that he's participating in individual drills but still hasn't been fully cleared to practice. Gotta think we're approaching the point where a medical redshirt is being discussed.
 
#43      
Muskie2368
One Man Fast Break said:
Hawkins to me feels like the clearest case of a guy who has honed his entire skillset around doing what the NBA does. You're absolutely right, given that he is an OK enough shooter, if he took that mid range shot that teams leave wide open, he could have definitely developed that and that it would have overall made him an ELITE college player. NBA teams don't want their 6'10 dudes ever doing that (and in general have killed that shot for all but a handful of really elite mid-range players, notice how Ayo never shoots those in the NBA when they were his bread and butter in college).
Click to expand...
Demar Derozan says hi that shot is needed. Ayo shot that mid range last year quite a bit. This year not as much. He needs to shoot it more to get him into a shooting rhythm. His three the second half has been terrible.
 
Last edited:
#44      
BretMyBeachHouse
Muskie2368 said:
Demar Derozan says hi
Click to expand...
Actually, lots of guys say Hi. All the bigger players are putting up a fair amount of the mid range shots that Hawkins is routinely passing up. Your ability to make those is part of how you keep teams honest. If he thinks he can pass up open 10 footers because that's what the NBA wants, he's badly mistaken.
 
#45      
ugottabjoshinme
I don't think we will win out or anything like that, but I'd bet my beach house (trust me it's nice) that we finish better than 4-5 the rest of the way.
 
#46      
One Man Fast Break
Muskie2368 said:
Demar Derozan says hi that shot is needed. Ayo shot that mid range last year quite a bit. This year not as much. He needs to shoot it more to get him into a shooting rhythm. His three the second half has been terrible.
Click to expand...
Demar IS the exception. Like I think him, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard get their most points from the mid range and those two get a lot of points off threes as well. For newer guys coming into the League and just trying to make their mark, they rarely have a well developed mid range shot. Part of it is coaching restraining them from taking it and part of it is they just don’t develop it because as youngsters they’re hyper focused on the three. And then those two things play off each other.
 
#47      
BretMyBeachHouse
One Man Fast Break said:
Demar IS the exception. Like I think him, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard get their most points from the mid range and those two get a lot of points off threes as well. For newer guys coming into the League and just trying to make their mark, they rarely have a well developed mid range shot. Part of it is coaching restraining them from taking it and part of it is they just don’t develop it because as youngsters they’re hyper focused on the three. And then those two things play off each other.
Click to expand...
what do you define as midrange? Look at the shot charts. Lots of shots being taken between 3pt line and the paint. Sure, it's weighted to the paint and 3 point line, but the idea that the NBA doesn't look for players with that shot is wrong.
 
#49      
Second place is 1st loser
ugottabjoshinme said:
I don't think we will win out or anything like that, but I'd bet my beach house (trust me it's nice) that we finish better than 4-5 the rest of the way.
Click to expand...
Not out of the question, but we have to have better starts to these games. I could be misremembering, but I can't remember the last time we came out from the get go and played a great first half(in conference). The, we're a second half team, has caught up with us a couple of times this year. Seems like we have some games coming up(less Minny) where we have to be sharp from the opening tip.
 
#50      
ChiefIllinois
BretMyBeachHouse said:
what do you define as midrange? Look at the shot charts. Lots of shots being taken between 3pt line and the paint. Sure, it's weighted to the paint and 3 point line, but the idea that the NBA doesn't look for players with that shot is wrong.
Click to expand...
Derozan is the prime example he lives for mid range jumpers and has carved out a fantastic career.

If you can excel at it, then there should be nothing preventing you from taking them. The problem is it typically isn’t worth the bump down in percentage as opposed to a shot in the paint.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back