Illini Basketball 2024-2025

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#351      
lstewart53x3
bluemountain said:
I remember when BU was hired he had the reputation as having a really innovative offensive mind. What the heck happened?
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He had the #3 offense in the nation just last year. And before anyone says, “that’s only because he had TJ!”.

No, false. We were in the 30’s in offensive efficiency before TJ was suspended, climbed all the way up to #1 before his suspension was lifted, then ended the season at #3.

Looking at this year, 33% of our games have been played without at least one starter, yet we’re still 16th in offensive efficiency. With a fully healthy team this season, we likely would have had back to back top 10 offenses.

In the 4 years before Brad arrived, our offensive efficiency ranked 126 on average. Now that’s bad offense.

Our defense on the other hand…
 
#352      
SAELION
21ChampaignSt said:
It might be as simple as - we go as KJ goes.

The individual Game Score metric is meant to quantify the overall value that a player adds in a game. Transparently, I don't know how strong this metric is.

But, before the MSU game at East Lansing, KJ's average Game Score against high major opponents was 13.8.

Since, the IU game he has only exceeded 13.8 twice, against Minnesota and UCLA.

In high major games where KJ does not perform to his average, we are 5-8.

The only game we've lost all year when KJ has played well was @Northwestern.

Good KJ: 7-1
No KJ: 1-1
Bad KJ: 5-8
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Hmm? Isn't KJ's metric influenced by how well the rest of the team plays as well as the quality of the opponent. The correlation seems to run both ways. Was KJ's metric strongly influenced by how the whole team played, or vicey- vercy?
 
#353      
21ChampaignSt
SAELION said:
Hmm? Isn't KJ's metric influenced by how well the rest of the team plays as well as the quality of the opponent. The correlation seems to run both ways. Was KJ's metric strongly influenced by how the whole team played, or vicey- vercy?
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I'm not sure. I would argue that generally the point guard's play has a stronger influence on how the rest of the team plays than the team influencing how the point guard plays. Especially a pg with such high usage. You may be able to find some data that shows otherwise.

But I wouldn't overthink it. We're hard to beat when our best player plays well. We're a sub .500 team when he doesn't.
 
#354      
PepeSilvia
I don't know where to look that up but there is no way that's true.

Illinois was not the number 1 offense in the country during mid January. They scored 78 against Purdue, 71 against MSU, and 67 vs Maryland. The other three games were good offensive showings against FDU, Northwestern, and Michigan.

They reached number 1 on Kenpom after the Iowa State game.
 
#355      
Mr. Tibbs
is there any decent chance we keep all three of Riley/ KJ / Ivisic next year ?
if not all 3, odds of 2 of three ?
 
#356      
ChiTown
21ChampaignSt said:
I'm not sure. I would argue that generally the point guard's play has a stronger influence on how the rest of the team plays than the team influencing how the point guard plays. Especially a pg with such high usage. You may be able to find some data that shows otherwise.

But I wouldn't overthink it. We're hard to beat when our best players plays well. We're a sub .500 team when he doesn't.
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Fixed.We do pretty well too when Big T is able to spread the floor by hitting those 3’s.
 
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#357      
AirNeazy
Fighter of the Nightman said:
2013-14
High Point: January 7. 13-2 record and ranked #23, including some recent thrilling rivalry wins over #23 Missouri and Indiana, an a tough, hard-fought loss to #15 Oregon in Portland.
First Collapse: After getting demolished 95-70 on January 8 in what supposed to be a hyped up matchup in Madison, we lost 10 of 11 games, lol.
False Hope: Won 4 out of 5 games from February 19 to March 8 (including road wins at #18 Michigan State and #24 Iowa) gave us at least a prayer of making the NCAA Tournament. This hope was further stoked by beating Indiana in our first BTT game.
Final Letdown: A heart-breaking 1-point loss to #8 Michigan in the BTT Quarterfinals officially kills our hopes of Dancin', as Tracy Abrams' floater comes up short. This is likely the beginning of the end of the Groce Era, too, even though it was just his second season.
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Ugh, this was probably the most frustrating season for me a fan ever. I remember watching that BTT loss to Michigan in the middle of class at UI on my phone.

and BTW I love Tracy, but it wasn't his floater coming up short.....he just blew a wide open layup going straight down the lane to win the game IIRC.....perfect microcosm of Groce's tenure sadly.
 
#359      
Epsilon
IlliniFanTX said:
It's less than a month until Selection Sunday and all I can think about is the 2025 Illinois football season. What a weird time to be an Illini fan 🤠
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I’d be all in on basketball rn because that’s the sport I enjoy watching most but with the current meltdown of our bb team and the disappointment with our current coaching it’s just hard to keep excited about this year’s team.
 
#360      
Rap47
Illinois' defense is bad because of the drop coverage on the high screen pick and roll. Because of this the guard is ahead of his defense and with no coverage by our big, there is many options for ball movement from the guard. Hamer has to be the worst defense coordinator in the big ten.
 
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#361      
SampsonRelpenk
AirNeazy said:
Ugh, this was probably the most frustrating season for me a fan ever. I remember watching that BTT loss to Michigan in the middle of class at UI on my phone.

and BTW I love Tracy, but it wasn't his floater coming up short.....he just blew a wide open layup going straight down the lane to win the game IIRC.....perfect microcosm of Groce's tenure sadly.
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It's pathetic that I remember this, but he's right, the game ended on a missed shot in the lane by Abrams. The blown layup was earlier in the half by Rayvonte Rice.
 
#362      
Bigtex
I don't know Hamer and don't think he is all that effective but STOP The offense and defense is on the coach. If underwood doesn't like something he can change it.
 
#363      
Fighter of the Nightman
Fun fact that's not fun at all. Here is our 3-point shooting percentage in Big Ten play organized by how many threes we attempted. The cutoffs might appear random, but we had a ton of games where we shot between 30-39 threes, so I tried to divide them up equally.

> 40 Attempts: 23.8%
33-39 Attempts: 26.0%
30-32 Attempts: 29.9%
< 30 Attempts: 31.2%

The one time we shot fewer than 20 threes was at Minnesota, and we made 56.3% of them, lol. Additionally, we are 1-3 in games where we take more than 32 3-pointers. If we haven't learned yet, we never will. And sometimes numbers don't hit home as much as some good old fashioned subjective and anecdotal evidence, lol. So, here are the two games where we have taken the fewest three pointers and the two games where we have taken the most...

W 95-74 at Minnesota (16 attempts and )
W 87-79 vs. Ohio State (20 attempts)
...
L 66-70 at Northwestern (34 attempts)
L 74-80 at Nebraska (42 attempts)

I suppose if this team hasn't gotten the message yet, they never will.
 
#364      
IlliniFanTX
Epsilon said:
I’d be all in on basketball rn because that’s the sport I enjoy watching most but with the current meltdown of our bb team and the disappointment with our current coaching it’s just hard to keep excited about this year’s team.
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Same here. I live and die college bball in general, but this team is exhausting me haha of course I'll still watch every game, but the excitement has waned tremendously. Reminds me of watching Underwood's first year (or the bulk of the Groce years) where we just hoped to be competitive.
 
#365      
illini011923
blackdog said:
We scored 74 points last night shooting 43% overall, 33% from 3 and 14 turnovers and that was considered a terrible outing. It's really been the defense that has been suspect recently.
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The offense's biggest issue is that we get stale too often. We will go stretches of not scoring or even putting up a good shot, which leads to these runs. Part of that is when you send 2-3 guys to crash if you don't get the rebound then you are at a serious disadvantage on defense. Michigan St killed us on that down the stretch.

On the defensive side of the ball its a combination of few things. The drop coverage can be very effective when you have a defender such as DGL or Kylan going over the ball screen since they can set that edge and not let the ball handler get too deep. It becomes very difficult with 2 Freshman bigs (one that hasn't been 100% since December) as they have to get a better feel on how low they need to help and when to pop out. Brad is okay if we give up a contested layup or midrange from the guard coming off the screen because that's typically a contested shot that's worth only 2 instead of a wide open 3 from an inside out pass.
ALSO
We haven't had a full unit since pre KJ injury back on January 5th!!! (I know you can say Michigan St and UCLA we had everyone suit, Morez got hurt during Mich St, and UCLA we still had sickness)
With a bunch of young players trying to get defensive togetherness becomes very difficult. Especially if you can't even field a full practice to work on it.
ALSO
This is the one of the only critiques for Brad this season is the lack of depth in the back court. On paper having Morez, Tomi, Hum, Booth all 6'9+ seems like a recipe for success but with how abysmal Booth is, and when you factor the injury bug/foul troubles it has been a huge issue.
- If we return Morez and Ivisic we need atleast 1-2 backups for them (not a toothpick like Booth)(we need some beef like another Morez/Dain body type that can withstand Big Ten bigs)
-Will Jakstyks stay or can he be that bench guy we need (haven't heard much about him since I heard the plan was a redshirt year 1 and go from there)
 
#366      
the juiceman cometh
IlliniFanTX said:
Same here. I live and die college bball in general, but this team is exhausting me haha of course I'll still watch every game, but the excitement has waned tremendously. Reminds me of watching Underwood's first year (or the bulk of the Groce years) where we just hoped to be competitive.
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There have been so many amazing moments and accomplishments since, but for me the moment that remains the most exciting of the BU era was in the game against Iowa in March 2020 when Kofi blocked Garza at the buzzer to win the game. The feeling that everything was coming together was exciting in a way that sustained success can never be.

I feel like we're in the same kind of place with football now, as we were with those Ayo + Kofi teams, which is an exciting place to be.
 
#367      
OrangeKrush1981
Fascinating post.

In response, I think (who cares what I think) that massive changes are going to be implemented starting two months from now.
 
#369      
HereSoIDontGetFined
AirNeazy said:
Ugh, this was probably the most frustrating season for me a fan ever. I remember watching that BTT loss to Michigan in the middle of class at UI on my phone.

and BTW I love Tracy, but it wasn't his floater coming up short.....he just blew a wide open layup going straight down the lane to win the game IIRC.....perfect microcosm of Groce's tenure sadly.
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It was like a four-footer. Close enough that any decent player should have made it in. However...

...Michigan let him take the shot, because Abrams was shooting 11% on the season from that section of the floor. Someone posted the heat charts on Abrams after, and sure enough, it's his worst percentage shooting area. They basically eliminated any possibility that he'd get a decent shot, so he took the only one he had and it missed. Game over, season over, Groce's career at Illinois - over. It was just the microcosm of Groce at Illinois.
 
#370      
Battle89
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
It was like a four-footer. Close enough that any decent player should have made it in. However...

...Michigan let him take the shot, because Abrams was shooting 11% on the season from that section of the floor. Someone posted the heat charts on Abrams after, and sure enough, it's his worst percentage shooting area. They basically eliminated any possibility that he'd get a decent shot, so he took the only one he had and it missed. Game over, season over, Groce's career at Illinois - over. It was just the microcosm of Groce at Illinois.
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#371      
Emerson Bigguns
the juiceman cometh said:
There have been so many amazing moments and accomplishments since, but for me the moment that remains the most exciting of the BU era was in the game against Iowa in March 2020 when Kofi blocked Garza at the buzzer to win the game. The feeling that everything was coming together was exciting in a way that sustained success can never be.

I feel like we're in the same kind of place with football now, as we were with those Ayo + Kofi teams, which is an exciting place to be.
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This was the moment where I really started to believe again.

https://www.facebook.com/BTN/videos/ayo-dosunmu-3-pointer-late/2147068308938311/

The fact that it also made Dakich look foolish was icing on the cake.
 
#373      
illinoispeak
Guest said:
I would go in a completely different direction. At least, to my eyes, this team seems to have gelled and is pretty cohesive. It also consists of some very good players already and others who want to break into the starting lineup. I think bringing in someone like those already mentioned would be more of a disruption to this team's dynamics, so I would pick someone like Jack Ingram. He knows his role on the team which would be to spell either Tomi or MJ. While MJ is doing better, not fouling as much (although, that might be due to better referees) but he is still a freshman and there is a good chance that fouls could limit his playing time. Ingram would be the perfect guy to sub in for him. And, Ingram might have been a good enough backup while Tomi was out these last couple of weeks and the Illini might have been able to win those games. He was, after all, a pretty good off-the-bench player in ‘05. He probably would have started for many other teams.
Or someone like Lucas Johnson, who wasn’t a prolific scorer but did everything else.
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No Way Basketball GIF by NBA
 
#374      
illinoispeak
BatteredWifeSchwartz said:
Marcus Domask is the correct answer.

Sneaky answer, Alfonso Plummer. Dude was electric shooting the 3 when he was here. That's exactly what this team needs. He'd plug straight into the 2 and be the "go-to" sharpshooter.

TSJ and Ayo are the clear "best" players and certified bucket getters, but the problem you run into is that you would have 3 or 4 guys on this team who all do the same thing on offense.
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No one on this team does anything like TSJ or Ayo.
 
#375      
OrangeKrush1981
Ayo and TSJ are the two highest-character guys we've had in the Underwood era. Number three, but behind by less than a whisker, is Trent Frazier. That sumbit*h is what this squad needs. Heart.
 
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