Illini Basketball 2025-2026
- Status
Bigtex
- DFW
you got my refence as the conversation regarding Miller to replace Brad @Indy Illini Fan
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
There are a lot of really big games where I REALLY want a win this year for what it means for both the season and the program. Obvious examples include getting revenge vs. Tennessee and UConn, getting revenge AND protecting our turf at the United Center vs. Alabama, continuing the winning streak vs. a top 10 Michigan team, etc. However, there is one game I think I want more than any other right now, and it might be a surprising one - the Texas Tech home game.
Warning for a longer post, so the TL;DR section below pretty much sums up why I want to beat TTU so badly, lol.
This wouldn't just be an early statement win vs. a top 10 team, and it wouldn't just give this team some REALLY great momentum early on. It would be a massive step in the right direction re-establishing State Farm Center / Assembly Hall as a place where you just simply don't go in and win. We have been quite fortunate during these Underwood years, but one annoying hitch has been losing too many high-profile home games ... I really think it has prevented SFC from re-emerging on lists of the hardest places to play, no matter how good the atmosphere is. And I hate that. For some historical reference, this is our record at home vs. ranked opponents chopped up into a few different eras. Just for fun since I also mentioned the Alabama game, I will include the United Center games vs. ranked opponents during this timeframe as a separate list below.
"Golden Era" - 2000 to 2006
Summary
93-4 at Home Overall
20-3 at the United Center Overall
13-1 at Home vs. Ranked Opponents
4-2 at the United Center vs. Ranked Opponents
Top 25 Home Games in Champaign, IL
2000
W 80-77 vs. #13 Ohio State
W 87-63 vs. #16 Indiana
2001
W 87-79 vs. #7 Seton Hall
W 77-66 vs. #4 Michigan State
W 68-67 vs. #19 Wisconsin
2002
W 77-66 vs. #17 Iowa
W 70-62 vs. #25 Indiana
2003
W 92-65 vs. #12 North Carolina
2004
L 54-58 vs. #24 Purdue
W 65-57 vs. #12 Wisconsin
2005
W 91-73 vs. #1 Wake Forest
W 73-68 in OT vs. #23 Iowa
W 70-59 vs. #20 Wisconsin
2006
W 60-50 vs. #7 Michigan State
W 71-65 vs. #20 Iowa
Top 25 United Center Games in Chicago, IL
2000
L 69-72 vs. #17 Duke (Chicago, IL)
W 84-70 vs. #8 Kansas (Chicago, IL)
W 72-69 vs. #13 Indiana (Chicago, IL - BTT Quarterfinals)
L 61-76 vs. #5 Michigan State (Chicago, IL - BTT Championship)
2001
W 81-73 vs. #7 Arizona (Chicago, IL)
2002
N/A
2003
N/A
2004
N/A
2005
W 54-43 vs. #23 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT Championship)
2006
N/A
----> We went 93-4 at home, including winning 13 out of 14 hyped matchups vs. ranked teams. We also treated the United Center as a true Home Away From Home, compiling a crazy 20-3 record there over this time span. It was a beautiful thing to witness!!
"Decline Era" - 2007 to 2012
Summary
74-25 at Home Overall
4-5 at the United Center Overall
9-13 at Home vs. Ranked Opponents
0-1 at the United Center vs. Ranked Opponents
Top 25 Home Games in Champaign, IL
2007
L 66-72 vs. #23 Maryland
L 44-62 vs. #6 Ohio State
L 64-71 vs. #2 Wisconsin
W 51-43 vs. #23 Indiana
2008
L 79-83 in 2OT vs. #14 Indiana
L 57-71 vs. #11 Wisconsin
L 51-59 vs. #17 Michigan State
2009
W 66-51 vs. #25 Michigan
W 66-48 vs. #12 Purdue
L 66-74 vs. #9 Michigan State
2010
W 89-83 in OT vs. #25 Northwestern
L 78-84 vs. #13 Purdue
W 78-73 vs. #5 Michigan State
L 53-72 vs. #13 Ohio State
L 57-72 vs. #15 Wisconsin
2011
W 71-62 vs. #17 Michigan State
L 68-73 vs. #1 Ohio State
L 70-81 vs. #14 Purdue
2012
W 82-75 vs. #19 Gonzaga
W 79-74 vs. #5 Ohio State
W 42-41 vs. #10 Michigan State
L 61-72 vs. #13 Michigan
Top 25 United Games in Chicago, IL
2007
L 41-53 vs. #3 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT Semifinals)
2008
L 72-78 in OT vs. #22 Arizona (Chicago, IL)
2009
N/A
2010
N/A
2011
N/A
2012
N/A
----> Yeah, obviously the teams were just a lot worse. However, as seen below, my point is that our current caliber of program is being dreadfully between those two extremes, and that is worse than we should reasonably expect! I'm skipping the Groce Era and Underwood rebuild years for this very reason, as they were the true floor for the program. Plus, again my main point is that for as successful as we've been since 2020, we've been disappointing (at least on a relative scale) in front of our hometown fans.
"Underwood Renaissance Era" - 2020 to 2025
Summary
83-17 at Home Overall
0-1 at the United Center Overall
11-9 at Home vs. Ranked Opponents
0-0 at the United Center vs. Ranked Opponents
Top 25 Home Games in Champaign, IL
2020
W 71-62 vs. #5 Michigan
L 66-75 vs. #9 Maryland
W 78-76 vs. #18 Iowa
2021
L 81-87 vs. #21 Ohio State
W 80-75 vs. #7 Iowa
W 75-60 vs. #19 Wisconsin
2022
L 79-83 vs. #11 Arizona
L 88-96 in 2OT vs. #4 Purdue
W 80-67 vs. #11 Wisconsin
L 83-86 vs. #22 Ohio State
W 74-72 vs. #24 Iowa
2023
W 79-69 vs. #14 Wisconsin
W 69-60 vs. #24 Rutgers
W 66-62 vs. #21 Northwestern
2024
L 64-71 vs. #4 Marquette
L 71-77 vs. #3 Purdue
2025
W 86-80 vs. #20 Wisconsin
L 64-66 vs. #1 Tennessee
L 74-95 vs. #11 Michigan State
W 88-80 vs. #18 Purdue
----> While our overall home record has remained decently good though not amazing (.830 vs. .959 in the Golden Era above), it's that record in big games that has been disappointing. We have won 55% of home games vs. ranked opponents vs. nearly 93% in the 2000-2006 stretch. I think we can all rationalize away most Big Ten road losses ... but it sucks to have games like last year vs. MSU or 2024 vs. Marquette when the other team looks comfortable and unintimidated on their way to a win in our house...
TL;DR
This is our home winning percentage both overall and vs. ranked opponents during these stretches.
Overall Home Record
2000 to 2006: 93-4 (.959)
2020 to 2025: 83-17 (.830)
2007 to 2012: 74-25 (.747)
Home Record vs. Top 25 Opponents
2000 to 2006: 13-1 (.929)
2020 to 2025: 11-9 (.550)
2007 to 2012: 9-13 (.409)
I think a lot of fans have the perception that we have underwhelmed in home games, and this is a big reason why (in addition to inexplicable losses to unranked teams like 2021/2022 Maryland, 2023 PSU, 2024 Maryland, 2025 USC, etc.). In these big-time games in front of our hometown fans, we have a record closer to the late Weber years than the 2000-2006 stretch ... even though we have teams that are much closer to the latter. It's undeniable that we haven't experienced the dominance at home that we really should with teams of this caliber, and I want to see that change.
I think that is why the home win vs. Purdue to end last season felt so cathartic ... we had lost 4 of 5 vs. ranked opponents at home, and many followed the same pattern where we looked like we had a chance but folded in the final minutes. Finally, vs. Purdue, we hung on to get the W (and broke a losing streak vs. them!). Beating TTU would go a long way to getting me to start to feel like the House of 'Paign is truly back.
Warning for a longer post, so the TL;DR section below pretty much sums up why I want to beat TTU so badly, lol.
This wouldn't just be an early statement win vs. a top 10 team, and it wouldn't just give this team some REALLY great momentum early on. It would be a massive step in the right direction re-establishing State Farm Center / Assembly Hall as a place where you just simply don't go in and win. We have been quite fortunate during these Underwood years, but one annoying hitch has been losing too many high-profile home games ... I really think it has prevented SFC from re-emerging on lists of the hardest places to play, no matter how good the atmosphere is. And I hate that. For some historical reference, this is our record at home vs. ranked opponents chopped up into a few different eras. Just for fun since I also mentioned the Alabama game, I will include the United Center games vs. ranked opponents during this timeframe as a separate list below.
"Golden Era" - 2000 to 2006
Summary
93-4 at Home Overall
20-3 at the United Center Overall
13-1 at Home vs. Ranked Opponents
4-2 at the United Center vs. Ranked Opponents
Top 25 Home Games in Champaign, IL
2000
W 80-77 vs. #13 Ohio State
W 87-63 vs. #16 Indiana
2001
W 87-79 vs. #7 Seton Hall
W 77-66 vs. #4 Michigan State
W 68-67 vs. #19 Wisconsin
2002
W 77-66 vs. #17 Iowa
W 70-62 vs. #25 Indiana
2003
W 92-65 vs. #12 North Carolina
2004
L 54-58 vs. #24 Purdue
W 65-57 vs. #12 Wisconsin
2005
W 91-73 vs. #1 Wake Forest
W 73-68 in OT vs. #23 Iowa
W 70-59 vs. #20 Wisconsin
2006
W 60-50 vs. #7 Michigan State
W 71-65 vs. #20 Iowa
Top 25 United Center Games in Chicago, IL
2000
L 69-72 vs. #17 Duke (Chicago, IL)
W 84-70 vs. #8 Kansas (Chicago, IL)
W 72-69 vs. #13 Indiana (Chicago, IL - BTT Quarterfinals)
L 61-76 vs. #5 Michigan State (Chicago, IL - BTT Championship)
2001
W 81-73 vs. #7 Arizona (Chicago, IL)
2002
N/A
2003
N/A
2004
N/A
2005
W 54-43 vs. #23 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT Championship)
2006
N/A
----> We went 93-4 at home, including winning 13 out of 14 hyped matchups vs. ranked teams. We also treated the United Center as a true Home Away From Home, compiling a crazy 20-3 record there over this time span. It was a beautiful thing to witness!!
"Decline Era" - 2007 to 2012
Summary
74-25 at Home Overall
4-5 at the United Center Overall
9-13 at Home vs. Ranked Opponents
0-1 at the United Center vs. Ranked Opponents
Top 25 Home Games in Champaign, IL
2007
L 66-72 vs. #23 Maryland
L 44-62 vs. #6 Ohio State
L 64-71 vs. #2 Wisconsin
W 51-43 vs. #23 Indiana
2008
L 79-83 in 2OT vs. #14 Indiana
L 57-71 vs. #11 Wisconsin
L 51-59 vs. #17 Michigan State
2009
W 66-51 vs. #25 Michigan
W 66-48 vs. #12 Purdue
L 66-74 vs. #9 Michigan State
2010
W 89-83 in OT vs. #25 Northwestern
L 78-84 vs. #13 Purdue
W 78-73 vs. #5 Michigan State
L 53-72 vs. #13 Ohio State
L 57-72 vs. #15 Wisconsin
2011
W 71-62 vs. #17 Michigan State
L 68-73 vs. #1 Ohio State
L 70-81 vs. #14 Purdue
2012
W 82-75 vs. #19 Gonzaga
W 79-74 vs. #5 Ohio State
W 42-41 vs. #10 Michigan State
L 61-72 vs. #13 Michigan
Top 25 United Games in Chicago, IL
2007
L 41-53 vs. #3 Wisconsin (Chicago, IL - BTT Semifinals)
2008
L 72-78 in OT vs. #22 Arizona (Chicago, IL)
2009
N/A
2010
N/A
2011
N/A
2012
N/A
----> Yeah, obviously the teams were just a lot worse. However, as seen below, my point is that our current caliber of program is being dreadfully between those two extremes, and that is worse than we should reasonably expect! I'm skipping the Groce Era and Underwood rebuild years for this very reason, as they were the true floor for the program. Plus, again my main point is that for as successful as we've been since 2020, we've been disappointing (at least on a relative scale) in front of our hometown fans.
"Underwood Renaissance Era" - 2020 to 2025
Summary
83-17 at Home Overall
0-1 at the United Center Overall
11-9 at Home vs. Ranked Opponents
0-0 at the United Center vs. Ranked Opponents
Top 25 Home Games in Champaign, IL
2020
W 71-62 vs. #5 Michigan
L 66-75 vs. #9 Maryland
W 78-76 vs. #18 Iowa
2021
L 81-87 vs. #21 Ohio State
W 80-75 vs. #7 Iowa
W 75-60 vs. #19 Wisconsin
2022
L 79-83 vs. #11 Arizona
L 88-96 in 2OT vs. #4 Purdue
W 80-67 vs. #11 Wisconsin
L 83-86 vs. #22 Ohio State
W 74-72 vs. #24 Iowa
2023
W 79-69 vs. #14 Wisconsin
W 69-60 vs. #24 Rutgers
W 66-62 vs. #21 Northwestern
2024
L 64-71 vs. #4 Marquette
L 71-77 vs. #3 Purdue
2025
W 86-80 vs. #20 Wisconsin
L 64-66 vs. #1 Tennessee
L 74-95 vs. #11 Michigan State
W 88-80 vs. #18 Purdue
----> While our overall home record has remained decently good though not amazing (.830 vs. .959 in the Golden Era above), it's that record in big games that has been disappointing. We have won 55% of home games vs. ranked opponents vs. nearly 93% in the 2000-2006 stretch. I think we can all rationalize away most Big Ten road losses ... but it sucks to have games like last year vs. MSU or 2024 vs. Marquette when the other team looks comfortable and unintimidated on their way to a win in our house...
TL;DR
This is our home winning percentage both overall and vs. ranked opponents during these stretches.
Overall Home Record
2000 to 2006: 93-4 (.959)
2020 to 2025: 83-17 (.830)
2007 to 2012: 74-25 (.747)
Home Record vs. Top 25 Opponents
2000 to 2006: 13-1 (.929)
2020 to 2025: 11-9 (.550)
2007 to 2012: 9-13 (.409)
I think a lot of fans have the perception that we have underwhelmed in home games, and this is a big reason why (in addition to inexplicable losses to unranked teams like 2021/2022 Maryland, 2023 PSU, 2024 Maryland, 2025 USC, etc.). In these big-time games in front of our hometown fans, we have a record closer to the late Weber years than the 2000-2006 stretch ... even though we have teams that are much closer to the latter. It's undeniable that we haven't experienced the dominance at home that we really should with teams of this caliber, and I want to see that change.
I think that is why the home win vs. Purdue to end last season felt so cathartic ... we had lost 4 of 5 vs. ranked opponents at home, and many followed the same pattern where we looked like we had a chance but folded in the final minutes. Finally, vs. Purdue, we hung on to get the W (and broke a losing streak vs. them!). Beating TTU would go a long way to getting me to start to feel like the House of 'Paign is truly back.
Quite a deep dive here. Good work,
One thing that stands out in the home losses to me is that only 2 of the nine were to teams ranked lower than #11. We have yet to return to the days of the Illini being consistently a Top 10 team, though we are creeping in that general direction, so the odds were presumably not in our favor in most of those opportunities. Teams with those kind of rankings are generally not affected much by venue.
To your point, though, there is no excuse for some of the eggs we have laid against teams we should have beaten at home. The longer the program stays relevant in the rankings, the more enthusiasm will surround the program. We are probably just now getting back to the point where the bulk of the current students expected a good basketball team to be part of the culture when they decided to attend.
Career wise it isn't close.
8 Sweet 16s.
5 Elite 8 appearances. Including one with Xavier....
I'll spare everyone Brad's stats...think we all are uniquely aware.
Brad certainly has the better record post 2020 but you are comparing Xavier with Illinois on resources and recruits? Not really apples to apples
Let's see what he does at Texas the next 3 to 5 years...
Also, Sean hasn't been Indy's #1 pick. Think you could look to Will Wade, Chris Beard, Todd Golden (though this was during the investigation that UF botched where a move seemed more possible).
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Yeah, an equally interesting thing to look at might be losses to unranked teams at home. I'm not going to go through the whole totals and stuff, but we can at least see a clear trend by era with it just laid out chronologically:
"Golden Era" - 2000 to 2006
Summary
79-3 at Home vs. Unranked Opponents
2000
L 66-69 vs. Purdue
2001
N/A
2002
L 61-67 vs. Michigan State
2003
N/A
2004
N/A
2005
N/A
2006
L 65-66 vs. Penn State
---> 3 "dud" home losses over 7 seasons or 0.43 per year.
"Decline Era" - 2007 to 2012
Summary
65-11 at Home vs. Unranked Opponents
2007
N/A
2008
L 58-61 in OT vs. Miami (OH)
L 58-60 vs. Tennessee State
L 58-74 vs. Ohio State
L 64-68 vs. Penn State
L 75-83 vs. Purdue
2009
L 74-76 vs. Clemson
L 33-38 vs. Penn State
2010
L 60-62 vs. Minnesota
2011
N/A
2012
L 63-67 vs. Wisconsin
L 70-74 vs. Northwestern
L 62-67 vs. Purdue
---> 11 "dud" home losses over 6 seasons or 1.83 per year.
"Underwood Renaissance Era" - 2020 to 2025
Summary
70-8 at Home vs. Unranked Opponents
2020
L 79-81 vs. Miami (FL)
L 69-70 vs. Michigan State
2021
L 63-66 vs. Maryland
2022
N/A
2023
L 59-74 vs. Penn State
L 65-80 vs. Indiana
2024
L 79-86 vs. Maryland
2025
L 72-82 vs. USC
L 71-90 vs. Maryland
---> 8 "dud" home losses over 6 seasons or 1.33 per year. So we haven't been TERRIBLE, but it is annoying that (A) we haven't upset as many of the top teams as we would have hoped playing on our home floor and (B) we have pretty much been good for 1-2 TRULY disappointing home losses each season. I get that college hoops has changed a lot since the early and mid-2000s, but I want to feel EXTREMELY confident when we get another team in the House of 'Paign again. It also needs to be said that we have had a ton of way-too-close calls at home that we've thankfully survived but still left a lot to be desired for playing at home. 2024 OT win vs. Nebraska, 2022 PSU/Northwestern games that required us to hang on late, absolute heart attack 77-75 comeback win vs. Ohio in 2021, etc.
P.S. This last comment is a TOTAL hunch, and I do NOT have piles of data to back it up (I would love if someone looked into this!) ... but it also seems like we never shoot that much better at home like you'd assume a team would. For sake of time, just looking at our top three shooting performances vs. actual competition the last few years, a lot of them occur away from the hoops/rims you'd think we'd be the most comfortable with...
2025 FG %
63.2% at Minnesota
57.5% at Oregon
53.8% vs. Iowa (Indianapolis, IN - BTT)
2024 FG%
63.2% vs. FAU (New York, NY)
62.5% vs. Northwestern
61.3% vs. Minnesota
2023 FG%
52.9% vs. UCLA (Las Vegas, NV)
50.0% at Minnesota
49.1% at Iowa
2022 FG%
56.9% vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
56.7% at Michigan
52.8% vs. Notre Dame
2021 FG%
58.0% at Duke
56.1% at Minnesota
55.6% at Penn State
So 9 out of 12 were away from SFC ... what is up with that??
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Interesting stats on MSN’s top 100:
26 BIG players
16 guards, 7 forwards, 3 centers
Seen much conversation on how good BIG centers are but Bittle 27, Ivisic 30 and Cluff 70 are only projected top 100.
Didn’t count no. Of transfers but large no.
13 teams have at least one player with PU having 4 and OSU, Illini, and UCLA with 3.
Interesting in that most projected starters for Illini are 2 frosh (Davide and Keaton) plus those on top 100.
Personally don’t see list as very enlightening or accurate .
I totally agree.
Completely unrelated, but I also wonder how many 'top 40 freshmen' are on these top 100 lists as opposed to older veteran players. As you said, A LOT of the players on these lists are portal pickups.
madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
- Millywaukee
My expectations for year 2 Tomi are through the roof. Our floor spacing should be exceptional this year. Time for Tomi to feast.
Illini Basketball 2024-2025
It seems like it takes at least 2 full seconds for anyone to realize we're actually inbounding the ball. Kind of seems like that's the key to running their high stack set, everyone jockeys for position and then they make a sharp basket cut. They have scored on BLOB's pretty frequently this...
www.illinoisloyalty.com
See my old post linked above; Back in January, the discussion was had about whether SFC was a hard place to play, and KenPom has a pretty good Home Court Advantage ranking system for this. You can find an explanation of it here: https://kenpom.com/blog/how-to-measure-site-specific-home-court-advantage-part-two/
Surprisingly enough, SFC is actually up in the rankings since January; It's still in the bottom half of the B1G, but has increased from a D-1 ranking of 176 to a D-1 ranking of 118, so a reason to be optimistic!
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Interesting, thanks for posting! Also, RE: my shooting comment, Iowa is a great example of this. I'm not saying I want to be some streaking shooting team that relies on upsetting teams at home when it's raining threes and can't grind out tough road wins ... but I still have nightmares of Iowa just draining threes on us in Iowa City, and they have upset a lot of other teams there, as well. I mean, it's just literally common sense and obvious intuition to think the home team would shoot a little better than the away team on average.Illini Basketball 2024-2025
It seems like it takes at least 2 full seconds for anyone to realize we're actually inbounding the ball. Kind of seems like that's the key to running their high stack set, everyone jockeys for position and then they make a sharp basket cut. They have scored on BLOB's pretty frequently this...
See my old post linked above; Back in January, the discussion was had about whether SFC was a hard place to play, and KenPom has a pretty good Home Court Advantage ranking system for this. You can find an explanation of it here: https://kenpom.com/blog/how-to-measure-site-specific-home-court-advantage-part-two/
Surprisingly enough, SFC is actually up in the rankings since January; It's still in the bottom half of the B1G, but has increased from a D-1 ranking of 176 to a D-1 ranking of 118, so a reason to be optimistic!
This is pretty unrelated...
But your percentage analysis got me thinking about shooting percentages overall season-over-season, and while FG% has been really good over the past 8 seasons for the most part, 3P% for BU-coached teams has probably been the most hilariously volatile stat over any other stat. I'm sure it's been brought up before, but below is a table showing each season's 3P%, hopefully this season is a swing back towards the 35-37% range!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
^ Thanks for posting! Not gonna lie, in my subjective memory, the 2022 team was "better at threes" than the 2021 team, haha. Somehow last year's team seemed to hoist up even more bricks than the 2023 team, but I guess that must not have been the case ... perhaps they had wilder swings!
Ohio State's home court advantage is surprising given they can't fill their stadium.Illini Basketball 2024-2025
It seems like it takes at least 2 full seconds for anyone to realize we're actually inbounding the ball. Kind of seems like that's the key to running their high stack set, everyone jockeys for position and then they make a sharp basket cut. They have scored on BLOB's pretty frequently this...
See my old post linked above; Back in January, the discussion was had about whether SFC was a hard place to play, and KenPom has a pretty good Home Court Advantage ranking system for this. You can find an explanation of it here: https://kenpom.com/blog/how-to-measure-site-specific-home-court-advantage-part-two/
Surprisingly enough, SFC is actually up in the rankings since January; It's still in the bottom half of the B1G, but has increased from a D-1 ranking of 176 to a D-1 ranking of 118, so a reason to be optimistic!
Govoner Vaugn Fan
- New Orleans
I heard Shauna Green is going to bring her team to a couple of men's practices and hold a clinic on 3pt shooting./s
We took 250 more threes in 25 than in 23.
Wow I knew last year was bad but sheesh. Just get near the top 100 last year and that’s a significantly more potent team. Hard to understand as I do think that team had a lot of shooters, they just didn’t perform to expectations.
They took a lot of bad 3s......
analytics are a tool but if they aren't paired with common sense then they become a crutch. we clearly needed to shoot less 3s as a team last year and refused to.
Brad has shown to be a great at pivoting in so many ways with this program, it's truly impressive, but I think this was a miss last year.
They did but the amount of bricked open 3s was not insignificant either. The decision making could have been better along with the execution. Clearly misled often about how good of a shooting team they were “on paper” all year
Way too many!
Well, people pointed to offensive numbers that were good in defending the approach. I kinda doubt we could get away with it again but who knows.
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