Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#355      
SkyysNotFalling
Illiniguy13 said:
I’m saying this as objectively as I can without the orange-colored glasses, but if you look at this years transfer portal and teams with openings, it’d be tough to find a better fit than Vaaks in the Illini offense. It’s a picture-perfect marriage.
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Yep. This’ll be year 4 in a row of having a 6”6+ lead guard. Third straight with one that is a shooting threat. Brad has a type.

EDIT: And if you want to argue that TJ was our lead guard in 2024- go ahead.
 
#356      
Combo
Illiniguy13 said:
I’m saying this as objectively as I can without the orange-colored glasses, but if you look at this years transfer portal and teams with openings, it’d be tough to find a better fit than Vaaks in the Illini offense. It’s a picture-perfect marriage.
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I agree. Offensively, he might be the perfect PG for what we run. Defensively is what worries me.
 
#361      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
This would be my best guess at our scoring (keep in mind it's pre decimals):

Andrej - 17
Mirk - 14
Vaaks - 13
Tomi - 12
Coleman - 10
Z - 7
Jake - 5
Morillo - 4
#9thMan (my bet would be Zens) - 2
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My slight tweak would be David at 15 and Tomi at 11 (there's only so many pts to go around, so probably gotta be a 1 for 1).
 
#362      
Fly Illini Fly!
So, our assist leader is always our minutes leader:

2026 - Wagler (led team in both)
2025 - KJ (led team in both)
2024 - Domask (led team in both)
2023 - Coleman (led team in both)
2022 - Trent (led team in both)
2021 - Ayo (led team in both)
2020 - Ayo (led team in both)
2019 - Ayo (led team in both)
2018 - Trent led team in minutes but had 3.1 assists; 0.1 shy of TeJohn Lucas who had 3.2

Stefan Vaaks your table is ready.
 
#364      
bavanga3
Fly Illini Fly! said:
This would be my best guess at our scoring (keep in mind it's pre decimals):

Andrej - 17
Mirk - 14
Vaaks - 13
Tomi - 12
Coleman - 10
Z - 7
Jake - 5
Morillo - 4
#9thMan (my bet would be Zens) - 2
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Not sure Andrej will have the ball in his hands enough for 17/game. I wouldnt be surprised if Coleman outscored him based on his position and aggressiveness.
 
#365      
Fly Illini Fly!
bavanga3 said:
Coleman is the PG, not Vaaks.
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Nope, Vaaks is PG.
bavanga3 said:
Not sure Andrej will have the ball in his hands enough for 17/game. I wouldnt be surprised if Coleman outscored him based on his position and aggressiveness.
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Did he have the ball in his hands this year? Again, taking his exact ppp rate from this past season, we end up at 17/game (just by upping our pace and his minutes):
Fly Illini Fly! said:
A little more on this:

So, Andrej last season averaged 0.312 points per possession (second on the team; Keaton was 0.322).

Illinois averaged 65.7 possessions per 40 minutes and Andrej played 26.3 minutes per game.

How we mathematically get to his season average of 13.5 points per game:

0.312 x 65.7 =20.498 points per 40

(20.498 / 40) x 26.3 =13.477 points per game

However, I think it’s reasonable to think that both our pace and Andrej’s minutes will increase from this year to next.

Our poss per 40 of 65.7 ranked in the 300s this past season. Just as a guess, let’s say it increases to 68.0 next season (which would rank around 200 nationally).

Now, let’s say Andrej’s minutes increase to 32.0 per game.

Taking the exact ppp rate he had last year (0.312), here’s his projected point per game in that circumstance:

0.312 x 68.0 =21.216

(21.216 / 40) x 32 =

16.973 (would be shown as 17.0 on all the stats sites since they round to tenth)

Really think he’s the sleeper B10 POY candidate no one’s talking about.
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#370      
Fly Illini Fly!
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Just curious... what would be Mirk's points with that same criteria?
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Mirk averaged 0.276 in 29.5 minutes per game. At 68 team possessions (per 40) and 32 minutes per game:

0.276 x 68 = 18.768 per 40

(18.768 / 40) x 32 = 15.01 points per game

I will say that it's generally unlikely for bigs to play 32min/game (~30 would be more realistic). If Mirk averages 17/game, it likely has to do with significant improvement to his game, rather than just increased volume.

With Andrej, the scoring talent is so readymade. Plus, there's lots of room for that 3pt shot to improve. He just needs to stay healthy (and preferably not have two leg injuries in a season's span).
 
#371      
Second place is 1st loser
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Mirk averaged 0.276 in 29.5 minutes per game. At 68 team possessions (per 40) and 32 minutes per game:

0.276 x 68 = 18.768 per 40

(18.768 / 40) x 32 = 15.01 points per game

I will say that it's generally unlikely for bigs to play 32min/game (~30 would be more realistic). If Mirk averages 17/game, it likely has to do with significant improvement to his game, rather than just increased volume.

With Andrej, the scoring talent is so readymade. Plus, there's lots of room for that 3pt shot to improve. He just needs to stay healthy (and preferably not have two leg injuries in a season's span).
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I don't think we can extrapolate numbers from last year because the whole dynamic of what we had last year changes and roles change. Keaton became the ball dominant player on the roster and it wasn't by a little, it was by a lot. That's what happens with lottery picks. The rise of Wagler's numbers were the demise of other players, most notably Boswell and Andrej. I'm guessing that Drej was supposed to be that guy or at very least, share duties with Kylan.

Drej also for injured, which ultimately resulted him coming off of the bench.

There was a lot of unusual things that occurred last year that nobody planned on.

Does anyone know what Drej's role is going to be? Was he promised that role that Keaton had? If so, his responsibilities change enormously. Does Vaaks and Coleman turn into NBA caliber players and one being the go to guy? Do neither? Does Drej continue the effort we saw on defense on the NCAA Tournament or does it revert?

We, very much including me, have a recency bias with Drej. Without that Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament exhibition, he wouldn't have made it to the combine and the feeling that we absolutely need him to come back wouldn't be the story of the off-season. We would have been looking for an upgrade.

NCAA Tournament Adrej is All Big Ten with honorable mention All America. December, January and February Drej and the frustration with him because of the uneven play and poor decision making will be the result and the discussion with turn to 5 for 5.

Quite frankly, I have never seen Vaaks play for 1 live second, we don't know of the growth of Coleman and the guy that people are leaving out is Tomi. He was very, very poor for a LONG stretch of the season. Some even went in record as saying he was unplayable. Then, the BTT and NCAAT came and he was back. If we get NCAAT Tomi back, the offense will run through him, which again changes everything. Z went on a stretch where he couldn't throw it into the ocean. More people went on record in saying he was unplayable.

We went on a stretch where we lost 4 of 6. It aligned with the injuries and guys coming back.

We can't ignore these things because they can't reoccur for us to get where we all want to be. Nuclear Keaton isn't walking through those doors, so the entire style will be reimagined. When that happens, some thrive, some stay as is and some regress.

It's going to be extremely interesting, especially early. My hope is that Drej isn't automatically assuming the role of the ball dominant player on the roster and he's not getting 19 points on 7 of 22 shooting.

The take away is that extrapolation isn't going to work because it means that someone like Tomi had a bad year. Two years ago, he was the most pivotal guy on the roster and the focus. My guess is that Brad is banking on that resurgence and what that means for shots....who knows.
 
#375      
From the cheap seats
I may have misunderstood it, but one story I read about the NCAA vote in June about age and pro league restrictions said that players for the 2026-27 season could choose to play under current rules and that every player would fall under the new rules the following season.
 
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