Illini Basketball 2026-2027

NarrowJ · Jul 21, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
Houston had 3 big weaknesses: they didn’t get to the foul line, they didn’t get to the rim, and they had a tendency to give up offensive rebounds.

None of those areas were particularly exploitable with Florida.

Florida had some crazy weaknesses as well. Look at that 3 point shooting percentage and you see one of the biggest weaknesses of any of the top seeds.

Going into the tourney, Houston was in front of them in Torvik, one spot behind them in the polls, and then didn’t get beat by a 9 seed, and also Florida wasn’t playing in their hometown.

Make no mistake, Illinois earned that F4 appearance.

Rap47 · Jul 21, 2026

Houston had 3 big weaknesses: they didn’t get to the foul line, they didn’t get to the rim, and they had a tendency to give up offensive rebounds.

None of those areas were particularly exploitable with Florida.

Illini would have beat Houston nine out if ten times because they were too big for them and Houston's guards were not as good defensively as Houston usually is.

Fly Illini Fly! · Jul 21, 2026

WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Alot of it is the primary ball handler. It's unlikely Vaaks will replicate Keaton's level of poise and feel (though he should still be good).

It's highly likely that we'll be worse offensively and defensively next year.

Hopefully the big ten as a whole is worse.

Last year’s offense did set a very high bar to replicate.

IMO, the two main reasons we were that successful was 1) not turning the ball over and 2) offensive rebounding.

Our 13.1 TOV per 100 possessions ranked 10th best in the nation (5th best in the P4). And our 39.2% OREB rate was the 3rd highest in the country.

We weren’t good in those areas; we were exceptional. Not only did we steal extra chances to score with OREBs, we also didn’t give those opportunities back with turnovers. Pair that with our skill, spacing, and firepower — you’re going to have an elite offense. It’s just inevitable.

…..

At numerous points last year, people would come here criticizing Tyler and our offense because they were displeased with our 3pt shooting. Either we missed too many, or the attempts were too many, whatever.

Except… in almost all those games, we would wind up scoring like 1.25 points per possession or more. How? Because of the offensive rebounding.

It’s the luxury we gave ourselves for doing it at such a high level — the shots didn’t NEED to fall to have a productive outing. We missed threes, but rebounded and scored on 2nd and 3rd opportunities. Yeah the 3-pointers were missed on the stat sheet… but on the POSSESSIONS, the ball found the hoop, which is the only thing that matters.

…..

Overall, I’d have less concern about our rebounding keeping its course. We literally brought back the entire frontcourt. It’s what they’re here to do, quite legitimately.

Retaining that lucrative turnover rate though… I’d have a little more questions about. Especially with having a brand new backcourt.

Wagler’s AST to TOV was 2.4, which is very good, and yes that’s who had the ball most of the time. But Boswell, as our two-guard, was also exceptional with a 2.7.

It just shows how big the guards are — both Vaaks and Coleman — in terms of X factors. If they can maintain our surgical approach, while not being erratic… it’ll take our offense to another level once again.

BretMyBeachHouse · Jul 21, 2026

The idea that getting Houston is "lucky" is absurd. They were a 2 seed for a reason. Matchups goes both ways. Underwood had a great plan and we executed.

Likewise, saying Iowa was not "lucky" is also absurd. Yes, they were on a "heater". But there is no universe in which anyone would have preferred playing Florida to playing Iowa.

NarrowJ · Jul 21, 2026

BretMyBeachHouse said:
The idea that getting Houston is "lucky" is absurd. They were a 2 seed for a reason. Matchups goes both ways. Underwood had a great plan and we executed.

Likewise, saying Iowa was not "lucky" is also absurd. Yes, they were on a "heater". But there is no universe in which anyone would have preferred playing Florida to playing Iowa.

Yes, of course we preferred to play Iowa over Florida.

Michigan dodged Iowa State (and you could say they were lucky to not get Duke, who had previously beat them, in the Final).

UConn and Arizona had tougher paths with no upsets.

Just happens one way or the other sometimes.

I'm happy with our path, don't think it was 'easy' by any stretch.

PleaseMakeABowlGame · Jul 21, 2026

I'm happy with our path, don't think it was 'easy' by any stretch.

It was compared to the OTHER FINAL 4 teams.

We only had to beat 1 top seven seed.

UCONN had to beat 3.

Arizona had to beat 2.

Michigan had to beat 2. But did dodge ISU, and their best team faced was a 4 seed, so that one’s debatable.

Michigan was a 1seed though. For a 3, getting that kind of draw is extremely favorable. Usually teams with our seeding need to beat a 2 AND a 1 to sniff a final 4 (as we saw with the TSJ team).

Oracle21 · Jul 21, 2026

I think the team has a high floor but the ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other top teams. I think you know what to expect from Mirk, Stojakovic, and Tomi. So the season really comes down to whether Vaaks/Coleman are better or worse than Wagler/Boswell.

BWA · Jul 21, 2026

Oracle21 said:
I think the team has a high floor but the ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other top teams. I think you know what to expect from Mirk, Stojakovic, and Tomi. So the season really comes down to whether Vaaks/Coleman are better or worse than Wagler/Boswell.

Considering Mirk was a true freshman who supposedly has leaned up a ton already and Stojakovic is a senior with NBA aspirations who had a bad ankle a lot of the year, this seems like a crazy take to think they can’t improve.

Tomi, Maybe I can see your point, but even just getting back to his first year quality would be an improvement on last year.

Illiniguy13 · Jul 21, 2026

Oracle21 said:
I think the team has a high floor but the ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other top teams. I think you know what to expect from Mirk, Stojakovic, and Tomi. So the season really comes down to whether Vaaks/Coleman are better or worse than Wagler/Boswell.

If you took the 25/26 version all returners + Vaaks, that’s a strong team. *IF* we see an improved 26/27 version of Mirk/Vaaks/Stoja/Tomi/Z, that’s championship firepower. All of them won’t pop, some may even take a step back & health is always a factor…We’ll see…but if like, 3 of those dudes improve, see ya in Detroit

BretMyBeachHouse · Jul 21, 2026

Yes, of course we preferred to play Iowa over Florida.

Michigan dodged Iowa State (and you could say they were lucky to not get Duke, who had previously beat them, in the Final).

UConn and Arizona had tougher paths with no upsets.

Just happens one way or the other sometimes.

I'm happy with our path, don't think it was 'easy' by any stretch.

Definitely not easy. could have been harder. Houston was a very real test and we came through with flying colors.

I've been thinking a bit about this with the USC/Musselman conversation. He got on radars with his Nevada upset of 2 seeded cincy. He goes to Arkansas. One of his E8 trips was by defeating 1 seeded Gonzaga after getting to the S16 by defeating a 12 and 13. The other was by defeating 15 seeded Oral Roberts.

So he had a good deal of luck but on the surface he looks like he's great in the tournament. I"m not saying he's not good. But I'm definitely saying his performance wasn't that special.

At this point, other than Hurley, I don't see a significant difference maker among the top 20 to 30 coaches. Look at Sampson and BU. Split in two big tournament matches. I think coaching mattered a lot in both. Some days your plan works and the guys execute. Some days they don't.

lstewart53x3 · Jul 21, 2026

Oracle21 said:
I think the team has a high floor but the ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other top teams. I think you know what to expect from Mirk, Stojakovic, and Tomi. So the season really comes down to whether Vaaks/Coleman are better or worse than Wagler/Boswell.

Do we, though? Inside the building, some are saying he’s the best player Brad has ever had. Which would be a small step up from the player he was last year.

Fly Illini Fly! · Jul 21, 2026

lstewart53x3 said:
Do we, though? Inside the building, some are saying he’s the best player Brad has ever had. Which would be a small step up from the player he was last year.

This isn’t verifiable, at all.

The sleepers guys are known for spewing narratives for their audience.

Emerson Bigguns · Jul 21, 2026

lstewart53x3 said:
Do we, though? Inside the building, some are saying he’s the best player Brad has ever had. Which would be a small step up from the player he was last year.

If anyone is interested in selling their Mirkovic stock, I’m buying. I’ve got some cottage cheese, a Talking Heads record, and my beach house to trade.
Can’t wait to see him unleashed after this offseason.

CoalCity · Jul 21, 2026

Emerson Bigguns said:
If anyone is interested in selling their Mirkovic stock, I’m buying. I’ve got some cottage cheese, a Talking Heads record, and my beach house to trade.
Can’t wait to see him unleashed after this offseason.

Amen brother! This guy passed up the chance to play on his national team to stay here and continue working with Fletch and bonding with the team. Unleashed is the right word

Fly Illini Fly! · Jul 21, 2026

Oracle21 said:
I think the team has a high floor but the ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other top teams. I think you know what to expect from Mirk, Stojakovic, and Tomi. So the season really comes down to whether Vaaks/Coleman are better or worse than Wagler/Boswell.

Guards control your ceiling. Bigs control your floor.

No different for any other team.

lstewart53x3 · Jul 21, 2026

Fly Illini Fly! said:
This isn’t verifiable, at all.

The sleepers guys are known for spewing narratives for their audience.

Okay, sure. How about this:

Mirk was what, a top 100 player in college basketball last year?

This coming year, he’s currently #4 in the Player Of The Year betting odds.

That projection would take him from a B1G Honorable Mention to 1st Team All American.

Like I said, a small step up from the player he was last year.

Oracle21 · Jul 21, 2026

BWA said:
Considering Mirk was a true freshman who supposedly has leaned up a ton already and Stojakovic is a senior with NBA aspirations who had a bad ankle a lot of the year, this seems like a crazy take to think they can’t improve.

Tomi, Maybe I can see your point, but even just getting back to his first year quality would be an improvement on last year.

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

Bleedorangeandblue44 · Jul 21, 2026

This just came through my feed today and am just posting it for any of our younger Illini fans don't know why we hate Indiana

GOD bless you Lou Henson for fighting the good fight all those years. Your efforts are paying off through all these years and especially now with Brad who doesen't take this kind of crap

I have no idea how Illini fans ever took playing against Bobby Knight

PepeSilvia · Jul 22, 2026

Houston was higher in Torvik (4th) than Florida (5th) going into the tournament last year, and we played them in Houston.... so I won't fall victim to "we got lucky". If we can beat Houston, we can beat Florida. Both were extremely good teams. Iowa was 22nd on Torvik and a 9 seed: a good team that was on an absolute heater coming into our matchup with them.

I do remember when the draw first came out, many people here were upset because we had to play Houston in Houston.

Just because we won, doesn’t make the task of winning that game any easier.

The idea that getting Houston is "lucky" is absurd. They were a 2 seed for a reason. Matchups goes both ways. Underwood had a great plan and we executed.

Likewise, saying Iowa was not "lucky" is also absurd. Yes, they were on a "heater". But there is no universe in which anyone would have preferred playing Florida to playing Iowa.

I'm not saying that playing Houston was an easy game but matchup wise it was imo the best matchup of all the #2 seeds in the tournament for Illinois.

The other 3 #2 seeds were Iowa State, UConn, and Purdue. UConn beat us in the final four and non con. Iowa State with Jefferson healthy was far more dynamic than Houston imo. Then I think Illinois was better than Purdue but it took Wagler dropping 46 on 13-17 to beat them at Mackey and Purdue was winning that game with 3 minutes left.

Houston had 3 small guards that settled for jumpshots while being an average shooting team paired with a freshman center and an undersized defense only big in Tugler. Plus, their defensive scheme relied on trapping pick and rolls.

Illinois was a nightmare matchup from a size perspective and the fact that Illinois has 3 skilled euro bigs that are legitimately better passers than a lot of guards. Basically, Illinois had size on the perimeter(Wagler, Stojakovic, etc.) to pass over the double team to the vacated big man and then bigs capable of then making the 2nd pass to the open guy against a scrambling defense. Houston trapping honestly worked against them and created open looks for the Illini and put them in bad positions to rebound while also giving up size.

I think there was a game plan for Houston where they forgo trapping on defense and utilize their guards quickness to attack the basket where they could have created a lot of issues for Illinois. However, Sampson has played that defense for years to great success and was not going to change.

Brosky · Jul 22, 2026

This roster is absolutely loaded, so we need to enjoy it while we can. What additions or subtractions will occur down the line is impossible to guess. So I say to all of you who are younger (let's just say under 50) relish this stuff in the moment. That's what I did with the 88-89 Flyin' Illini and that special bunch in 2004-05. It was only yesterday.

bleedorange and blue · Jul 22, 2026

NarrowJ said:
Well... I said "might be" because I expected someone like you to call me an "insane homer" (or some other silly ad hominem thing which serves no purpose other than to insult someone).

Anyway, his ORtg last year was 149.0 which led the nation. He's insanely good at what he does, which is a lot different than what Boozer/Foster do.

Cayden Boozer ORtg 122.1
Caleb Foster ORtg 119.0

This isn't to say Jake is more valuable than those guys because they are ballhandlers.

Really was meaning "at their respective positions" - Jake is a wing, Big Z is a center, Boozer is a point guard, and I guess Foster is a combo guard.

If he's 2nd best, instead of 1st... is it really an "insane homer take" or was I off by, like, maybe a guy or two?

So, in summary:

- "might be", not "is"
- "at their respective positions"
- maybe he's 2nd or 3rd best instead of the best (at his position)

Didn't mean to irritate anyone with this "insane homer take".

Personally I like your attitude and approach, from another insane Homer. Just remember this time last year anyone saying Keaton would be a top 5 draft pick was called,,,,,wait for it,,,,and insane homer

bleedorange and blue · Jul 22, 2026

Cofie was a combine invite. He's definitely starting.

Rothstein 45 rankings have it:

G Alijah Arenas

G Rodney Rice

G KJ Lewis

F Jacob Cofie

C Eric Reibe

Projected Bench: Adonis Ratliff (5 star), Darius Ratliff (5 star), Christian Collins (5 star), Jalen Cox (All Patriot League 1st team).

How can a coach be so average with so many 5 stars???

Big Jack · Jul 22, 2026

This just came through my feed today and am just posting it for any of our younger Illini fans don't know why we hate Indiana

GOD bless you Lou Henson for fighting the good fight all those years. Your efforts are paying off through all these years and especially now with Brad who doesen't take this kind of crap

I have no idea how Illini fans ever took playing against Bobby Knight

What a classic. I loved Lou but he was not in the same league with Bobby on game planning or execution.

Big Jack · Jul 22, 2026

Oracle21 said:
Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

IMHO Mirk is the ultimate team player. He is going to do what wins games, he hates losing. So if that means he needs to score he will, if he needs to rebound and find open teammates he will. I desperately hope all of this preseason yapping about how great he is or will be changes that. Kid is a winner period. Keaton was great but I am not so certain he was the mvp of last year's team.

Calvin · Jul 22, 2026

lstewart53x3 said:
Okay, sure. How about this:

Mirk was what, a top 100 player in college basketball last year?

This coming year, he’s currently #4 in the Player Of The Year betting odds.

That projection would take him from a B1G Honorable Mention to 1st Team All American.

Like I said, a small step up from the player he was last year.

For my money, Mirk's return is the biggest piece for another run. I think he brings a swagger and attitude that you need to be a championship level team. For individual honors, not that we really care, I wouldn't be surprised if no one is statistically dominant on the team and Vaks gets a lot of press for the role he's given and his shooting.

Torvik 2027 Team Talent Rating