Illini Basketball 2026-2027

Oracle21 said:

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

Click to expand...

Sure...I'll bite...

Stojakovic - I'll start by saying that "he is who he is" isn't even accurate. End of the season Andre wasn't the same as beginning of the season Andrej. The guy who in November and December would get pulled to the bench because he wasn't putting effort on defense and the glass became our best defender in the tournament. Sure, there were the injuries, but I do think it took him about half the season to buy into what his role on this team should be, which is focus on all the other areas of teh game other than scoring, and that th rest would come into place. Come March...it clicked, and he really saw the benefits of that fall into place, and seemed to really buy into being a team player. So...yeah...I think there is still some more growth there for Andrej.

Counterpoint to the argument that Boswell didn't take that year 2 leap...I think part of that is that his role changed with the emergence of Wagler being the absolute beast that he was. His 3 point shot never really came around, and I honestly don't really think he was the same defensively after his hand injury, but...he was an ultimate team player, team leader, and his decision making with the ball was vastly improved. He had 2.1 TO per game in 24-25, and cut it 1.1 TO per game in 25-26. His points and assist totals remained around the same both season. He was expected to become the true lead guard his senior year, but he ended up really serving a more similar role as he did his junior year because Wagler was better than anyone imagined.

Mirk - I will say this...I have this weird fear in the back of my mind that Mirk's sophomore All-American hype triggers some bad memories of all the hype surrounding Curbelo's sophomore year where he'd get the keys and be able to truly shine...but I don't think this is really the same scenario. For one, I think Mirk is wired WAY differently than Curbelo. Mirk is just an insane competitor, and you can see from the development of his body, his decision to stay in Champaign all summer and skip playing for the national team, etc...he just seems primed to take that next step forward. Will he shoot better than 38% from 3...seems unlikely, and he may even drop a bit. But he will continue to be an elite rebounder, have more usage and develop his game at the rim, an dhopefully improve on defense. I just think he can be a monster and hard to guard for a lot of teams.

Tomi being the comp to Mirk is a bad argument. Tomi's role had to change quite a bit this past season, plus he was also hurt and then out of shape, and out of rhythm, and adapting to the role. We saw him finally start clicking into it in March. So...I don't think this is a fair comparison.

All that to say...is it guaranteed that Mirk will be a 1st Team All-Big Ten, or All-American, or anything he's being hyped up to be? No...there are never guarantees. But...it seems weird to think we shouldn't be excited about ALL the signs that point to the potential for him to have a monster season.

Oracle21 said:

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

Click to expand...

He drastically improved last year. Like leaps and bounds

Also, Stojakovic has one area that he can absolutely improve that wouldn't be anything new. He was a roughly 30% three point shooter his first two years, and shot 24.4% last year. Get back to "normal" and that right there is an improvement over what we saw from him last year.

Oracle21 said:

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

Click to expand...

Your Stojakovic point remains the most hysterical part here. Year 2 transfer jumps are so eminent for so many players, every year.

Go look at Tarris Reed’s stats, first year at UCONN compared to the next.

Go look at Joshua Jefferson’s stats, first year at Iowa State compared to the next.

Go look at Mark Mitchell’s stats, first year at Missouri compared to the next.

Go look at Terrance Shannon’s stats, first year at Illinois compared to the next.

Go look at Mark Sears’s stats, first year at BAMA compared to the next.

Go look at Tristen Newton’s stats, first year at UCONN compared to the next.

There’s just so many examples, that we don’t have the time to list them. EVERY ONE of those guys follow your “senior” criteria.

…..

Even within our program, Jake and Ben got a ton better their second year here.

It’s just unfortunate Boswell had the injury. His AST to TOV increased from 1.6 to 2.7. His 3pt% increased from 24.5% to 30.7%. His points per 100 possessions increased from 21.9 to 24.9.

…..

Andrej averaged 13.5 points in 26.3 minutes last year. Multiply that exact scoring rate by 32 minutes and you get 16.4pts.

He’ll be our top defensive stopper, and should make improvements to that 3pt% (FWIW, he shot the exact percentage that Boswell did in 2025; I’d gladly take 30.7% from Andrej next year).

The worst thing Keaton Wagler did to me was make be start believing in off-season hype again.

Alex Legion to Austin Hutchinson and everyone in between broke my caring about offseason reporting on practices.

Now its got me thinking Mirk is the best player in CBB. Still unsure if I’m happy or annoyed at this change in mind.

Fly Illini Fly! said:

Your Stojakovic point remains the most hysterical part here. Year 2 transfer jumps are so eminent for so many players, every year.

Go look at Tarris Reed’s stats, first year at UCONN compared to the next.

Go look at Joshua Jefferson’s stats, first year at Iowa State compared to the next.

Go look at Mark Mitchell’s stats, first year at Missouri compared to the next.

Go look at Terrance Shannon’s stats, first year at Illinois compared to the next.

Go look at Mark Sears’s stats, first year at BAMA compared to the next.

Go look at Tristen Newton’s stats, first year at UCONN compared to the next.

There’s just so many examples, that we don’t have the time to list them. EVERY ONE of those guys follow your “senior” criteria.

…..

Even within our program, Jake and Ben got a ton better their second year here.

It’s just unfortunate Boswell had the injury. His AST to TOV increased from 1.6 to 2.7. His 3pt% increased from 24.5% to 30.7%. His points per 100 possessions increased from 21.9 to 24.9.

…..

Andrej averaged 13.5 points in 26.3 minutes last year. Multiply that exact scoring rate by 32 minutes and you get 16.4pts.

He’ll be our top defensive stopper, and should make improvements to that 3pt% (FWIW, he shot the exact percentage that Boswell did in 2025; I’d gladly take 30.7% from Andrej next year).

Click to expand...

Everyone keeps talking about how great Mirk will be, but I pause with him being our leading scorer because:

1) Vaaks will be the highest usage player
2) Stoj averaged 3 less minutes per game last year and still scored more points.

Those are the three engines of our offense in whichever way. I’d expect all of them to be above 14/game.

thefalcon5 said:

The worst thing Keaton Wagler did to me was make be start believing in off-season hype again.

Alex Legion to Austin Hutchinson and everyone in between broke my caring about offseason reporting on practices.

Now its got me thinking Mirk is the best player in CBB. Still unsure if I’m happy or annoyed at this change in mind.

Click to expand...

I'm with you here. Keaton was an absolute unicorn. We've seen hype videos EVERY summer of guys who were do to break out and, outside of Keaton, most of those that we were stoked about transferred. Lol

I remain cautious with carefully edited videos.

PleaseMakeABowlGame said:

Everyone keeps talking about how great Mirk will be, but I pause with him being our leading scorer because:

1) Vaaks will be the highest usage player
2) Stoj averaged 3 less minutes per game last year and still scored more points.

Those are the three engines of our offense in whichever way. I’d expect all of them to be above 14/game.

Click to expand...

My big question with Mirkovic is does the 3 pointer stay the same?

Tomislav shot it 35.7% his first year, and dropped to 31.3% the following year. His shooting drop went alongside his scoring drop (though I do think Mirk will have more usage).

37.5% is an extremely high standard to replicate, especially for a guy in Mirk that wasn't known as a shooter coming in. If it drops to 34%, then no I wouldn't think he'll be our leading scorer. Vaaks will be right on that doorstep.

Vaaks is proven P5 starter. I trust the videos.

Coleman dominated in HS and Fiba U18. Doing the same in college right way may or may not happen.

Andrej, Tommy, David, Big Z and Jake are sure things.

Replacing an AA is always hard. we stumbled year after Ayo left, year after Kofi left, year after TSJ left, hard to guess what will happen this time,

So 150-200 attempts is a large enough sample to call Boswell (and even far less attempts for Stojakovic) poor outside shooters, but not enough to call Mirkovic a good one. Little double-standardish but alright.

I do want to be mindful of sample size, but at the same time as we see in the case of Vaaks that extremely high volume/more attempts doesn't necessarily mean better sample; it could mean he was taking a lot of shot-clock bailouts or lesser advised shots in a subpar offensive system.

Oracle21 said:

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

Click to expand...

I think you hit it on the head with Mirkovic (though I vehemently disagree with your Stojakovic logic - it's an awful take).

I'm struggling to see where these monster improvements are coming from.

He shot 37.5% from 3 last year. Do we really think that goes up? I think its perhaps more likely that goes down.

His 3p attempt volume was also high, at 4.1 per game. That's a lot for a 6"9 power forward. We already have a ton of 3 point attempts booked between Vaaks, Coleman, and Tomislav.

His 2p percentage was 56%. That's likely the biggest area of improvement, but still, there's a cap to it. Kofi, for example, was at 59%. (I see Tomislav improved a lot, but his attempt volume was also very low, which helped)

All things considered, we're talking marginal improvements. Not exactly things that would make him the best player in the country. We also have lots of mouths to feed amongst our starters.

Oracle21 said:

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Click to expand...

ah, ok, got it. how do you account for Ayo's NBA growth?

WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:

I think you hit it on the head with Mirkovic (though I vehemently disagree with your Stojakovic logic).

I'm struggling to see where these monster improvements are coming from.

He shot 37.5% from 3 last year. Do we really think that goes up? I think its perhaps more likely that goes down.

His 3p attempt volume was also high, at 4.1 per game. That's a lot for a 6"9 power forward. We already have a ton of 3 point attempts booked between Vaaks, Coleman, and Tomislav.

His 2p percentage was 56%. That's likely the biggest area of improvement, but still, there's a cap to it. Kofi, for example, was at 59%. (I see Tomislav improved a lot, but his attempt volume was also very low, which helped)

All things considered, we're talking marginal improvements. Not exactly things that would make him the best player in the country. We also have lots of mouths to feed amongst our starters.

Click to expand...

I haven’t seen anyone say he’s going to be the best player in the country, but he is currently 4th in player of the year betting odds. So it’s not just homer Illini fans who think he will be one of the best players in the country.

NarrowJ said:

So 150-200 attempts is a large enough sample to call Boswell (and even far less attempts for Stojakovic) poor outside shooters, but not enough to call Mirkovic a good one. Little double-standardish but alright.

I do want to be mindful of sample size, but at the same time as we see in the case of Vaaks that extremely high volume/more attempts doesn't necessarily mean better sample; it could mean he was taking a lot of shot-clock bailouts or lesser advised shots in a subpar offensive system.

Click to expand...

If a player shows improvement over their career, there's a good reason to exclude prior seasons. But in the case of regression or up-and-down variance, I'm not so sure. So we have:
Boswell: 166-508 (32.7%)
Stojakovic: 95-315 (30.2%)
Mirkovic: 57-152 (37.5%)

We can also incorporate their FT stats to inform a baseline then generate estimates and ranges for their presumed historical "true" 3pt%:
Boswell: 34.2% (31.0-37.4%)
Stojakovic: 33.2% (29.6-36.9%)
Mirkovic: 35.8% (31.6-40.2%)

Any future changes in skill, role, or shot selection are another matter of course

Fly Illini Fly! said:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2079549353828466844

Click to expand...

I like this take, but remain cautious. Our big guards can distribute and run the offense fine, but people are going to press us. BAM was effective against that, he bodied people out well while also handling the ball while accelerating.

Second place is 1st loser said:

I'm with you here. Keaton was an absolute unicorn. We've seen hype videos EVERY summer of guys who were do to break out and, outside of Keaton, most of those that we were stoked about transferred. Lol

I remain cautious with carefully edited videos.

Click to expand...

What's funny is that if you go back and look at the summer buzz on Wagler, it actually wasn't that much. Certainly less than some of the other names in the past. Where it really took off was the fall.

Why would 37% be so unlikely to improve upon? The power conference median is 35%. Literally several hundred players shot over 37.5% last year.

Why would 8 rebounds be so unlikely to improve upon? About 50 players averaged 9 rebounds or better. Steinbach averaged 12.

Oracle21 said:

Stojakovic is who he is and he’s played a ton of minutes in his career. I don’t see much growth there. I don’t see why anyone should expect more. If you’ve played major minutes from FR,SO,JR years are you really gonna be different as a senior? I certainly wouldn’t expect it. I saw this same argument put forth for Boswell his senior year and it didn’t happen for him either. By the time you are a senior and have played a ton you are who you are.

Click to expand...

Counterpoint - Terrance Shannon Jr. in his Fr./So./Jr. seasons vs. TSJ in his Sr. season vs. TSJ in his 5th yr SR. season

Also, if you actually look at the numbers, Boswell's Sr. season was a clear improvement over his Jr. season. It becomes especially obvious if you look at the per 100 poss. stats (which neutralizes the per game skews resulting from fewer possesions because of slower pace). He scored more points per 100 possessions, was more efficient in doing so, had the same number of assists despite yielding to Wagler as the primary initiator, with far fewer turnovers.

Oracle21 said:

Mirk was already really good as a freshman. He shot 37.5% from 3. But he has also been a pro for a few years now. Much like Tomi, I see lot of these Euro guys as more finished products. Tomi really didn’t make any leaps his second year. In fact he regressed in some ways. I don’t think Mirk will regress, but I think his ceiling is capped due to his athlecism. And again, he shot almost 38% from 3 and was a great rebounder. You really think he will be better than that?

Click to expand...

Mirk is 20 years old. He is going to develop like any other 20 year old. The fact that he played pro ball as an 18 year old doesn't somehow stunt his development. I mean, Messi was playing in the Barcelona youth academy as a 13 year old, and made his professional debut at 16. Was he a finished product at 16 then? At 18? At 20? Of course not. He kept getting better. Likewise Jokic, who played in the ABA until about the same age as Mirk, and was drafted into the NBA at 19. Was he an MVP level player immediately? By his 2nd year? No, he wasn't playing at an All-NBA, MVP caliber level until year 4 at age 23. Even though he had played pro ball in Europe for two seasons before coming to the NBA.

Joel Goodson said:

ah, ok, got it. how do you account for Ayo's NBA growth?

Click to expand...

This was TSJ's growth from JR. to SR. and SR. to 5th year SR.

the juiceman cometh said:

Counterpoint - Terrance Shannon Jr. in his Fr./So./Jr. seasons vs. TSJ in his Sr. season vs. TSJ in his 5th yr SR. season

Also, if you actually look at the numbers, Boswell's Sr. season was a clear improvement over his Jr. season. It becomes especially obvious if you look at the per 100 poss. stats (which neutralizes the per game skews resulting from fewer possesions because of slower pace). He scored more points per 100 possessions, was more efficient in doing so, had the same number of assists despite yielding to Wagler as the primary initiator, with far fewer turnovers.



Mirk is 20 years old. He is going to develop like any other 20 year old. The fact that he played pro ball as an 18 year old doesn't somehow stunt his development. I mean, Messi was playing in the Barcelona youth academy as a 13 year old, and made his professional debut at 16. Was he a finished product at 16 then? At 18? At 20? Of course not. He kept getting better. Likewise Jokic, who played in the ABA until about the same age as Mirk, and was drafted into the NBA at 19. Was he an MVP level player immediately? By his 2nd year? No, he wasn't playing at an All-NBA, MVP caliber level until year 4 at age 23. Even though he had played pro ball in Europe for two seasons before coming to the NBA.

Click to expand...

Yes and regarding Mirk getting enough usage:

Vaaks will certainly be the lead guard and that comes with usage.

But the staff has also shown that the best player will likely have the most usage.

Last year, that happened to be our lead guard, Keaton. But in 2024, TJ, not our lead guard, lead the team in usage. In 2023, TJ again, not our lead guard, lead the team in usage. In 2022, Kofi, not our lead guard, lead the team in usage.

So if the staff truly believes Mirk is our best player, I imagine he’ll lead the team in usage.

Individual player progression/regression is a fun offseason topic and discussion. But I’m to the point, where outside chatter on 3pt %, I find all of it just that, a fun discussion.

The offensive is such that if one player takes a dip, I’m more than confident it’s because a player elsewhere has stepped up.

To me, the real question to the team ceiling is defense. The floor will be high again due to just the size and rebounding, but how real was the March run on defense? Are we a 20-35th ranked group defensively, or can we actually dial this up to 10-20th range?

thefalcon5 said:

The worst thing Keaton Wagler did to me was make be start believing in off-season hype again.

Alex Legion to Austin Hutchinson and everyone in between broke my caring about offseason reporting on practices.

Now its got me thinking Mirk is the best player in CBB. Still unsure if I’m happy or annoyed at this change in mind.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I think Keaton was the exception - that rare instance of a player actually meeting (and surpassing) the preseason hype.

BretMyBeachHouse said:

What's funny is that if you go back and look at the summer buzz on Wagler, it actually wasn't that much. Certainly less than some of the other names in the past. Where it really took off was the fall.

Click to expand...

This is true, insiders were talking like he’d be a rotation player; not that he’d be an All-American.

As a lower ranked recruit, merely implying he’d play a good amount was deemed “summer hype”.