Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
ah, ok, got it. how do you account for Ayo's NBA growth?
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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ah, ok, got it. how do you account for Ayo's NBA growth?
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I haven’t seen anyone say he’s going to be the best player in the country, but he is currently 4th in player of the year betting odds. So it’s not just homer Illini fans who think he will be one of the best players in the country.
If a player shows improvement over their career, there's a good reason to exclude prior seasons. But in the case of regression or up-and-down variance, I'm not so sure. So we have:
Boswell: 166-508 (32.7%)
Stojakovic: 95-315 (30.2%)
Mirkovic: 57-152 (37.5%)
We can also incorporate their FT stats to inform a baseline then generate estimates and ranges for their presumed historical "true" 3pt%:
Boswell: 34.2% (31.0-37.4%)
Stojakovic: 33.2% (29.6-36.9%)
Mirkovic: 35.8% (31.6-40.2%)
Any future changes in skill, role, or shot selection are another matter of course
I like this take, but remain cautious. Our big guards can distribute and run the offense fine, but people are going to press us. BAM was effective against that, he bodied people out well while also handling the ball while accelerating.
What's funny is that if you go back and look at the summer buzz on Wagler, it actually wasn't that much. Certainly less than some of the other names in the past. Where it really took off was the fall.
Counterpoint - Terrance Shannon Jr. in his Fr./So./Jr. seasons vs. TSJ in his Sr. season vs. TSJ in his 5th yr SR. season
Also, if you actually look at the numbers, Boswell's Sr. season was a clear improvement over his Jr. season. It becomes especially obvious if you look at the per 100 poss. stats (which neutralizes the per game skews resulting from fewer possesions because of slower pace). He scored more points per 100 possessions, was more efficient in doing so, had the same number of assists despite yielding to Wagler as the primary initiator, with far fewer turnovers.
Mirk is 20 years old. He is going to develop like any other 20 year old. The fact that he played pro ball as an 18 year old doesn't somehow stunt his development. I mean, Messi was playing in the Barcelona youth academy as a 13 year old, and made his professional debut at 16. Was he a finished product at 16 then? At 18? At 20? Of course not. He kept getting better. Likewise Jokic, who played in the ABA until about the same age as Mirk, and was drafted into the NBA at 19. Was he an MVP level player immediately? By his 2nd year? No, he wasn't playing at an All-NBA, MVP caliber level until year 4 at age 23. Even though he had played pro ball in Europe for two seasons before coming to the NBA.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yes and regarding Mirk getting enough usage:
Vaaks will certainly be the lead guard and that comes with usage.
But the staff has also shown that the best player will likely have the most usage.
Last year, that happened to be our lead guard, Keaton. But in 2024, TJ, not our lead guard, lead the team in usage. In 2023, TJ again, not our lead guard, lead the team in usage. In 2022, Kofi, not our lead guard, lead the team in usage.
So if the staff truly believes Mirk is our best player, I imagine he’ll lead the team in usage.
Individual player progression/regression is a fun offseason topic and discussion. But I’m to the point, where outside chatter on 3pt %, I find all of it just that, a fun discussion.
The offensive is such that if one player takes a dip, I’m more than confident it’s because a player elsewhere has stepped up.
To me, the real question to the team ceiling is defense. The floor will be high again due to just the size and rebounding, but how real was the March run on defense? Are we a 20-35th ranked group defensively, or can we actually dial this up to 10-20th range?
The offensive is such that if one player takes a dip, I’m more than confident it’s because a player elsewhere has stepped up.
To me, the real question to the team ceiling is defense. The floor will be high again due to just the size and rebounding, but how real was the March run on defense? Are we a 20-35th ranked group defensively, or can we actually dial this up to 10-20th range?
Yeah, I think Keaton was the exception - that rare instance of a player actually meeting (and surpassing) the preseason hype.
This is true, insiders were talking like he’d be a rotation player; not that he’d be an All-American.
As a lower ranked recruit, merely implying he’d play a good amount was deemed “summer hype”.
Yes, but it's much more likely he's a 14-15 point per game scorer than a 18-19 point per game scorer (which feels like the expectation set).
Looking at his stats, there just isn't that many areas to make an absurd amount of improvement.
Unless the answer is just 30% usage. We have too many good players for that to be the case. This isn't Northwestern with a guy like Martenelli.
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Upsets happen. Wisconsin beat UM at Ann Arbor last year.
I sort of agree. He might avg slightly more assists. More scoring will be tough as I think Andrej and Vaaks are going to put up a lot of shots.
If he's in better shape, he might avg a few more min/game so that could help his averages. We probably need that from him since we don't have a backup like Ben that we expect to get a lot of PT.
It's a lot like the claims about Tomi last year. Not that he wasn't a good player, but he was our 5th best player instead of our best player.
Eventually that top guy will emerge. But on a team with this many options, you can't be so sure on one guy like that (on July 22nd especially).
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I mean it was literally the debate a few days ago? The guy said he'll average 20 and 10, because he's going to win National Player of the Year and that every winner in the last however many years has averaged 20.
Those are the perspectives I'm questioning. Not whether he'll be a good player or not.
Keaton was the mvp of last year's team. It's indisputable.
Mirkovic can score the same amount of points and still be a much better player. You're just taking what one random guy said and acting like the entire message board thinks it.
If we really did that, our offseason summary would look like:
- None of ESPN, The Athletic, Sports Illustrated, CBS, Torvik or Kenpom knows anything about how to rank teams, only random people on the internet are skilled at this
- We only have 7, maybe 8 (if we're lucky), guys on the roster who are good at basketball
- Keaton Wagler was a complete non-story this past season, everyone knew he was awesome last summer
- USC has a better roster than Illinois despite being ranked 31st on Torvik
- Justin Harmon > Lucas Morillo
- Really need to improve upon last year's offense
- John Blackwell is far better than any of our players could ever hope to be
- Mirkovic being mocked in the lottery and having 4th best odds to win NPOY is silly because he is slow and can't jump and already hit his ceiling as a player
- Morez Johnson is an impeccable young man who was drafted exactly where everyone thought he would be
- Brady Pettigrew became a worse player overnight as chatter of re-class surfaced
- Its impossible for any of our players to improve
It's not even close lol. Hitting on Keaton literally changed the trajectory of that team and maybe the program.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Given the Illinois offense is based on hunting favorable matchups, having three high usage potential players with different skill sets is going to be a nightmare for opposing teams. I don’t worry in the least about usage, because it will largely depend on who has the best matchup.
Sure, there may be a “main guy” who gets the usage late in a close game, but for 34-36 minutes I think usage will vary game to game as matchups vary.
Sure, there may be a “main guy” who gets the usage late in a close game, but for 34-36 minutes I think usage will vary game to game as matchups vary.
You have to look at 6"9 power forwards shooting that percentage on over 4 attempts per game.
That percentage, paired with that size, and that volume, is extremely impressive. That's not something to improve. It's something to maintain.
Maintain is where my focus would be, especially considering he wasn't thought to be a great shooter coming into the year.
8 could be improvable. Still very good, but as we play with more pace and he plays more minutes, could definitely see that going up.
Everyone shoots from the same line regardless of how tall they are.
The guy who led the NCAA in 3 point percentage last year is 6 foot 8 inches tall and averaged 7.5 attempts per game.
I'm not saying I think he will improve on 37%, just that it isn't some crazy abnormal thing if he does... literally hundreds of guys shoot that percentage.
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6"9 or taller players are generally much worse shooters than guards.
Don't let Illinois fool you. They are the exception:
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