RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
He’s obviously not jumping or doing anything strenuous, but he IS putting pressure on that foot, so I choose to view this as a positive.
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Yeah that’s a good counterpoint (and apologies if I missed the original point from you or Fly! about scoring efficiency)
I’m an optimist and I try to find ways in the numbers to try and prove that we can win a championship haha
Well, Wagler also had to be the No. 1 scorer on that offense. Domask didn't need to be, as he had Shannon.
Both as a scorer AND facilitator, Wagler clears here.
The condition you mentioned was "felt good with him having the ball."
For that exercise, yes, this would be my ranking:
1. Wagler
2. Ayo
3. Domask
The three boxes I'd look for in terms of "comfort having the ball" (by increasing priority):
1. Facilitator
2. Scorer
3. Quality of your offense
I'd put Keaton ever-so-slightly above Ayo because:
1. Ayo had a much higher assist rate. But Keaton had a much lower turnover rate (while maintaining a good assist rate).
2. Both were the same level of scorer. Ayo: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. Keaton: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. (Ayo's team just played faster)
3. This would be where Keaton clears. 2021 O Rating: 118.0. 2026 O Rating: 131.1. Also, the 2021 team was 125th in turnover rate, while the 2026 team was 8th.
Ayo did have a clutch gene unlike any other Illinois player I've seen. So if this was only the last 5 minutes of a game, it would be Ayo and it's not close. There were so many games we "could've" or "should've" lost that we didn't, just because of him. (that Nebraska game almost gave me a heart attack)
Ok so we all feel good with Domask having the ball here.
Behind only Wagler and ayo is amazing. Loved him
Keaton having a low turnover rate, is why I think he didn't end up with the same usage rate as some other STARS.
If he turned the ball over more, he probably would've had a higher usage.
During the draft process alot of people were saying he didn't have the same usage as some of the other 1st round guards.
It's what expected with any sort of fracture/non structural related injury. Doctors don't want you off your feet. Getting up and getting around promotes bone healing. Like you said, he's not going to be running the break in practices for the next month, but the injury was far, far, far less than some had feared. I suspect he'll go back to the doc in a few weeks, they'll take an x-,ray and will go from there. Just have to let mother nature and Fletch do their thing.
Who you foul is a tactic that impacts this, I think.
Gonna be hard to win even 1 of the TTU / DUKE / UCONN games.
While I agree with you.... I think when we scheduled these teams, this was always going to be true.
Darius Acuff had just a 11.6 TOV rate but still got to 29.5 usage. Terrance Shannon just had a 12.1 TOV rate but still got to 27.9 usage.
But usage by definition is: the quantity of possessions ending in a player's shot attempt, free throws, or turnover. So perhaps you might be right.
.....
Wagler last year: 25.7 usage | 23.2 assist rate | 12.5 TOV rate.
It's just rare for a player to be able to: 1) handle lots of usage 2) produce high assist rates .... WITHOUT turning the ball over.
Here's a graph of every HM player last year that produced at least a 20% assist rate AND had at least a 25% usage. Their turnover rates compared on the y axis:
Wagler is the orange dot on the 12.5 cut line^^
Here's the same graph for 2025: every HM player that produced at least a 20% assist rate AND had at least a 25% usage. Their turnover rates compared on the y axis:
Kasparas is the orange dot at the bottom of the data^^
If I could point to a single improvement from our PG position from 2025 to 2026, that's EXACTLY what it would be: handling the responsibility of being our leading scorer, highest usage player, highest assist-generating player .... WHILE not turning the ball over.
.....
It's rare for your primary ball handler to have Keaton's TOV rate, period. Let's use Illinois as the example:
2026: Wagler, 12.5 TOV
2025: Kasparas, 25.4 TOV (which is honestly bad, but it did happen).
2024: Domask, 16.4 TOV
2023: really did not have one, but I'll say Shannon since he had the best assist rate. 17.2 TOV
2022: Trent Frazier or Curbelo? Trent, 16.7 TOV. Curbelo, 26.7 TOV.
2021: Ayo, 18.0 TOV
Orangetool
Give me back my Afta, heh heh
My guy is saying Williams will play ahead of Morillo.
Lotta talent on this squad.
Lotta.
Lotta talent on this squad.
Lotta.
Makes sense why they want to play faster. Love the idea of Williams, Coleman, and Andrej in the fast break
i dont think Curbelo would play on our current roster. he'd just be in thr Petrovic position.
KJ played because he had the positional size. And was a great shooter before the hand injury.
UConn and Duke were gonna be hard no matter what but you are severely overrating TT especially if no Toppin. Not sure I would describe that game as hard. They didn't exactly set the world on fire with him and Anderson last year and those two won't be playing in this game.
Man back-to-back home runs on underrated recruits
And I’m thinking Morillo himself as a homerun as well. It’s feeling closer to us just having insane amounts of talent to choose from all game this year.
We're the #3 team in the country in many "too early rankings." I think it's pretty daunting to go into Cameron against #2 Duke so objectively that's likely a loss. "Neutral site" game against a lower ranked (albeit barely lower ranked) Uconn at UC (which will not be neutral) should objectively be a win. TT is better than the initial rankings due to the players coming back more recently, but I think at best they are top 15-20. The game is in Lubbock so that will be tough, but I still think it's kind of a toss-up. I think it's totally doable to come out with a 2-1 record from those 3 games.
TTU / DUKE / UCONN / MIZZOU
I’d be ecstatic with going 2-2. Anything more is gravy.
…..
North Carolina’s on Jan. 30th so it doesn’t quite fall into this slate, as it’s in the heart of BIG play.
Yeah I thought similar... here is what I came up with:
Duke 30% chance to win (based on them being 6 or 7 point favorites at home)
UConn & TT games 50% chance to win (merely because I think its a toss up at this point who will be favored and 50% is nice, round #)
That makes the probability that we go 0-3 at around 17% (or only 1 in 6 chance)
1-2: 40%
2-1: 35%
3-0: 8%
(note: percentages are 'rough' as I didn't actually write the math down on paper)
LW is definitely taller than 6-4
Really detailed rundown adds to the chart nicely. I think my main hesitation is the range of outcomes and varying sample sizes of Q1A games each season -- if we aggregate all 9 seasons, we get roughly only a half a point difference which nearly washes the whole thing out.
Really depends on if Toppin is back, which I doubt he will be.
Is UC going to be any different than Indy in terms of home court?