OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Based on that trend, we would be ranked 0 (kind of like how Steve Jobs was Employee 0 at Apple after Wozniak got Employee 1 and Jobs got ticked off).
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Same! But I am taller than the typical one.
The biggest shift in philosophy — perhaps after Can Crocker’s arrival — is allowing teams to shoot more threes.
Graph of our 3pt attempt rate allowed on defense, every season since 2008:
2024 —> fewest threes allowed of any season. (80th best defense per Kenpom)
2025 —> few more threes allowed. (40th best defense per Kenpom)
2026 —> WAY more threes allowed. (20th best defense per Kenpom)
….
Allowing teams to shoot more threes, has coincided with less shots allowed at the rim.
Rim rate allowed (what % of the shot attempts you give up are at the rim):
2024 —> 113th
2025 —> 79th
2026 —> 4th
….
What’s also interesting is our 3pt% allowed (how well teams shoot threes against you):
2024 —> 196th
2025 —> 161st
2026 —> 37th
In past years — while we gave up fewer attempts, we did allow teams to shoot a higher %.
Now — yes we give up more attempts, but teams shoot a lesser %.
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Of all the years we have heard Brad talk about “positionless basketball”, I think this will be the one closest to that vision, to date. I think we will continue to hunt matchups that favor us. The primary focus of offensive initiation will hinge more on the defense than a consistent focal point of attack.
That’s the beauty of having a high degree of continuity. The guys know and trust each other. Ideally, with a group like this, you see a lot of ball movement, rather than one guy trying to penetrate the defense over and over again, every game.
Our spacing should be excellent, as should the chemistry. The bigs can shoot, pass, and post. The wings can penetrate, pass, and hit open shots. There are a bunch of ways this team will stress a defense.
I’m not worried about who is breaking a press. We won’t get pressed much. We have too many experienced guys, who can see over most double teams. Pressing will likely end up in easy baskets.
Rebounding should continue to be a strength. It led to a lot of our best offense last year.
For most teams, maybe it matters if they don’t have a “traditional PG”. Most teams don’t have multiple big guys who can be a threat legitimate pass/shoot 20+ feet from the basket.
Illinois does. When you have numerous guys who defy convention, conventional wisdom is less applicable.
Yes, but I also think it's insane to say Thornton&Mobley or Sandfort&Hoiberg was a better backcourt than Keaton&Kylan.
If we don't like Torvik, here it is using EvanMiya BPR:
Illinois —
Wagler: 9.84
Boswell: 7.00
Total: 16.84
Purdue —
Smith: 11.10
Loyer: 8.21
Total: 19.31
Nebraska —
Sandfort: 8.80
Hoiberg: 7.82
Total: 16.62
Ohio St —
Thornton: 10.19
Mobley Jr: 5.73
Total: 15.92
Wisconsin —
Boyd: 8.01
Blackwell: 7.17
Total: 15.18
Once more, Boyd & Blackwell are behind everyone else.
For Nebraska though I'd probably argue Sandfort played the 3 and the guards were Lawrence/Hoiberg.
Thornton was utterly outstanding and really props up that backcourt
Illinois —
Wagler: 9.84
Boswell: 7.00
Total: 16.84
Purdue —
Smith: 11.10
Loyer: 8.21
Total: 19.31
Nebraska —
Sandfort: 8.80
Hoiberg: 7.82
Total: 16.62
Ohio St —
Thornton: 10.19
Mobley Jr: 5.73
Total: 15.92
Wisconsin —
Boyd: 8.01
Blackwell: 7.17
Total: 15.18
Once more, Boyd & Blackwell are behind everyone else.
For Nebraska though I'd probably argue Sandfort played the 3 and the guards were Lawrence/Hoiberg.
Thornton was utterly outstanding and really props up that backcourt
If we're still on Blackwell and Duke, they released a lengthy practice tape. What stood out - the kid they picked up from Barcelona is unique, big, great touch, keeps ball high and looks very skilled. He could be special.
They're going to have a hard time keeping Rippey off the floor. He has an extra gear, great floor energy.
I won't be surprised if by end of year, Cam Williams and Caleb Foster as seeing a lot of pine. They're best five look like Ngongba, Sarr, JBB, Howard and Rippey.
He might not be THE DUDE on their team at the very start of the season but I don't think there's any way they'll be able to keep Boumtje-Boumtje off the court by year's end even as a 17 year old at an elite program. As loaded as they are, I'll be stunned if he's not their #1 by the end of it. They've got him for 2 seasons which is gonna be scary for the college basketball world.
I wouldn't be shocked if he were NPOY this season. Guy is a special special talent. Gonna enjoy watching him. Flagg-Boozer-Boumtje-Boumtje back-2-back-2-back years is wild.
I wouldn't be shocked if he were NPOY this season. Guy is a special special talent. Gonna enjoy watching him. Flagg-Boozer-Boumtje-Boumtje back-2-back-2-back years is wild.
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Yeah, I'm going to be really curious how he looks. He's not Flagg in terms of athleticism or Boozer in terms of strength, but he's very tall, very long and extremely killed (and a lefty). I don't expect him to be a very good defensive players at the 4 and teams that go 4 out might be able to run him ragged. I also don't sense he's the kind of kid that you'll be able to hand the ball off to anywhere and expect him to create offense.
He seems to like the three points shot a bit too much. Scheyer may end up playing him and Ngongba in a high/low attack.
Take a look at any player that's been with Scheyer for more than a year and ask yourself if they've gotten better. I haven't seen it. Roach, Proctor, Evans, Foster, Mitchell.
I don't want to be on the Duke defense team, but it's pretty false to say Evans didn't improve:
Went from bench player on a 1seed to second best player on a 1seed (and on the edge of becoming a first round pick).
The path to going from a good rim protection team to a great one, is having Z on the court more. Really that simple IMO.
No idea if that will or will not happen.
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Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
I assume because we leave people more open they are enticed to shoot further, less successful shots.
There's 5 stats that determine how good a team's rim protection is (at least out of the data I have available):
• 2pt percentage allowed (Illinois was 38th)
• BLK% (Illinois was 25th)
• mid-range attempt rate forced (Illinois was 13th)
• rim attempt rate surrendered (Illinois was 4th)
• rim conversation % surrendered (Illinois was 166th)
So I do think we're good or even very good. The one area to improve would be the rim% allowed, but I wonder how much of that comes with our philosophy of not fouling.
FWLIW, Brad said in one of the interviews we should be "one of the best shot blocking teams in College Basketball History." (obviously take it with a little grain of salt)
....
The big note on the rim% allowed:
• Opponents shot 55.2% at the rim when Z was on the court, versus 60.2% at the rim when he was off the court. (-5% is actually a very significant difference)
• Illinois for the season, gave up 59.0% at the rim. (which was 166th)
So yes, having Z out there improves our rim protection drastically. What's scary is he could possibly take another jump with the added strength.
We're just not surrendering the "easy" shots at the rim. The ones that look like 100% shots.
When teams just don't have those shots available, there's an innate urge to want to chuck.
I think we've seen this blueprint a lot with Nebraska:
• They were 2nd in the country in rim attempt rate allowed (Illinois was 4th)
• They were 361st in 3pt attempt rate allowed (Illinois was 310th)
Is it just leaving teams open? Maybe, maybe not. But when teams KNOW they can't get to the rim, it just makes them feel like they need to let it fly.
What if we petition the NCAA to allow us to hockey sub the twins for offense/defense.
Or do we think they look enough alike that we could put them in the same jersey and just hockey sub in confusion? Kind of like when Jose Conseco allegedly hit for his brother.
In 2026, a strength of schedule defense of 103.0 was good for 16th in the country.
In 2025, a strength of schedule defense of 103.0 was 70th in the country.
(Kenpom)
In 2025, a strength of schedule defense of 103.0 was 70th in the country.
(Kenpom)
104 vs 72 blocks is significant. When only on court for 17 mins it doesn’t have the same effect.
A misconception. He was the 7-13 ranked 5* coming out of HS in a loaded class and left as a 2nd round pick after his sophomore year. I'm sure Isaiah Evans wasn't coming to Duke thinking he was a second round pick as as sophomore.
I have yet to see Scheyer turn anything but gold into gold, or turn gold into less than gold. Show me where he gets a 30-100 type kid and actually makes him something.
A great example of his recruiting graces - he has a kid named Sebastian Wilkins at the 4 who was a 45th kid last year, came back only to be recruited over by Williams and JBB.
He'll probably push Foster and Boozer out this year if he gets Beckham Black.
I can't remember when i said this midseason, but that part is no small feat and is the baseline for continuing to bring in top recruits. Lots and lots of coaches either misevaluate the wrong "gold" or simply fail with awesome players. Even great coaches have had failures with awesome recruits.
If the kid from Barcelona is actually all that, I think he'll succeed at Duke and Scheyer has proven that. Your point on anyone ranked outside really the top 20 not developing at Duke stands. I'm not sure he or Duke cares though and we'll see how that works long term.
Last season, we had the best ball movement under Brad and the best ball movement since 05. The tip pass from Tomi to Davis was a thing of art.
Get this man on some of that Fletch magic. He’s gonna be special. Smooth release. Some handy bounce. Just feels like a fluid, skilled athlete.