Yeah that's true. Going to meander a little bit here.
But to your point that's why I can't get on board with the "Where would we have been without Keaton?" or "We would've been screwed without Keaton." type of rhetoric. We wouldn't have been as good had Keaton not been an All American. But we would've just played through other players instead and probably still have been good. That's the beauty of our system. It's not like we're screwed if one player doesn't pan out. Maybe Kylan, Tomi, Mirk, or Andrej would've had even better years had Keaton not been Keaton.
Other than that, I won't fault Torvik too much. Either we'll get more production out of Coleman's minutes than he is currently projecting and we'll rise in the rankings or... we won't and maybe we'll "just" be the 13th ranked team. He seems like he's usually in the ballpark though.
But regardless of what his algorithm says, our returning minute percentage is 8th among all high major teams. And it's not like we're returning minutes from a team that didn't make the tournament (Minnesota, Colorado St., Utah St. - 3 teams in front of us for returning minutes). We're returning a bunch of minutes from a final four team. So, of high major teams who made the tournament last year, we're fifth in returning minutes (Florida, MSU, Michigan, Duke).
I'd put money on us finishing top 10 in the efficiency metrics.