Yeah this is my view too. Definitely a tough look at the schedule right now. Based on ESPN's FPI Matchup Predictor (not the best metric but it's something)
Likely W's (>75% chance to win):
Wyoming, Chattanooga
Likely L's (<25% chance to win):
@Wisconsin, @Nebraska, Michigan State, @Michigan
Gettable "upset" (30-40% chance to win)
@Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue
Toss Ups:
Virginia, @Northwestern
Need the gimmes, convert both toss-ups, and steal 2 others to get to 6.
I can definitely see a path to 6, but 4 is probably a fair projection from a neutral to think we get Wyoming, Chat, one toss up and one upset or "upset" on the year.