lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Nebraska, Northwestern.
Then win one of MSU, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin.
I like our chances to get to 6.
Illini Football 2022
- Status
Then win one of MSU, Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin.
I like our chances to get to 6.
I feel like Purdue is way too high. Why am I wrong?
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I don't think you are.
But before those games against “horrible opponents,” I remember them being called pretty good and Illinois being in for a tussle. I seem to remember Virginia unanimously forecast the winner.
Now, since Illinois made short work of three of them (3-0, 2-1, and 3-0, not counting Illinois), in’s overall outplaying Indiana, suddenly those teams are “very bad competition.”
That’s the old if-Illinois-beats-them-they-can’t-be-hood refrain we hear over and over after every game we win. And I’m not buying it.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
When was that? We were the Vegas favorites for that game.
The competition level is going to be significantly higher from now until Northwestern, that's just the reality.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Another ratings note ... our Friday night rating vs. Indiana on the ratings graveyard that is FS1 (965k) is starting to look a bit more impressive. Indiana only drew 482k for a 3:30 pm EST Saturday game at Cincinnati, so I am inclined to believe a very decent chunk of that was our fans (especially when you consider that we drew 512k for our game against Wyoming...). Here is a comparison of our Friday night IU game rating with some Saturday BTN/FS1 ratings for comparison (times are CST):
Georgia Southern at Nebraska: 1.24 million (6:30 pm on FS1) ... God, their fans are crazy.
Minnesota at Michigan State: 1.11 million (2:30 pm on BTN) ... great rating.
Illinois at Indiana: 965k (Friday at 7:00 pm on FS1)
North Dakota at Nebraska: 889k (2:30 pm on BTN) ... see above!
Iowa at Rutgers: 739k (6:30 pm on FS1)
Central Michigan at Penn State: 628k (11:00 am on BTN)
Wyoming at Illinois: 512k (3:00 pm on BTN)
Illinois State at Wisconsin: 498k (6:00 pm on BTN)
New Mexico State at Wisconsin: 426k (2:30 pm on BTN)
Nevada at Iowa: 348k (6:00 pm on BTN)
SMU at Maryland: 257k (6:30 pm on FS1)
Buffalo at Maryland: 181k (11:00 am on BTN)
Duke at Northwestern: 160k (11:00 am on FS1)
So, even though it was on a Friday, Illinois/Indiana is the third highest rated game on the BTN/FS1 this year, not that far behind Minnesota at Michigan State. And considering Indiana's pretty pathetic rating for a Saturday afternoon game on a channel that reaches WAY more viewers, I would say that is encouraging. I think a good Illini team that gets to play in these FOX, ABC, ESPN, etc. slots would draw a lot better than many here might suspect.
Georgia Southern at Nebraska: 1.24 million (6:30 pm on FS1) ... God, their fans are crazy.
Minnesota at Michigan State: 1.11 million (2:30 pm on BTN) ... great rating.
Illinois at Indiana: 965k (Friday at 7:00 pm on FS1)
North Dakota at Nebraska: 889k (2:30 pm on BTN) ... see above!
Iowa at Rutgers: 739k (6:30 pm on FS1)
Central Michigan at Penn State: 628k (11:00 am on BTN)
Wyoming at Illinois: 512k (3:00 pm on BTN)
Illinois State at Wisconsin: 498k (6:00 pm on BTN)
New Mexico State at Wisconsin: 426k (2:30 pm on BTN)
Nevada at Iowa: 348k (6:00 pm on BTN)
SMU at Maryland: 257k (6:30 pm on FS1)
Buffalo at Maryland: 181k (11:00 am on BTN)
Duke at Northwestern: 160k (11:00 am on FS1)
So, even though it was on a Friday, Illinois/Indiana is the third highest rated game on the BTN/FS1 this year, not that far behind Minnesota at Michigan State. And considering Indiana's pretty pathetic rating for a Saturday afternoon game on a channel that reaches WAY more viewers, I would say that is encouraging. I think a good Illini team that gets to play in these FOX, ABC, ESPN, etc. slots would draw a lot better than many here might suspect.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think this is technically true, but it might not be true across the board. UVA had a Syracuse team that beat Purdue on the ropes, for example, and Nebraska looks to be a LOT worse than (foolish!) people projected them to be. Additionally, while a clear step up from UVA, I have not seen anything from Iowa or Wisconsin to suggest that we have a worse chance of beating them than I thought we would at the beginning of the season - in other words, I would not be surprised with a split of those two at all. This is, of course, counteracted by Minnesota looking a lot better than many expected.
The main theme has been repeated a lot here already, though - we have an immense opportunity to make a statement in the next two games, and failing to win at least one likely has us scrambling for six wins. That would still be an improvement and keep the momentum going, I suppose, but I think we are all desperately hoping that this is finally the moment we turn the corner. As you said, it gets tougher from here ... I think we will find out a LOT about this team very soon!
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Eh, those Saturday slots are facing a ton more competition than a Friday game, I don't think it's correct to say that that's a game time with a handicap associated. The ratings are what they are. Speaking of which:
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
While competition is a factor, I also think this kind of proves that the day of the week matters. I know Wyoming was "Week Zero," but I am skeptical hordes of people who are not Illini fans were tuning in. Even if they were our drop from over 500k on a Saturday to 176k on a Thursday - both times playing teams with small fan bases - indicates that, all else equal, Saturday games get better ratings. I will predict that our Saturday game vs. Wisconsin on BTN gets a very good rating for that network.
This is also shows what trash ESPNU is. Our Thursday night game vs. Chattanooga on BTN drew 1,000 fewer viewers than South Carolina playing on a Saturday in primetime on ESPNU.
This is also shows what trash ESPNU is. Our Thursday night game vs. Chattanooga on BTN drew 1,000 fewer viewers than South Carolina playing on a Saturday in primetime on ESPNU.
Writers.
Not Vegas. And we easily covered the spread. But all we heard coming up to each of the games is how dangerous the other teams were. I’m not arguing that. What I’m saying is that before the games, the other teams are really great. But when we win, suddenly they’re “really bad competition.”
pruman91
- Paducah, Ky
I really hope that next week we get a chance to talk about how Wisconsin wasn’t that good this year that that we haven’t played a good team yet.Writers.
But all we heard coming up to each of the games is how dangerous the other teams were. I’m not arguing that. What I’m saying is that before the games, the other teams are really great. But when we win, suddenly they’re “really bad competition.”
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
This but unironically.
To paraphrase Ayo, "Why not us?"
If you need a chip on your shoulder find another argument. People have been posting the positive records of the teams we beat for the last month.Writers.
But all we heard coming up to each of the games is how dangerous the other teams were. I’m not arguing that. What I’m saying is that before the games, the other teams are really great. But when we win, suddenly they’re “really bad competition.”
We lost to a mediocre Indiana team and have beaten three mediocre teams. No one's disrespecting us. We really haven't done much yet.
I'm real optimistic though.
Then you remember incorrectly because Illinois was a slight favorite in that one. They scraped by a 2 point win over an FCS team at home the following week. I'm optimistic about the start of the season, of course, but I don't think our opponents are anything to write home about. SP+ has Virginia at 81, Indiana at 83, Wyoming at 107 and Chattanooga is, of course, FCS.
Saturday will be a big test of where Illinois's ceiling is on the season, no doubt.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
PFF position rankings by grades (I didn't include everybody because it's behind a paywall, just a sprinkle):
Tommy DeVito - 47th ranked QB (out of 197th) - passing grade only
*His ranking jumps to 31st if you only include QBs who have taken <20% of meaningful snaps this year (threshold is a little more complicated than that, but you get the intent)
Chase Brown - 53rd ranked RB (out of 625) - running grade only
*PFF hasn't been a fan of CB, it happens.
**Ranking is 47th when using the 20% threshold.
***Reggie Love is 35th(!) under the 20% threshold. I think he's underrated by us.
Tip Reiman - 30th TE in pass blocking, 129th in run blocking,
*28th in pass blocking, 74th in run blocking when using the 20% threshold
**Ford is running 20-30 spots behind Reiman in each of these categories
Interior Offensive Line
*Only used the 20% threshold on these because there are so many lineman with 5-15 snaps this year.
Isaiah Adams - 91st across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (63rd for guards - out of 329)
Alex Pihlstrom - 190th across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (64th for centers - out of 149)
Zy Crisler - 376th across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (258th for guards - out of 329)
Jordyn Slaughter - 277th across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (183rd for guards - out of 329)
*Adams is the 43rd ranked guard if you bump up the snap threshold to 50%
Tommy DeVito - 47th ranked QB (out of 197th) - passing grade only
*His ranking jumps to 31st if you only include QBs who have taken <20% of meaningful snaps this year (threshold is a little more complicated than that, but you get the intent)
Chase Brown - 53rd ranked RB (out of 625) - running grade only
*PFF hasn't been a fan of CB, it happens.
**Ranking is 47th when using the 20% threshold.
***Reggie Love is 35th(!) under the 20% threshold. I think he's underrated by us.
Tip Reiman - 30th TE in pass blocking, 129th in run blocking,
*28th in pass blocking, 74th in run blocking when using the 20% threshold
**Ford is running 20-30 spots behind Reiman in each of these categories
Interior Offensive Line
*Only used the 20% threshold on these because there are so many lineman with 5-15 snaps this year.
Isaiah Adams - 91st across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (63rd for guards - out of 329)
Alex Pihlstrom - 190th across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (64th for centers - out of 149)
Zy Crisler - 376th across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (258th for guards - out of 329)
Jordyn Slaughter - 277th across interior linemen in overall blocking grade (183rd for guards - out of 329)
*Adams is the 43rd ranked guard if you bump up the snap threshold to 50%
Love appears to be getting comfortable. He used to run fast and light. Lately I've been seeing some power behind him and he's been falling forward more oft than not. Not as strong as Chase and Josh, but certainly better than what he showed before. He also had a couple of key blocks on the Pat Bryant touchdown that wasn't last week.
Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
Pretty cool to see that uniform presented like that.
OTOH, the team logos in the graphics are way too subtle, and they used the Syracuse logo for Newton. I guess the intern got confused by the orange pants.
What an eye! Nice catch @Ransom Stoddard and ouch at that mix-up by PFF.Pretty cool to see that uniform presented like that.
OTOH, the team logos in the graphics are way too subtle, and they used the Syracuse logo for Newton. I guess the intern got confused by the orange pants.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Is it just me or do we have more players at the top of PFF stats than normal?
blackdog
- Champaign
Well in the recent past normal has been never so this is a huge improvement. But really its been amazing seeing the development of these guys and how high a level this staff is getting them to play at.
- Status