Illini Football 2022

DeonThomas · Aug 20, 2022

Best case scenario this season:
- Bielema proves he is indeed a developer of OL-first programs; and our top 7 linemen stay healthy all year
- Running game ranks #3 in the BigTen in the regular season
- QB's average 215 yards per game passing; hitting on 62% of their passes
- Walters proves he's a defensive scheme genius; and improves on our 2021 defensive stats
- Defense ranks #6 overall in the BigTen during the regular season
- 8-4 overall regular season record (incl. a 4-0 start); 5-4 conference record; and an invitation to the Music City Bowl
- Bielema finishes 3rd in COY voting

mhuml32 · Aug 20, 2022

DeonThomas said:
Best case scenario this season:
- Bielema proves he is indeed a developer of OL-first programs; and our top 7 linemen stay healthy all year
- Running game ranks #3 in the BigTen in the regular season
- QB's average 215 yards per game passing; hitting on 62% of their passes
- Walters proves he's a defensive scheme genius; and improves on our 2021 defensive stats
- Defense ranks #6 overall in the BigTen during the regular season
- 8-4 overall regular season record (incl. a 4-0 start); 5-4 conference record; and an invitation to the Music City Bowl
- Bielema finishes 3rd in COY voting

This tracks for "what does it look like if everything goes right?". If all of this happens....the good is recruiting likely takes a sizable step forward (~30's for ranked recruiting classes and further success in-state). The bad is Walters will be a head coach somewhere.

DeonThomas · Aug 21, 2022

mhuml32 said:
This tracks for "what does it look like if everything goes right?". If all of this happens....the good is recruiting likely takes a sizable step forward (~30's for ranked recruiting classes and further success in-state). The bad is Walters will be a head coach somewhere.

You are 100% correct.

And BB is able to attract an even better Walters replacement from the SEC. And we have a 4-star transfer QB on the roster to compete with Sitkowski next season. And attendance for opening day 2023 is 55,000+

illini80 · Aug 21, 2022

DeonThomas said:
You are 100% correct.

And BB is able to attract an even better Walters replacement from the SEC. And we have a 4-star transfer QB on the roster to compete with Sitkowski next season. And attendance for opening day 2023 is 55,000+

Day drinking on a Sunday morning! I like it!!

mhuml32 · Aug 21, 2022

Connelly's final preseason SP+ is posted. Illinois has creeped up a little bit since the first one (82 --> 79). Here are the SP+ rankings for each of Illinois' opponents:

Wyoming (home): 111
Indiana (road): 86
Virginia (home): 65
Chattanooga (home): NR
Wisconsin (road): 17
Iowa (home): 27
Minnesota (home): 31
Nebraska (road): 44
Michigan State (home): 15
Purdue (home): 34
Michigan (road): 6
Northwestern (road): 89

PassingBy · Aug 21, 2022

No sweat

IllinoisssssssVarsity · Aug 21, 2022

IlliniSaluki said:
This for some reason scares me in a good and bad way. Good that it would be beneficial for the B1G and bad that it would mean another probably loss each year. lol Nebraska is still a big brand regardless of their recent history and with the right coach they could easily work themselves back to being a powerhouse. Urban is one of those coaches because of who he is that could do that in my opinion.

Honestly, I want it to happen. The conference need Nebraska to be good. They were supposed to help Wisconsin/Iowa balance out being pretty consistently good with OSU, UM and PSU.

I like that there’s a hole to climb into for us because they’re down, but I don’t like the optics of traditional power leaves better football conference and comes to the big ten and falls off a cliff.

illini80 · Aug 21, 2022

mhuml32 said:
Connelly's final preseason SP+ is posted. Illinois has creeped up a little bit since the first one (82 --> 79). Here are the SP+ rankings for each of Illinois' opponents:

Wyoming (home): 111
Indiana (road): 86
Virginia (home): 65
Chattanooga (home): NR
Wisconsin (road): 17
Iowa (home): 27
Minnesota (home): 31
Nebraska (road): 44
Michigan State (home): 15
Purdue (home): 34
Michigan (road): 6
Northwestern (road): 89

4.5 over/under makes perfect sense with these rankings. We need to over perform

lstewart53x3 · Aug 21, 2022

mhuml32 said:
Connelly's final preseason SP+ is posted. Illinois has creeped up a little bit since the first one (82 --> 79). Here are the SP+ rankings for each of Illinois' opponents:

Wyoming (home): 111
Indiana (road): 86
Virginia (home): 65
Chattanooga (home): NR
Wisconsin (road): 17
Iowa (home): 27
Minnesota (home): 31
Nebraska (road): 44
Michigan State (home): 15
Purdue (home): 34
Michigan (road): 6
Northwestern (road): 89

5-7 = a successful season

Fighter of the Nightman · Aug 21, 2022

lstewart53x3 said:
5-7 = a successful season

I REALLY want that bowl to show progress, but I guess it depends on who we beat!

the national · Aug 21, 2022

Fighter of the Nightman said:
I REALLY want that bowl to show progress, but I guess it depends on who we beat!

If we finish 5-7 with a few fun upsets (Iowa/Neb) and a few close competitive games (MSU/Mich), I’ll be pretty happy. But please please please, no Maryland-like collapses.

Genesis · Aug 21, 2022

I think that having a middle of the road passing offense will force defenses to respect our passing game and that opens up the running game. Brown, Spoon, the linebackers and the law firm lead a solid defense. We're disrespected at #79 SP+ and play more like a #60. We start 4-0, and beat the pussycats the last game. We find it easier to steal one from Purdon't at home than Nebby on the road. 6-6!

Central IL Illini · Aug 21, 2022

mhuml32 said:
Connelly's final preseason SP+ is posted. Illinois has creeped up a little bit since the first one (82 --> 79). Here are the SP+ rankings for each of Illinois' opponents:

Wyoming (home): 111
Indiana (road): 86
Virginia (home): 65
Chattanooga (home): NR
Wisconsin (road): 17
Iowa (home): 27
Minnesota (home): 31
Nebraska (road): 44
Michigan State (home): 15
Purdue (home): 34
Michigan (road): 6
Northwestern (road): 89

Just based on the numbers it looks like 2 solid wins (Wyoming, Chattanooga) 7 probable losses (Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, MSU, Purdue, Michigan) and 3 toss ups (Indiana, Virginia, Northwestern)

I know we will probably steal one from the probable loss column, but it may be setting up for a little more disappointing season than some are expecting. That 7 game stretch from Wisconsin through Michigan is brutal and we will probably be underdogs in every game. I think 5-7 this season would be a success, but 4-8 is probably most likely.

TheDrinkinLincoln · Aug 21, 2022

Central IL Illini said:
Just based on the numbers it looks like 2 solid wins (Wyoming, Chattanooga) 7 probable losses (Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, MSU, Purdue, Michigan) and 3 toss ups (Indiana, Virginia, Northwestern)

I know we will probably steal one from the probable loss column, but it may be setting up for a little more disappointing season than some are expecting. That 7 game stretch from Wisconsin through Michigan is brutal and we will probably be underdogs in every game. I think 5-7 this season would be a success, but 4-8 is probably most likely.

My hope for this year is 5-7 and to not lose any of the winnable games. The way out of the cellar is beating the people you should beat. Last year I wanted 4 wins and to not have any blow out losses.

Pennsy · Aug 21, 2022

Looking at our team and looking at our schedule, do you think there is any team there that thinks they can just look past Illinois? I think they are all saying, "Oh no . . . we have to play the Illini." I wouldn't want to play us.

Tbear90 · Aug 21, 2022

mhuml32 said:
Connelly's final preseason SP+ is posted. Illinois has creeped up a little bit since the first one (82 --> 79). Here are the SP+ rankings for each of Illinois' opponents:

Wyoming (home): 111
Indiana (road): 86
Virginia (home): 65
Chattanooga (home): NR
Wisconsin (road): 17
Iowa (home): 27
Minnesota (home): 31
Nebraska (road): 44
Michigan State (home): 15
Purdue (home): 34
Michigan (road): 6
Northwestern (road): 89

If I look at this and think no injuries, great Coaching, win turnover battle, special teams, etc...

8-4 tied 2nd or 3rd place in the West! That's my dream season. I'll settle for 6-6 with no depth on team.

ChiefGritty · Aug 21, 2022

mhuml32 said:
Connelly's final preseason SP+ is posted. Illinois has creeped up a little bit since the first one (82 --> 79). Here are the SP+ rankings for each of Illinois' opponents:

Wyoming (home): 111
Indiana (road): 86
Virginia (home): 65
Chattanooga (home): NR
Wisconsin (road): 17
Iowa (home): 27
Minnesota (home): 31
Nebraska (road): 44
Michigan State (home): 15
Purdue (home): 34
Michigan (road): 6
Northwestern (road): 89

Good data to give credence to the feeling that our first three weeks represent very telling tests that will reveal a whole lot about where we are.

I am full on itching at this point, can we kick off now please?

ChiefGritty · Aug 21, 2022

DeonThomas said:
Best case scenario this season:

I don't think you can talk about the best case scenario without the notion of IW showing why every program in the country offered him as a non-QB and having a Rondale Moore-type impact where it's just kinda silly for that big of a talent to be on a lesser caliber team that doesn't even really play his sort of game.

I don't want to say I predict that, but you can see how the late position transition, an OC who wasn't a great fit, and two inaccurate QB's may end up as reasons that kind of explosion this year should have been obvious all along. He's a next level athlete. If he's a real wide receiver he'll be comfortably our best player.

There are happier and less happy versions of it, but I do think it's fairly likely this is IW's last season here.

Central IL Illini · Aug 21, 2022

TheDrinkinLincoln said:
My hope for this year is 5-7 and to not lose any of the winnable games. The way out of the cellar is beating the people you should beat. Last year I wanted 4 wins and to not have any blow out losses.

I agree with most of this. The only thing I will add is 5-7 means winning the 2 "should win" games and also picking off all 3 of the toss ups. I am guessing we will be a slight dog vs Virginia and @Indiana/@Northwestern. I think it is going to be a tall task to win all 3 of those games. My hope is win 2 out of 3 and then steal one vs Purdue/Nebraska/Minny and go 5-7.

BZuppke · Aug 22, 2022

I think we go bowling. After analyzing and ranking the top 15/20 teams very little analysis goes into the rest. Pretty much what did they do last year so probably more of the same. Then all these pundits are shocked when Purdue sucks but Illinois is better than expected. We know we aren’t top 20 but we’ll see how good we from 21 down.

RoundBalcs · Aug 22, 2022

Wow, cannot believe game week is here already!

I (an eternal optimist) hope for 6-6. If we can stay healthy, that feels doable. Our depth is not ideal, so a few major injuries could jeopardize this...but, suppose that's the nature of the beast.

redwingillini11 · Aug 22, 2022

Week 1 to me is the difference between what could be a 5-7 season and a 6-6 season. Let's have a really solid win this week to set us up for success against an underwhelming Hoosiers team.

Battle89 · Aug 22, 2022

Pennsy said:
Looking at our team and looking at our schedule, do you think there is any team there that thinks they can just look past Illinois? I think they are all saying, "Oh no . . . we have to play the Illini." I wouldn't want to play us.

Love the optimism but I think someone slipped something extra into your Kool-Aid ;-)

interested · Aug 22, 2022

If we lose this game or if this game is really close, I see this as (at best) a four win season. If we win convincingly, I am breaking out the orange Kool-Aid. Hate to put so much emphasis on one game, but I think it is warranted in this case.

illini80 · Aug 22, 2022

interested said:
If we lose this game or if this game is really close, I see this as (at best) a four win season. If we win convincingly, I am breaking out the orange Kool-Aid. Hate to put so much emphasis on one game, but I think it is warranted in this case.

I’m not too worried about the score as long as we win. Of course a blowout is more fun for the fans. A closer game might be an attention getter if the guys are feeling a little too good about themselves. I view the Indiana game as more of a measuring stick on how we are going to stack up. If it’s close or a L, it will be a nervous rest of the season. Win that one convincingly and I’m ready to order my bowl tickets!

Illini Football 2022

White and Sixth