The Big Ten West Division looks like a two-team race. Illinois (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and Purdue (5-2, 3-1) are tied atop the division with five games remaining.
- The backdrop: The three teams voted as the top-three teams in the division during a preseason media poll are all under-.500 in the Big Ten: Wisconsin (3-4, 1-3), Iowa (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) and Minnesota (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten).
- The new odds: ESPN’s FPI gives Purdue a 48.0% chance of winning the West and representing the division in the Big Ten Championship. Illinois has a 43.7% chance of winning the division, according to ESPN’s FPI. The other Big Ten West teams have a minuscule chance of winning the division, per ESPN’s FPI: Minnesota (5.4%), Wisconsin (1.4%), Iowa (1.2%) and Nebraska (0.2%).
- SOS: Purdue has the No. 48 strength of schedule remaining, while Illinois — which has Michigan remaining on the schedule — has the No. 28 strength of schedule remaining.
- Bottom line: ESPN’s FPI only gives Illinois and Purdue about a 5% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship because one of top-5 teams ---- Ohio State and Michigan ---- is expected to win the Big Ten East, which has won all eight Big Ten titles since the East-West division split.
I wanted to figure out the impact of the next 2 Purdue games on who wins the West
Assuming we were to lose to Michigan and went 3-0 against Neb, Mich St and NW
If Purdue lost the next 2, Wisc and Iowa, they likely win the last 2, NW and Ind. 2-2
If we beat Purdue we are 7-2 and they are 5-4
If they win we are 6-3 and they are 6-3 and they hold the tiebreaker
Now if Purdue does lose to Wisc and/or Iowa it does give us some breathing room. We could also lose the same number of games and as long as we beat Purdue we win the West. (Provided Minnesota is not in the mix)
If Purdue wins all 4 games. 4-0
If we win we are 7-2 and Purdue is 7-2 and we hold the tiebreaker
If they win we are 6-3 and they are 8-1
Conclusion: The Purdue game most likely decides who wins the West
Interesting that going into that Purdue game we could both be 5-1 with a lot of hype for the matchup and talking about the winner going to Indy. But if we are 5-1 and Purdue is 3-3 people may think the game isn’t as big but with the way the remaining games probably play out it will.