Illini Football 2024

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#202      
lstewart53x3
Illini2010-11 said:
You won't see an official line until after both teams finish their game this week. I think you are about right. ESPN has Illini projected to win 56% of time. That would translate to about -3.5. I think the likely open will be around -4.5 for Illinois, barring some unexpected outcomes this weekend.
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Remaining game odds according to KFord:

@Oregon: 7%
Minnesota: 49%
MSU: 57%
@Rutgers: 51%
Nothwestern: 67%

Minnesota might be our second most challenging remaining game.
 
#203      
Illini2010-11
lstewart53x3 said:
Remaining game odds according to KFord:

@Oregon: 7%
Minnesota: 49%
MSU: 57%
@Rutgers: 51%
Nothwestern: 67%

Minnesota might be our second most challenging remaining game.
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Very well may be the case. Minnesota (like many teams in the B1G) are really hard to tell how good they are. They got blown out at home by Iowa but then also beat USC (ranked #11 at time but loses shine every week). However, without a late TD @UCLA, they good very well be 3-4 right now. Just a very strange season.
 
#206      
Ramrod2010
Illini2010-11 said:
Very well may be the case. Minnesota (like many teams in the B1G) are really hard to tell how good they are. They got blown out at home by Iowa but then also beat USC (ranked #11 at time but loses shine every week). However, without a late TD @UCLA, they good very well be 3-4 right now. Just a very strange season.
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I'm shocked at the percentage in the post you quoted.

I thought I had seen enough during the entirety of their game against USC to effectively dismiss both teams.
 
#207      
redwingillini11
lstewart53x3 said:
Remaining game odds according to KFord:

@Oregon: 7%
Minnesota: 49%
MSU: 57%
@Rutgers: 51%
Nothwestern: 67%

Minnesota might be our second most challenging remaining game.
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Pretty surprised Minnesota and Rutgers are so low. Pretty insulting in fact. Minnesota we should win, MSU is a bit of a trap game, and Rutgers will be tough but I think we are the better team.
 
#208      
stevej64
Illini2010-11 said:
Very well may be the case. Minnesota (like many teams in the B1G) are really hard to tell how good they are. They got blown out at home by Iowa but then also beat USC (ranked #11 at time but loses shine every week). However, without a late TD @UCLA, they good very well be 3-4 right now. Just a very strange season.
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Doesn’t seem like our analytics rate very well.
Watching several podcasts this week, it seems our bend but don’t break defense doesnt stand out until you look into the turnover margin .
 
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#209      
lstewart53x3
redwingillini11 said:
Pretty surprised Minnesota and Rutgers are so low. Pretty insulting in fact. Minnesota we should win, MSU is a bit of a trap game, and Rutgers will be tough but I think we are the better team.
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Because KFord’s metrics are predictive and because we struggle to beat opponents in the most future-predicting way (out-yards’ing opponents, as Robert calls it), we’re still fairly underrated rated in KFord and other advanced stat platforms compared to our record.

I’ll also add that the Purdue game alone dropped us ~15 spots, which does seem to be an outlier performance. Remove that and we’re likely comfortable favorites in all of our remaining games outside of Oregon.
 
#210      
ChiefGritty
We're more than halfway into the season and Minnesota is still a bit of a mystery really.

You do worry about a classic "letting Oregon beat us twice" scenario here, in what might prove to be an emotionally draining, physically bullying game, plus the unusual travel burden.
 
#211      
ChiefKingfisher
Interesting thought, which team is better between this team and the 2022 Illini? I think so far I’d give the slight edge to 2022, Chase Brown was near unstoppable at times and our defense was very good. We seemed to dominate teams a lot more that year, and nearly beating Michigan in Ann Arbor was very impressive. But I think this will end up being the better season based on the way our schedule is set up, and our ability to win close games (which was our weakness in 2022).
 
#213      
Fighter of the Nightman
ChiefKingfisher said:
Interesting thought, which team is better between this team and the 2022 Illini? I think so far I’d give the slight edge to 2022, Chase Brown was near unstoppable at times and our defense was very good. We seemed to dominate teams a lot more that year, and nearly beating Michigan in Ann Arbor was very impressive. But I think this will end up being the better season based on the way our schedule is set up, and our ability to win close games (which was our weakness in 2022).
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Honestly, I’d say it’s too close to call. While you raise good points, this team seems more “dynamic” on offense with the passing game. 2022 might have passed the eye test better through 7-8 games, but can we honestly say they played a harder schedule up to this point in the year (i.e., before the MSU home game)? I say no.
 
#214      
Mr. Tibbs
ChiefKingfisher said:
Interesting thought, which team is better between this team and the 2022 Illini? I think so far I’d give the slight edge to 2022, Chase Brown was near unstoppable at times and our defense was very good. We seemed to dominate teams a lot more that year, and nearly beating Michigan in Ann Arbor was very impressive. But I think this will end up being the better season based on the way our schedule is set up, and our ability to win close games (which was our weakness in 2022).
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2022 we underachieved

2024 so far we are overachieving
 
#215      
Toews
ChiefKingfisher said:
Interesting thought, which team is better between this team and the 2022 Illini? I think so far I’d give the slight edge to 2022, Chase Brown was near unstoppable at times and our defense was very good. We seemed to dominate teams a lot more that year, and nearly beating Michigan in Ann Arbor was very impressive. But I think this will end up being the better season based on the way our schedule is set up, and our ability to win close games (which was our weakness in 2022).
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2022 team was pretty clear better but this team has two advantages which is Altmyer and Lunney is more experienced. While 2022 would certainly be favored over the 2024 team there’s just a lot to be said for a quarterback who elevates the team. 2022 team severely struggled in the red zone offensively and tbh really wasn’t good period offensively but that was probably the best defense of our lifetimes.
 
#216      
skyIdub
Fighter of the Nightman said:
FOTN gets his work done at lightning speed and delivers it to his superiors "on time" ... really frees up a lot of the day. :cool:
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jim-carrey-chat.gif
 
#218      
kmunt09
#219      
Illini4Christ
kmunt09 said:
The narrative that Luke Altmyer not being voted as a team captain by his teammates this preseason “mattered”, has not aged well!

Keep it going Luke! 👊🏻
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I guarantee he’ll have the most votes of any player next year for the team captain position.

He has definitely hyped up his intensity and his desire to win this year. I think he is a humble and quiet person, by nature, but I also believe he understands that his qb position must reveal leadership. He reminds me of Kirk Cousins in many ways.
 
#222      
Illiniam1984
So say both Illinois and Indiana finish the season 10-2 and both are competing for the last spot in the CFP. You have Illinois with wins against top 25 teams in Kansas, Nebraska and Michigan but Indiana has no wins against top 25 teams and they lost to Michigan. Would you put Indiana in the CFP over Illinois?
 
#223      
Dkayak
Illiniam1984 said:
So say both Illinois and Indiana finish the season 10-2 and both are competing for the last spot in the CFP. You have Illinois with wins against top 25 teams in Kansas, Nebraska and Michigan but Indiana has no wins against top 25 teams and they lost to Michigan. Would you put Indiana in the CFP over Illinois?
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Illinois has played a much tougher schedule by every conceivable measure. How could that not be the tie breaker?
 
#224      
Pikeillinifan
Illiniam1984 said:
So say both Illinois and Indiana finish the season 10-2 and both are competing for the last spot in the CFP. You have Illinois with wins against top 25 teams in Kansas, Nebraska and Michigan but Indiana has no wins against top 25 teams and they lost to Michigan. Would you put Indiana in the CFP over Illinois?
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While I'd think we'd make the CFP in that scenario, I bet our next game will play a big part.

If we look like we belong and have a competitive game, it's Illinois. If we are down 28-0 or whatever at the half and get blown out of the water, it could give the edge to Indiana, unless we play lights out the rest of the year.
 
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