Yeah, to be clear I also predict a loss to USC, Wisconsin or a team below that this year in my predictions, and I have us going 9-3. So, I certainly agree with you, and it was more of a case of it being difficult to word that, haha. What I was really trying to say is that if we lose said head-scratcher AND lose the "tough games" above that, it would likely indicate we are overhyped, as we would be in 7-5 territory.
But again, I definitely agree that a loss in that tier in and of itself isn't some huge deal ... assuming we can make it up with a win in one of our big road games. If you'll notice the following trend, I practically GUARANTEE that we will have a head-scratching (and/or otherwise disappointing) result mid-season, even if we end up winning it, lol...
2021
10/23 - Win at #7 Penn State to regain some valuable momentum.
---> 10/30 - Lose vs. a 3-4 Rutgers team to zap the momentum away, lol.
2022
10/29 - Win at Nebraska to improve to 7-1 and earn a #16 ranking.
---> 11/5 - Lose vs. a 3-4 Michigan State team on Dads Day in front of our biggest crowd in like 8 years.
2023
10/14 - Win at 5-1 Maryland to seemingly get our season back on track.
---> 10/21 - Lose vs. Wisconsin on Homecoming, blowing a 2-touchdown lead in the second half.
2024
10/19 - Win vs. #24 Michigan on a literally PERFECT, sellout afternoon on national TV.
[Skip obvious loss at #1 Oregon]
---> Lose vs. unranked Minnesota to extend our losing streak to 2 and drop out of the top 25.
The difference last year, of course, is that there were no more disappointments ... we rested up for a bye week, dominated MSU at home, had the thrilling comeback win at Rutgers, handily beat Northwestern at Wrigley and rounded out a 4-game winning streak to end the year by beating #15 South Carolina (one of the hottest teams in the nation) in the Citrus Bowl. Let's hope that momentum carries over seamlessly!!