Illinois 105, Minnesota 97 Postgame

#326      
I'm surprised Pomeroy hasn't changed that formula, since he had a long article showing that offensive efficiency had about 2/3 of the control over scoring. Maybe it's baked in somewhere with the calculation of AdjOE and AdjDE (versus raw OE and DE). But if not, a more accurate measure of strength against an average D-I team would weight the offense more heavily. Something like:

(2*AdjOE + D1avg(AdjOE)) / 3
-
( AdjDE + 2*D1avg(AdjDE)) / 3

would seem more appropriate.

Actually, let's just check out what that gives. Math is easy in Excel.

I give you, the "Adjusted Adjusted Efficiency Margin" Rankings. The first 4 columns are KenPom #s. The 3rd from right is the new formula, with rankings next to it - and the last column is the difference between the new ranking and KenPom. I didn't subtract the EM numbers because I'm not sure they really represent the same thing...

View attachment 31619
My read is he's less preficting winning but assessing WAR for teams where his goal is just "who is best relative to the middle".

Re: the methodology difference (essentially it being additive is the difference) he explains here:
 
#327      
Illini offense starting to look like the legendary offense of Paul Westhead and Loyola Marymount of the late ‘80s era.

This gives Our Beloved something to aspire to. Loyola Marymount once led College Ball Division I in scoring for three years in a row... averaging at over 110, 112, and 122 per game. The games were wild to watch. A frenzy of running and shooting and ball movement. Sort of like running the video/tape of a regular roundball game and speeding it up to twice the normal speed. Every time they took ball possession, they used to try to get a shot up in something like 7 seconds or less... or something like that. They once won a game in 1989 with a score of 181–150.

That’s a good rule of thumb! Hold your opponent under 150 and you have a good shot at winning...
Yes. A really, really fun team to watch. And Hank Gathers was a heck of a player. RIP
I much prefer our style of play today, fun to watch vs our previously good defensive teams that couldn't score, not fun to watch.
 
#328      
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#332      
Yes. A really, really fun team to watch. And Hank Gathers was a heck of a player. RIP
I much prefer our style of play today, fun to watch vs our previously good defensive teams that couldn't score, not fun to watch.
In 1990, Loyola Marymount beat Michigan 149-115. The 264 combined points are the most in an NCAA Tournament game all time.

I was in Vegas betting for the first time, and that game was the first and last time I have bet an Under....
 
#333      
I'm honestly kind of sad Minnesota didn't get to 100. Has a Big Ten team ever scored 100+ in a Big Ten game and still lost.
The 1962-63 Illini were 20-6 with 12 games of 90 or better. The beat Indiana in Huff Hall 104 to 101 and lost the return match to Indiana 100 to 103. Dave Downey set the Illinois single game scoring record in the loss with 53 points.
 
#334      
The 1962-63 Illini were 20-6 with 12 games of 90 or better. The beat Indiana in Huff Hall 104 to 101 and lost the return match to Indiana 100 to 103. Dave Downey set the Illinois single game scoring record in the loss with 53 points.
Harry Combes era. He thought defense was something you played in football. But his teams could run and gun.
 
#336      

OrangeBlue98

Des Moines, IA
Would you rather have this or giving up 38 points to Penn St. and loosing? The NBA style game can’t hurt recruiting.
Oh, to be clear, I would MUCH rather watch this style of play all else equal. The end of the Weber era was painful.

I'm not asking for Dick Bennett at Wisconsin levels of defense (we'll probably never see that given how the game is called today anyway). I just want to see reasonably good defense. Reasonably good defense for Illinois would mean a legitimate chance at a national championship. I get they may not have all of the pieces for that type of defense. For example, there's no good rim protector. But I still struggle seeing a team with the overall athleticism of this Illinois team struggle so much defensively. Unfortunately, we're late enough in the season that I'm not sure you can really make a major scheme adjustment. They just may need to ride with what they have with some smaller adjustments.
 
#337      
We played a team that was on an insane shooting bender, and we have people here who want to go zone or go under screens. Many of whom say this without realizing if you do that, you’re going to give them even more open looks.

If we did that, it would be, “Our defense sucks. We went from giving them open looks to WIDE open looks.”

This is why the coaches, like @illini0440, coach.
 
#338      
We played a team that was on an insane shooting bender, and we have people here who want to go zone or go under screens. Many of whom say this without realizing if you do that, you’re going to give them even more open looks.

If we did that, it would be, “Our defense sucks. We went from giving them open looks to WIDE open looks.”

This is why the coaches, like @illini0440, coach.
If it was just the Minnesota game, I'd agree with you. However, if you look at the body of work, our defense is objectively bad. The PSU game was basically a layup drill for PSU on offense, same with Maryland. You can accept it when the other team makes a series of contested 3's, but it's pretty hard to understand a defense that time after time allows a post player to back down a smaller defender in the paint with no defensive help
 
#339      
When someone asks a question like this it becomes my mission to find an answer. Which usually involves the arduous task of typing some words into a Google search. And usually failing to find an answer. But this time, I didn't have to go far, though. It happened just last year (I don't know if there are other examples as I stopped as soon as I found one). Iowa 112-106 Michigan State (Feb 25, 2023) albeit, it did go into OT. But, it was almost done in regulation as the score at the end of regulation was 101-101
Don't ever think your efforts are not appreciated!
 
#341      
In the month of February we had the #1 ranked offense in the country and the #269 ranked defense.

At this point I'm just going to marvel at the spectacular volatility and enjoy riding this atomic bomb to the fiery finish.
Back on News Years Eve weekend, when I was visiting family in PA, I told my BiLs that we'll see what's going to happen. BUT, the Illini are going to be fun to watch.
 
#342      
Oh, to be clear, I would MUCH rather watch this style of play all else equal. The end of the Weber era was painful.

I'm not asking for Dick Bennett at Wisconsin levels of defense (we'll probably never see that given how the game is called today anyway). I just want to see reasonably good defense. Reasonably good defense for Illinois would mean a legitimate chance at a national championship. I get they may not have all of the pieces for that type of defense. For example, there's no good rim protector. But I still struggle seeing a team with the overall athleticism of this Illinois team struggle so much defensively. Unfortunately, we're late enough in the season that I'm not sure you can really make a major scheme adjustment. They just may need to ride with what they have with some smaller adjustments.
I am old school. I prefer the 45 second shot clock. I think 30 second shot clocks encourage more NBA style play, which hurts less athletic players.
 
#343      

Big Jack

Decatur
We played a team that was on an insane shooting bender, and we have people here who want to go zone or go under screens. Many of whom say this without realizing if you do that, you’re going to give them even more open looks.

If we did that, it would be, “Our defense sucks. We went from giving them open looks to WIDE open looks.”

This is why the coaches, like @illini0440, coach.

Some people just don't get it.. save you voice! They just fill the need to !!!!! and complain... If you were not at that game then shut the hell up. Because if you were at that game you would understand you saw maybe a once in lifetime college basketball game for the ages and we won.. Nuff Said!
 
#344      
This!!! Like I get it that we aren’t a zone team, but how about throw in a 3-2 and a 1-3-1 zone just to make the other team change their mindset. Who cares if we give up an open three. We are anyways. It’s not like going to zone then make us give up a four pointer.

It causes the other team to suddenly change their thinking for a possession and wondering will Illinois do it again.

Don’t care if we get a stop or not. Just change it up. Maybe it gets the other team out of their flow and when we switch back to man to man, maybe they’re no longer in their flow.
I’ve wondered this myself. As a HS coach typically we’d switch zone to man or vice versa just to keep the offense guessing. It could even be for one play for for a SLOB/BLOB, I think trying that is at least worth a shot.
 
#345      

OrangeBlue98

Des Moines, IA
I am old school. I prefer the 45 second shot clock. I think 30 second shot clocks encourage more NBA style play, which hurts less athletic players.
Reasonable minds can certainly differ on this, but overall I do like the faster-paced game. I live in Iowa, and Iowa high schools adopted the 35-second shot clock starting with last season (Side note - I was actually a radio play-by-play announcer on the infamous 2016 Iowa 4A/large school state semifinal where one team stalled all four minutes of both overtimes before hitting the game-winning shot at the end of the second overtime. I feel like that was the game that eventually led to national adoption of the shot clock in high school, even though it took 6-7 years). Even in high school, a shorter shot clock improves the flow of the game. Conversely, I actually think a shorter shot clock actually helps good defenses that work on getting stops. Before the shot clock in general or the shorter shot clock, offenses could get away with more with defenses that weren't good at getting steals.

I always had this conversation with the coach at the high school where I used to live and did the radio play-by-play. His team always played great defense, but they never blocked a lot of shots or got a lot of steals. He was always hesitant about the shot clock, but I would always tell him that a shot clock would be great for his team. If they play great defense for 33 seconds without a shot clock, the opponent can just keep passing the ball around. With a 35-second shot clock, if you play 33 seconds of great defense the other team is forced to take a bad shot.

While I don't want to see the NCAA go to a 24-second shot clock like in the NBA and the Olympics (30 is great in my opinion), I feel like the day is coming where the NCAA will just adopt the FIBA/international/Olympic rules as their standard. The big tell for me was moving to the international three-point line.
 
#346      
Reasonable minds can certainly differ on this, but overall I do like the faster-paced game. I live in Iowa, and Iowa high schools adopted the 35-second shot clock starting with last season (Side note - I was actually a radio play-by-play announcer on the infamous 2016 Iowa 4A/large school state semifinal where one team stalled all four minutes of both overtimes before hitting the game-winning shot at the end of the second overtime. I feel like that was the game that eventually led to national adoption of the shot clock in high school, even though it took 6-7 years). Even in high school, a shorter shot clock improves the flow of the game. Conversely, I actually think a shorter shot clock actually helps good defenses that work on getting stops. Before the shot clock in general or the shorter shot clock, offenses could get away with more with defenses that weren't good at getting steals.

I always had this conversation with the coach at the high school where I used to live and did the radio play-by-play. His team always played great defense, but they never blocked a lot of shots or got a lot of steals. He was always hesitant about the shot clock, but I would always tell him that a shot clock would be great for his team. If they play great defense for 33 seconds without a shot clock, the opponent can just keep passing the ball around. With a 35-second shot clock, if you play 33 seconds of great defense the other team is forced to take a bad shot.

While I don't want to see the NCAA go to a 24-second shot clock like in the NBA and the Olympics (30 is great in my opinion), I feel like the day is coming where the NCAA will just adopt the FIBA/international/Olympic rules as their standard. The big tell for me was moving to the international three-point line.
Thank you for the details and interesting story about 2016. While I agree the 30 second shot helps defenses. My point was that it hurts offenses. Especially, for less athletic players who can’t create their own shots. Offenses that require more passing, cutting, similar to our 2005 team is what I miss.
 
#348      
4 year student manager, not quite 7 years from a bachelor degree.

Nice try cherry-picking.

A kid.

Also, he’s an assistant. Just like many of us have an assistant. You don’t give an assistant power to make big impactful decisions, you as the leader make them.

This isn’t Brad’s first bad defense either.
I'm sorry Mr. Hamer Sr., didn't mean to insult your son and I will say that him being the reason our defense is some hot dog water is little more than message board fodder and innuendo at this point, I can agree with that 100%

But unless you really are ZH's dad.... I think you might have a problem with grasping basic facts: in what world is a 28 year old still a kid? Him being a student manager while in college doesn't make any difference (you do realize that time as a construct continues to move forward right?). You said it yourself, he's literally been out of college for almost 2x the time he was in college.

Also here's where our defense has ranked previously from the 19-20 season onwards, after his first couple seasons Brad consistently put a top 35 Defense on the floor:
35th
7th
29th
26th


And sorry, of course the buck stops with Brad but if ZH actually is in charge of the defense this year, to say we can't criticize a P5 Asst. coach (making 200k+ again) because he's "only" 7 years removed from college might be the one of the worst takes ever seen on this board lmfao
 
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#349      
Reasonable minds can certainly differ on this, but overall I do like the faster-paced game. I live in Iowa, and Iowa high schools adopted the 35-second shot clock starting with last season (Side note - I was actually a radio play-by-play announcer on the infamous 2016 Iowa 4A/large school state semifinal where one team stalled all four minutes of both overtimes before hitting the game-winning shot at the end of the second overtime. I feel like that was the game that eventually led to national adoption of the shot clock in high school, even though it took 6-7 years). Even in high school, a shorter shot clock improves the flow of the game. Conversely, I actually think a shorter shot clock actually helps good defenses that work on getting stops. Before the shot clock in general or the shorter shot clock, offenses could get away with more with defenses that weren't good at getting steals.

I always had this conversation with the coach at the high school where I used to live and did the radio play-by-play. His team always played great defense, but they never blocked a lot of shots or got a lot of steals. He was always hesitant about the shot clock, but I would always tell him that a shot clock would be great for his team. If they play great defense for 33 seconds without a shot clock, the opponent can just keep passing the ball around. With a 35-second shot clock, if you play 33 seconds of great defense the other team is forced to take a bad shot.

While I don't want to see the NCAA go to a 24-second shot clock like in the NBA and the Olympics (30 is great in my opinion), I feel like the day is coming where the NCAA will just adopt the FIBA/international/Olympic rules as their standard. The big tell for me was moving to the international three-point line.
Man... That had to be some riveting play by play... Were you doing a full stand up by the 2nd overtime?
 
#350      
No way is Hamer making $200,000/year

Haha! Actually all UI employee salaries are public as its a state institution. See below, he actually makes more than the Head Women's Soccer Coach in fact!:
1709306117417.png
 
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