Illinois #13 in 1/6 AP Poll

Very rudimentary analysis, but it is interesting to see the AP Poll compared to each team's NET Ranking. Below is the AP top 25 with the difference compared to a team's NET Ranking in parentheses. Basically, it's in order of the AP, and the difference from the NET is in parentheses, using the following color key:

NET is 5+ higher than AP ranking
NET is fewer than 5 points off from AP ranking
NET is 5+ lower than AP ranking

AP Top 25 (Difference From NET)
1. Tennessee (-2)
2. Auburn (+1)
3. Iowa State (-2)
4. Duke (+2)
5. Alabama (-4)
6. Kentucky (-6)
7. Marquette (-4)
8. Florida (---)
9. UConn (-14)
10. Texas A&M (-7)
11. Kansas (+1)
12. Houston (+8)
13. Illinois (+6)
14. Mississippi State (+1)
15. Oregon (-5)
16. Michigan State (-3)
17. Oklahoma (-30)
18. Gonzaga (+13)
19. Memphis (-15)
20. Purdue (-7)
21. West Virginia (-5)
22. UCLA (+4)
23. Ole Miss (-6)
24. Michigan (+10)
25. Utah State (-3)
RV 26. Pitt (+11)
RV 27. Nebraska (-6)
RV 28. Arkansas (-12)
RV 29. Baylor (+5)
RV 30. Wisconsin (+5)

So just using this, the five most overrated teams are...
Oklahoma (-30)
Memphis (-15)
Arkansas (-12)
Texas A&M (-7)
Purdue (-7)

... and the five most underrated teams are...
Gonzaga (+13)
Pitt (+11)
Michigan (+10)
Houston (+8)
Illinois (+6)

Just an interesting exercise! If the season ended today, it looks like Oklahoma would be that one classic outlier team that has a shiny top 20 ranking and then gets slapped with a #9 seed.

Well, I guess I will just drop this here. I look around and see no one’s watching, so what happens to this, I know nothing.

bbloomquist@elpasotimes.com

(I don’t know if it is a valid address, though)

Piotyr said:

This is a difficult check to do in hindsight, as all the efficiency metrics continue to update during the tournament so naturally they tend to look really good by the end of the season compared to tourney performance (for example, the national champion has finished in the top 3 of KenPom ratings in 20 of the last 23 tournaments (UConn 14, UConn 11, Syracuse 03), which is obviously helped by those teams getting 3-4 good quality Q1 wins in the tournament.

I will say that since the committee switched from RPI (which was and continues to be a terrible metric) to NET, the seeding has more closely resembled the efficiency metrics and has been better overall.

The AP poll has never been even a minor influence on seeding, evident most back in 2017 when 19th ranked Syracuse did not make the NCAA tournament (they were 55th in KenPom, and finished 19-15 without playing even a single non conference game outside NY, their ranking was pure fantasy).

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Yeah, figured so. However, I have a hunch that the AP Poll still has an influence or it least its bias is the same as the committee. So that traditional or at least recently strong teams, get a boost. Analytics are certainly gaining more influence especially since 2017.

pruman91 said:

I have learned more about the AP poll here in the last couple of years with info coming out where each pollster voted and their personal info......I now put more emphasis on the coaches poll as it's their input in their chosen field of employment and it stands to reason that have watched film on most all of the teams under consideration for their vote........

The lunacy of some being completely left off the AP poll by the media compared to those voted for by the coaches tells me some if not most of the media voters do very little research on who to vote for or at least , they have far less info than the coaches on who and where to select teams for the polls.......

I would expect the coaches poll will be drastically better for the Illini today compared to the AP..................JMHO..........

my guess is........................

coaches poll............................# 15
AP poll .....................................# 18

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When Tate had an AP vote, he always said it was just guesswork because he hadn't seen most of the teams play.

IlliniFan42 said:

I get it though, Auburn has lost and it's not like Tennessee is ducking real teams so their undefeated record has real value. Wait to see who TN loses to and compare that to the Duke loss Auburn sustained.

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Well the path is wide open now after the beating Tennessee just took.