Illinois #13 in 3/11 AP Poll

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#6      

lstewart53x3

lstewart53x3
Scottsdale, Arizona
lstewart53x3
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Probably the least important AP Poll of the year, but still stupid ... losing a close game to #3 Purdue plus winning handily on the road vs. a previously surging Iowa team should be good for at least holding serve.
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I agree. Auburn jumped us with two wins this week. One on the road against Q3 NET 156 Missouri and a home win against Q3 NET 101 Georgia.

Meanwhile, we lost by 6 to Q1A NET 2 Purdue and won by 12 on the road against Q1 NET 60 Iowa.
 
#7      

Butters

B
Butters
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Probably the least important AP Poll of the year, but still stupid ... losing a close game to #3 Purdue plus winning handily on the road vs. a previously surging Iowa team should be good for at least holding serve.
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Our wins and losses don't occur in a bubble, just looking at what we did will never be enough to get a clear idea of what the poll movement will be.
 
#8      

IlliniRunIn07

IlliniRunIn07
Tampa, FL
IlliniRunIn07
Didn't like 8 teams ahead of us lose too? How the hell did we drop? I know it doesn't mean a whole lot, but I expected us to move up a spot or two
 
#10      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
IlliniCub 16 said:
And we moved ahead of Baylor. I certainly understand Kentucky jumping ahead, but all Auburn did was beat Georgia at home.
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But Illini did lose at home, albeit to the #3 team. Auburn did have two more double digit Quad 3 wins last week. Not going to complain about them jumping Illinois (especially if voters are looking at the metrics that love Auburn). Losing one spot seems about right to me. Though it is easy to see that there is really not much separating 5-15. If Illinois had beaten Purdue, I think Illinois would have jumped to 7 or 8. However, handle business this week (yes, I think winning the B1G tourney is possible), we should easily be top 8 in next week's poll that does not matter at all.
 
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#11      

Illini in OC

Illini in OC
In. The. Alley.
Illini in OC
illini0440 said:
Yeah. They love Auburn based off their metrics. Idk.
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Hmmm. I hate Auburn based off the presence of Satan himself.

What a POS...
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#16      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Johnny Lawrence said:
The B10 being so terrible doesn't help. Can't get many resume building wins when you don't have any chances save for Purdue.
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Yep, the PERCEPTION of the conference being down unfortunately is the reality. While the Big Ten didn't do much in March Madness in either season, look at the opportunities we had against ranked foes in 2021 and 2022 during conference play, for comparison:

2021: 8-2 Record --> #1 seed in NCAAT
L at #19 Rutgers
L vs. #21 Ohio State
W vs. #7 Iowa
W vs. #19 Wisconsin
W at #23 Wisconsin
W at #2 Michigan
W at #7 Ohio State
W vs. #5 Iowa (BTT)
W vs. #9 Ohio State (BTT)


2022: 4-3 Record --> #4 Seed in NCAAT
L vs. #4 Purdue
W vs. #10 Michigan State
W vs. #11 Wisconsin
L at #3 Purdue
W at #19 Michigan State
L vs. #22 Ohio State
W vs. #24 Iowa

2024: 0-2 Record --> Projected #4 Seed in NCAAT
L at #1 Purdue
L vs. #3 Purdue
[Only opportunity in BTT is championship game vs. #3 Purdue...]

So that is a decrease from 10 opportunities in 2021 to 7 in 2022 to just 2 in 2024. While we do appear to be on track for the same seed we got in 2022, a stronger Big Ten likely has our current resume as a comfortable #3 seed and hoping/still playing for a #2 seed.
 
#17      

Alma 19

A
Alma 19
Why are the likes of Baylor, Kansas, Alabama ahead of us in most bracket projections but behind in the AP poll? Are there different criteria? Shouldn't the resume be analyzed in the same way?
(and yes I know there are different people behind them but the media always seems to reach a consensus)
 
#18      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
Alma 19 said:
Why are the likes of Baylor, Kansas, Alabama ahead of us in most bracket projections but behind in the AP poll? Are there different criteria? Shouldn't the resume be analyzed in the same way?
(and yes I know there are different people behind them but the media always seems to reach a consensus)
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Yes. Different criteria. AP voters are generally biased significantly. In addition, the committee takes a much more extensive analysis of the data than media (as they should).
 
#19      

madillini4

madillini4
Ozamataz Buckshank
Millywaukee
madillini4
Alma 19 said:
Why are the likes of Baylor, Kansas, Alabama ahead of us in most bracket projections but behind in the AP poll? Are there different criteria? Shouldn't the resume be analyzed in the same way?
(and yes I know there are different people behind them but the media always seems to reach a consensus)
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AP poll is what have you done for me lately, bracket projections are full body of work.
 
#21      

Goillinikobd

Goillinikobd
Southeastern US
Goillinikobd
Off topic, but I have a soft spot for Indiana State, who lost the tourney final, but is still net 29 (was 26). Can’t Larry Bird lean on the committee?
 
#25      

ever

E
ever
madillini4 said:
AP poll is what have you done for me lately, bracket projections are full body of work.
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I agree that the AP doesn't (and shouldn't) mean much.

But I'm not sure the bracket projections are based on a full body of work either. Going by the Massey Composite, many other ranking systems agree that Alabama (#12), Baylor (#14), and Kansas (#17) are behind us (#11). This may change as more rankings systems release their weekly updates later today.

It looks like NET hurts us (#15) and helps Alabama (#8), but definitely doesn't explain Kansas (#18) or even Baylor (#14).

It isn't just that the composite ranking is dominated by bad ranking systems. Pomeroy is mentioned frequently around here, and we're 10 (Alabama: 11, Baylor: 14, Kansas: 18).

Seems like significant bias in the projected brackets towards Kansas and some towards Baylor.
 
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