drsmitty74
- Rochester
Where you always get a free Onion!
Illinois #14 in 1/29 AP Poll
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You think we’d lose to a 13 seed?
Agreed. With just about 2/3 of the season in the books, I don't think that anyone truly knows who we are. I wish that we had a big win to point at, but we really don't. It feels like this squad could get on a roll, but after these last couple of weeks....it also feels like it could be a dud ending. Everyone is looking at TJ right now, which doesn't really compliment what we were doing well when he was out. Hoping things clock starting tomorrow night.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Not surprising and totally fair ... we have been "treading water" since the Maryland loss, and voters need to see that a top 10 team (especially with its star back) can string together wins. I think if we split again, we will drop significantly. Regardless of how "tough" either game is, our back is somewhat against the wall here ... OSU is on the road, but they have NOT looked like a good team. We simply have to win. Conversely, Nebraska might be pretty good this year, but it's a weekend home game in Champaign ... you DO NOT lose that one if you are a top 10 team.
Additionally, I think if we win two this week - as we should - we likely won't climb too much. Anything can happen in college hoops, but a lot of teams ranked ahead of us play at home and/or against worse teams. The only real one that stands out is #12 Iowa State playing at #18 Baylor.
This is not a "glamorous" week for our Illini. It's a roll up your sleeves and win the games you should kind of week. We need two wins, period, period, period.
Additionally, I think if we win two this week - as we should - we likely won't climb too much. Anything can happen in college hoops, but a lot of teams ranked ahead of us play at home and/or against worse teams. The only real one that stands out is #12 Iowa State playing at #18 Baylor.
This is not a "glamorous" week for our Illini. It's a roll up your sleeves and win the games you should kind of week. We need two wins, period, period, period.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Definitely disagree that we would lose in the First Round right now. We would likely play an opponent the quality of Indiana ... so in other words, somebody we very well could "survive" against even if we are not playing well that game. Unfortunately, we are DEFINITELY playing like a team that would need hot shooting to get to the Sweet Sixteen ... and you just cannot count on that. You have to rebound, get to the hoop and "tough out" games in March sometimes.
We'll get there, though ... I'm still quite optimistic. Shannon has a LOT on his mind, and he's still re-adjusting.
I took it as he meant one win and done, which would be a fair assessment....as we sit this very second. Still time to turn that perception around.You think we’d lose to a 13 seed?
Edit: If he meant one game and we're bounced, that seems unlikely, though if we were in a 5/12 game.... we'd be the en vogue team to be picked to get upset.
IlliniwekKDR
- Colorado Springs, CO
One and done, meaning one game, lose it in the first round? Or one and done meaning we win one and then are done in the 2nd round? As a 4ish seed currently, I find it hard to imagine we would be likely to lose to a 13 seed
Agree with most of what you're saying. Unfortunately, however, I think we need to win ugly two more times. I figured for as long as we lost Shannon it would take 5 games for both he (get his game legs under him - the shot is clearly off and this is normal) and the team (chemistry - so obvious that we've gone away from excellent ball movement and cutting leading to open 3s and layups/dunks and relying on one-on-one offense with guys standing around) to get back to pre-suspension flow. In my opinion, we were a top 5 team before the suspension. If we can gut out a pair of wins this week it would be huge and could give us a real chance to make a run at the conference title. Most importantly I want that "flow" back offensively (cutting and ball movement) and would love to dig down and/or double team other teams that have good bigs instead of leaving Co-Hawk on an island. Had we shut down the Maryland and Indiana bigs with doubles we'd have won both games including a blowout against Indiana (especially since they lack the 3 ball). Stay patient Illini Nation! We're getting close! ILL
IlliniwekKDR
- Colorado Springs, CO
*Sigh* I just wasted way too much time going down a YouTube rabbit hole of reliving my childhood with these commercials
sacraig
- The desert
We've had a tumultuous season driven by non-basketball issues that, I think, have derailed our momentum. To me, the question is going to be how long does it take for TSJ to shake off the rust and re-integrate with the team. Hopefully that's fast enough that we can get back into the 2-/3-seed conversation. But the most important thing is just that it occurs before the tournament.
It is going to have to occur during the first week of March games against Wisky and PU to get a 2/3 seed.
This guy runs my son's travel league baseball organization.
Aside from their terrible loss to Chicago State, Northwestern's resume is quite good.
But Quad 4 losses are absolute killers to NET Ranking.
Northwestern is 4-4 in Quad 1 games, yet still ranked below many teams with far worse Quad 1 records (Ex: Iowa 0-6; Gonzaga 0-4, SMU 0-4, Florida 0-6, etc.). Quad 4 losses hurt more than Quad 1 wins help.
You really think that if we win our next 8 games we are still a 4 seed or worse? If we are 23-5 on March 1st then I would have to guess we are ranked in the top 5 nationally.
Evidently the polls use the net ranking
AP-14
Coaches-14
Net-14
My lucky number. Ernie Banks 14 for the Cubs. Let's play 2.
AP-14
Coaches-14
Net-14
My lucky number. Ernie Banks 14 for the Cubs. Let's play 2.
sacraig
- The desert
Especially the way the rest of the top 10-15 teams keep dropping games. This is not a very top heavy season.
These are sick. Do you make these? Feel like Dan should give these their own thread to sticky them to the top and have them update throughout the week. This is awesome. Thank you
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I definitely agree with this. Just for fun, I feel like we generally looked like the following in our games from Braggin' Rights until now (only counting major opponents, FWIW):
vs. Missouri: Legitimate Final Four threat.
vs. Northwestern: A CLEAR top 15 team, but it was still difficult to tell if it was a post-suspension "rally around the flag" effect and if it was sustainable.
at Purdue: Complicated ... a fringe top 25 team at times and a legit top 15 team at times.
vs. Michigan State: A solid top 20 team ... took care of business vs. (what I believe to be) a good team even when stuff didn't go our way.
vs. Maryland: A straight-up Bubble team ... talent and good moments but generally blech.
at Michigan: A clear top 15 team again, at least in the second half.
vs. Rutgers: Even more variation than Purdue, IMO ... a top 25 team for most of the game and a fringe top 10 team when we put them away.
at Northwestern: Overall, maybe a very unlucky top 20 team? Not sure, honestly. Either way, not back to form.
vs. Indiana: Again, way too much variation ... generally just a solid NCAA Tournament team but nothing overly impressive.
What's got people a bit on edge, IMO, is that the second half response vs. Michigan was really encouraging. Then even though there were some awkward stretches vs. Rutgers, the feel-good nature of TSJ's immediate impact assists plus pulling away so convincingly kept most off the ledge. It is really these last two games where it has become apparent that we are still working TSJ back into how we do things in a major way AND he is still a bit rusty.
On the positive side, I do believe it will click again. And when it does, there simply isn't a game left on the schedule we can't win if we start playing like we were just before the suspension. Heck, our effort vs. Michigan night in and night out picks up no more than 2-3 more losses, IMO. Fans are just nervous because we want that, "We're BACK!" game.
redwingillini11
White and Sixth
- North Aurora
I prefer us having a chip on our shoulder than being fat and happy. Hopefully by Selection Sunday we get a top 3 seed. Until then, I don't really care where we are rated.
Losing to Chicago State on NUs home floor was/is a major downer. The look on coach Collins face when the final buzzer sounded said it all.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
That's the other thing I don't think enough fans are considering ... while we do need to pick up more Quad 1 wins, we will have quite a few more opportunities. Teams have been dropping like flies this year ... hence why going 3-3 from January 5th to January 29th (including a Quad 3 loss at home) only dropped us from #9 to #14 ... including a jump from #14 to #10 in there after beating Rutgers at home and a terrible Michigan team on the road.
The point is somebody has to fill those 16 spots for a #4 seed or above. They don't SOUND like the kind of splashy wins like beating #4 Marquette at home or winning at #17 Tennessee would have been, but it really should not be unrealistic for this squad to go 7-1 before we head into Madison if we have our heads right and start to reestablish the pre-suspension groove. And people can say those are not impressive enough of wins, but take a look (by the way, I wouldn't count us out in East Lansing ... just for illustrative purposes!).
TODAY ... Illini are 15-5 (2-4 vs. Q1 and 3-0 vs. Q2).
W at #68 Ohio State (Quad 1 W)
W vs. #60 Nebraska (Quad 2 W)
L at #25 Michigan State (Quad 1 L)
W vs. #101 Michigan (Quad 3 W)
W at #81 Maryland (Quad 2 W)
W at #126 Penn State (Quad 2 W)
W vs. #57 Iowa (Quad 2 W)
W vs. #92 Minnesota (Quad 3 W)
HEADING INTO MADISON ON 3/2 ... Illini are 22-6 (3-5 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2).
Not that many teams will have a better resume with two weeks to go, IMO. And that doesn't take into account something like Maryland sneaking into the top 75 if they continue to play better. Plus, if you ARE riding this high going into Madison and playing with this much confidence, the really important component of this is that we would be 22-6, playing our best and ending with these three Quad 1 opportunities:
at #11 Wisconsin (Quad 1)
vs. #2 Purdue (Quad 1)
at #57 Iowa (Quad 1)
It's not so much that we would have a top 2-3 seed just from a 7-1 record in our next 8, it's that we would be on track to be playing for one. If we swept those last three because we were just on a roll and ended up at 25-6 (6-5 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2), all of a sudden you are holding out hope for a ONE seed if there is enough chaos!
They also beat Purdue at home.
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