Illinois #14 in 12/1 AP Poll

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#26      
Fighter of the Nightman
RE: Trying to guess some of our upcoming future opponents' rankings since I am in a long, boring car ride ...

Dec. 13 vs. (RV) #28 Nebraska ... The Huskers have (4-3) Creighton and a somewhat struggling Wisconsin squad in Lincoln before they travel to Champaign. I would bet that we welcome a ranked Huskers squad to SFC in 12 days.

Dec. 22 vs. (RV) #30 Missouri ... Missouri plays two cupcakes at home, at (5-3) Notre Dame and vs. #21 Kansas in KC before Braggin' Rights. I think if they can win on the road vs. ND, we might get our first top 25 matchup at Braggin' Rights since 2012-13, even if Mizzou drops a close one to Kansas.

Jan. 11 vs. (RV) #26 Iowa ... I know it is a ways off, but don't look know - Iowa is undefeated and the first team in the RV category. They have two really tough tests coming up at #7 Michigan State (tomorrow) and at #10 Iowa State (Dec. 11), but even if they drop both they have an excellent chance to be 13-2 as the Illini come to town in January, with their only two losses being to top 10 teams on the road. I am hoping this will be a hyped top 25 battle when the time comes, as the rivalry needs a little new juice!
 
#28      
derrick6
NarrowJ said:
Idk... we always seem to argue the opposite...

EDIT: In fact, the previous thread that was closed this morning has folks saying we would drop more than we should because lack of [national] respect

EDIT 2: Just went and looked at KP, EvanMiya, Torvik and #14 is in line with those metrics, so I think it holds up
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I mean respect from the national stage that we haven’t enjoyed in recent years. The tide is turning it seems. Let’s not lose the momentum (coaches).

If I were a betting man I definitely wouldn’t have predicted a single place drop.

And again, Zags moving up after being destroyed by 40!
 
#29      
Juju
Dan said:
Illinois #14 in AP Poll

apnews.com

NCAA College Basketball Rankings: AP Top 25 Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA men's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2025-26 season.
apnews.com apnews.com
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Maybe the pollsters saw that we got absolutely screwed out of the chance of making a 7-point game a 4-point game when the refs essentially decided to just give out 4 points to UConn and make it an 11-point game near the end. 😁
 
#30      
NarrowJ
derrick6 said:
I mean respect from the national stage that we haven’t enjoyed in recent years. The tide is turning it seems. Let’s not lose the momentum (coaches).

If I were a betting man I definitely wouldn’t have predicted a single place drop.

And again, Zags moving up after being destroyed by 40!
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Ahh yea I got ya now 👍 and that’s silly on Gonzaga… AP voters… sheesh
 
#31      
derrick6
NarrowJ said:
Biggest question right now (for me) is if the shooting is what it is or if we see some positive regression there
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Agree. However, we’ve never really been a great 3 point shooting team under Underwood. There would need to be a change in philosophy/strategy, imo.

“Take the open shot” seems to backfire when the opposing team leaves the guys we don’t want taking volume shots open. We also don’t seem to shoot in rhythm as we are thinking, “am I open? Yes. Should I shoot?” before the ball is flying.

I continue to point to Purdue that runs action to get players shots in rhythm.

Obviously, fandom drivel here, but hey.
 
#33      
Calvin
From what I've seen this season, we're not the 14th best team in the country. We absolutely rolled weak non-conf teams, which usually means you're anywhere from top 40 to best in the nation. But when the lights were bright, we're 1-2. Bama was close -- they fought down to the wire and couldn't get over the hump. UConn was not, although you could see a small chance at the upset if you squint. If I were a voter, I'd probably have us around 20 --not that big of a deal to lose to other elite teams. To his credit, Brad scheduled tough this year, and I like the confidence it takes to get battle tested.

It's tough to be optimistic after a bad shooting game, but TN is a chance to reset. 🤞
 
#34      
NarrowJ
derrick6 said:
Agree. However, we’ve never really been a great 3 point shooting team under Underwood. There would need to be a change in philosophy/strategy, imo.

“Take the open shot” seems to backfire when the opposing team leaves the guys we don’t want taking volume shots open. We also don’t seem to shoot in rhythm as we are thinking, “am I open? Yes. Should I shoot?” before the ball is flying.

I continue to point to Purdue that runs action to get players shots in rhythm.

Obviously, fandom drivel here, but hey.
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Underwood teams are 35% or better from three in only 4 of his 9 seasons... his first couple years, ok fine they were bad and had holdovers from previous regime, but outside of that it hasn't been good (3 of those 7 seasons still under 35%).

Is it recruiting certain players? His emphasis on defense & rebounding has guys with tired legs? I agree that even wide open looks at times guys just do not look like they are ready to shoot for whatever reason.

But, I get to looking at Dan Hurley's teams and he's been at UConn a similar # of seasons and their 3 point shooting percentages look similar to ours except his poorer shooting teams were at the beginning of his tenure and Brad's are this season and last season plus the infuriating 22-23 team. It's become a trend and is something we desperately need to find an answer for.
 
#35      
EmeraldCityIllini
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
14 is a surprise after the way UConn handled us. I suppose that late comeback made an impression.
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Gotta have some other teams warrant being ahead of you.

UNC is probably the only one with a real case. If we’re keeping it a buck, Florida at 15 is FAR more generous than us at 14

Edit: and we’ll find out about Florida. They got Duke tomorrow and UConn next Tuesday. And yiiiiikes they’ve looked shaky.
 
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#36      
Scoregasm
NarrowJ said:
Underwood teams are 35% or better from three in only 4 of his 9 seasons... his first couple years, ok fine they were bad and had holdovers from previous regime, but outside of that it hasn't been good (3 of those 7 seasons still under 35%).

Is it recruiting certain players? His emphasis on defense & rebounding has guys with tired legs? I agree that even wide open looks at times guys just do not look like they are ready to shoot for whatever reason.

But, I get to looking at Dan Hurley's teams and he's been at UConn a similar # of seasons and their 3 point shooting percentages look similar to ours except his poorer shooting teams were at the beginning of his tenure and Brad's are this season and last season plus the infuriating 22-23 team. It's become a trend and is something we desperately need to find an answer for.
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This team could feast at 2s if we scheme for it more. We have the talent for it, but we are stuck with 3s at a low percentage....very frustrating.
 
#37      
NarrowJ
Scoregasm said:
This team could feast at 2s if we scheme for it more. We have the talent for it, but we are stuck with 3s at a low percentage....very frustrating.
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Did you see how UConn packed in the middle in the 2nd half when we couldn't make anything though? Makes it much harder to 'scheme' for 2s... Andrej could not do much of anything, guys were leaving shooters and attacking him (and Mihailo and Keaton)... we shot 9-22 at the rim because UConn had multiple guys contesting on each attempt

It has been 10 minutes since I looked up all of the numbers for each season, so don't hold me to this short term memory recall :ROFLMAO:, but I do not think Dan Hurley has ever had a team over 35%

That's sort of why I am just hoping we can be a little more consistent with it and maybe like 2 percentage points better, because I totally agree we have a team that can absolutely rip 2s with the floor spread open... just have to shoot it well enough to keep defense from constantly sagging and collapsing

EDIT: I also kind of look at college basketball as a whole, and that's what everybody does now, shoot a lot of 3s... we average 29 for the season, but our opponents average over 26 and the average across D1 is like 25
 
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#38      
Bigtex
It gets old beating quad 4 teams handily and losing to good teams. I think winning by 50+ helps Illinois analytically but doesn't prepare them for the good teams. Playing in holiday tournaments prepares teams for the NCAA (short rest) tourney. 14 seems a little generous right now.
 
#39      
EmeraldCityIllini
Scoregasm said:
This team could feast at 2s if we scheme for it more. We have the talent for it, but we are stuck with 3s at a low percentage....very frustrating.
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I find this discussion infinitely more interesting and necessary than the defense and the “in-game adjustment” stuff.

It’s true we could probably take less, Mirk for one I just don’t think should shoot them. Boswell transition heaves are somewhat tiresome.

So maybe more scheming for match up hunting. But I think what hurts most when we can’t shoot, is we don’t get easy ones in transition. The 2023 team wasn’t great at shooting, but were always elite offensively because they had that trump card. And I wish Brad didn’t move away from that the past year and a half
 
#40      
the juiceman cometh
NarrowJ said:
Ahh yea I got ya now 👍 and that’s silly on Gonzaga… AP voters… sheesh
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Who should be ahead of Gonzaga? Sure, they lost badly to Michigan, the #1 team in KenPom, Torvik, and NET (barf), but they've also beaten a good Bama team on a neutral court (in the same week they lost to Michigan) and cruised through the rest of their schedule. Surely can't put Bama ahead of them, right?

There are a lot of flawed teams out there and you get ranked against real-life teams not hypothetical ones. That's why we only moved down 1 and Gonzaga moved up one.
 
#41      
NarrowJ
the juiceman cometh said:
Who should be ahead of Gonzaga? Sure, they lost badly to Michigan, the #1 team in KenPom, Torvik, and NET (barf), but they've also beaten a good Bama team on a neutral court (in the same week they lost to Michigan) and cruised through the rest of their schedule. Surely can't put Bama ahead of them, right?

There are a lot of flawed teams out there and you get ranked against real-life teams not hypothetical ones. That's why we only moved down 1 and Gonzaga moved up one.
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Thank you, and I should've actually analyzed this before opening my mouth lol

They are very very strong metrics-wise even after getting beat like they did too
 
#42      
Scoregasm
NarrowJ said:
Did you see how UConn packed in the middle in the 2nd half when we couldn't make anything though? Makes it much harder to 'scheme' for 2s... Andrej could not do much of anything, guys were leaving shooters and attacking him (and Mihailo and Keaton)... we shot 9-22 at the rim because UConn had multiple guys contesting on each attempt

It has been 10 minutes since I looked up all of the numbers for each season, so don't hold me to this short term memory recall :ROFLMAO:, but I do not think Dan Hurley has ever had a team over 35%

That's sort of why I am just hoping we can be a little more consistent with it and maybe like 2 percentage points better, because I totally agree we have a team that can absolutely rip 2s with the floor spread open... just have to shoot it well enough to keep defense from constantly sagging and collapsing

EDIT: I also kind of look at college basketball as a whole, and that's what everybody does now, shoot a lot of 3s... we average 29 for the season, but our opponents average over 26 and the average across D1 is like 25
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True about packing it in, but we have an 'elite' big man coach in 'O' and two 7 footers who can be coached by him, plus a raw but talented bulldog built for the low post in Mirk. And one of the best wings in the country at finishing at the rim. And Wagler who is crafty around the rim as well. Seems like we should take 10 less 3s a game and turn those into 2s. I don't know how to do it but it seems like the staff should figure it out.

I didn't mention Kylan because some are sensitive to his frequent layup misses.😬
 
#43      
NarrowJ
Scoregasm said:
True about packing it in, but we have an 'elite' big man coach in 'O' and two 7 footers who can be coached by him, plus a raw but talented bulldog built for the low post in Mirk. And one of the best wings in the country at finishing at the rim. And Wagler who is crafty around the rim as well. Seems like we should take 10 less 3s a game and turn those into 2s. I don't know how to do it but it seems like the staff should figure it out.

I didn't mention Kylan because some are sensitive to his frequent layup misses.😬
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I doubt we'll ever get to 10 less 3s per game, but I wouldn't mind dialing it back from 29 to 22-24 range... again, we have to make 35ish percent not 21 percent in order for that to work, but I agree it has to be less than what it is at the moment

Sidebar: After looking at year-by-year 3 point shooting stats I stumbled upon something interesting with regard to our defense... you can see some of the change in the defensive approach with Crocker as we give up over 26 three point attempts per game... previous seasons: 20.1, 18.0, 17.8, 17.7, 19.7... we had predicated our defensive approach entirely around limiting 3 point attempts
 
#44      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Illinisnake said:
shocked we are #14 shocked......I was thinking #23 or #24.

Futurama Im Shocked GIF
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They'll never drop you 10/11 spots for losing a game to a top 5 team in a road environment.
 
#45      
Todd99
NarrowJ said:
I doubt we'll ever get to 10 less 3s per game, but I wouldn't mind dialing it back from 29 to 22-24 range... again, we have to make 35ish percent not 21 percent in order for that to work, but I agree it has to be less than what it is at the moment

Sidebar: After looking at year-by-year 3 point shooting stats I stumbled upon something interesting with regard to our defense... you can see some of the change in the defensive approach with Crocker as we give up over 26 three point attempts per game... previous seasons: 20.1, 18.0, 17.8, 17.7, 19.7... we had predicated our defensive approach entirely around limiting 3 point attempts
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So you’re saying this year we’re allowing (or forcing) teams to shoot more three’s, rather than higher percentage shots?

I’m not trying to be a smarta$$, I’m seriously asking.
 
#47      
NarrowJ
Todd99 said:
So you’re saying this year we’re allowing (or forcing) teams to shoot more three’s, rather than higher percentage shots?

I’m not trying to be a smarta$$, I’m seriously asking.
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Seems that way, yes... the higher percentage shots are worth 1 pt less so we keep that in mind, but that is what we're doing so far.

It's interesting because we also are 357th in steals, so its not because we are gambling more on that end for turnovers.

Analytically, limiting 3 point attempts is best if you consider what we've allowed in years past: 46% from 2 is about 10% less efficient than 34% from 3. So, this is likely why the focus on limiting 3 point shots: they're just more efficient shots. Though, you get a huge amount of variance with them too, so its not as consistent.

We're allowing a bit lower 2 pt percentage than in seasons past, and our 3 pt percentage allowed is actually lower than our own right now (which we all know isn't very good). If I wasn't watching guys get beat often, I'd probably look at the stats and think our defense has improved a ton... virtually all of our defensive metrics are better than the last two years. I'd also just chalk that up to early season cupcakes but a lot of that stuff is opponent adjusted and we've actually played a better schedule than most to this point.

My theory is that having Big Z down there (and just having a big frontcourt in general) has caused teams to settle for more 3s.
 
#48      
Todd99
NarrowJ said:
Seems that way, yes... the higher percentage shots are worth 1 pt less so we keep that in mind, but that is what we're doing so far.

It's interesting because we also are 357th in steals, so its not because we are gambling more on that end for turnovers.

Analytically, limiting 3 point attempts is best if you consider what we've allowed in years past: 46% from 2 is about 10% less efficient than 34% from 3. So, this is likely why the focus on limiting 3 point shots: they're just more efficient shots. Though, you get a huge amount of variance with them too, so its not as consistent.

We're allowing a bit lower 2 pt percentage than in seasons past, and our 3 pt percentage allowed is actually lower than our own right now (which we all know isn't very good). If I wasn't watching guys get beat often, I'd probably look at the stats and think our defense has improved a ton... virtually all of our defensive metrics are better than the last two years. I'd also just chalk that up to early season cupcakes but a lot of that stuff is opponent adjusted and we've actually played a better schedule than most to this point.

My theory is that having Big Z down there (and just having a big frontcourt in general) has caused teams to settle for more 3s.
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I wonder if there’s a donor level that lets you sit in on a coaches meeting where they discuss this type of stuff. 😂

It would be way more than I have but it sure would be interesting!
 
#49      
Chase321
Reading this thread it’s clear many people don’t watch other teams or read about how other teams are doing. And that’s perfectly fine but don’t then say we are overrated and are just marginally top 25. That just shows you only watch Illinois play, see the flaws and have in your head there are 20-some other teams out there that don’t have big flaws. There aren’t.
 
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