Maybe if they didn't watch the game. I think most people had formed an opinion prior to the last 30 seconds
Illinois 23, Florida Atlantic 17 Postgame
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BZuppke
- Plainfield
I don’t think it’s that smart. It’s playing not to lose. That blows up on teams way more than going up 13 with 90 seconds left. I remember Lou Tepper saying ‘give me 21 points and we’ll beat Penn State!” He was wrong. Penn State scored 31.
None of this makes sense. While improbable, there is still a fraction of a chance of losing the game while up 13, statistically signifantly higher than kneeling the clock out up 6.
You really think the box score matters that much? Recruits don't care about 7 points, and most fans would still complain about not covering the spread against a "bad team". Heck, even the defense was trying to give up the score (it was FAU's only chance of winning).
The last sentences are the craziest. A smart football IQ play should never be called playing conservative and not to lose. Literally scoring was the only real chance we had of losing (unless you expected a fumble on a kneel out).
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
How many examples do you have of a team fumbling and then losing after trying to kneel the clock out for the win? I cannot think of one occurrence college and beyond. So I have no clue how you formulated that opinion. It is 100% not playing to lose! You can have the opinion that they should have scored, but there is no logical universe where what you have stated above is accurate. It seems like you are trying to find any reason to nitpick.
The Lou Tepper quote also makes no sense in the contextual argument you are trying to make.
I agree with you on Altmyer. I legitimately think he's showing all the signs of being the best QB we've had since Kittner. He's already shown he's a great pocket passer, we've just got to give him protection. I think his detractors just don't understand how difficult it is to play QB when your line is giving opponents free shots at you every other play.
As for the line, this is the first time that I will criticize Bielema since he's coached here. He seems to have really misevaluated the talent at the RT position this year. The players he pegged to play RT this year in Gesky and Crisler can't play it, nor can the backups. The only hope is maybe one of the freshmen who almost certainly isn't ready. Hard to understand why Bret didn't see this issue in training camp and more aggressively pursue this position through the portal or through recruiting in prior seasons. Leaving your team with a giant hole at the tackle position, especially for a coach known for great o-lines is mind blowing. Palczewski was a huge loss for us obviously, but Bret had 2 years to figure out the backup plan. Seems like whatever plans he has here was a giant miss.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
The decision to have him lie down is based solely on the tiny chance that FAU could score twice in 90 seconds (fear). Absurd and the height of playing not to lose - which frequently ends in a loss.
It is completely analogous. It’s hamstringing your offense because you’re scared of a team scoring two 2TDs in 90 seconds. How often has that happened. Tepper coached a very conservative offense for fear of turnovers etc. Did you watch his teams? Lost so many close games because of his conservative offense. Beat East Carolina 7-0 because he insisted on pounding the ball all day instead of actually trying to score. I’m of the philosophy of you need to score points to win. When you’re up by only one score I’ll take another TD all day long and take my chances on FAU scoring twice in 90 seconds. I’m not nitpicking. I hate playing scared.
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I don't understand this "statistic analysis"? How can a post game win expectancy after a victory be anything less than 100%?
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
It's not about fear, it's about statistics. Stopping short of the end zone means that we were completely in control of the game narrative, with no need to worry about defending trick plays or hail marys, as well as not worrying about injuries, stupid penalties, etc.
Plus its just downright classy. If another team had scored on us like that, many fans would be griping about it.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
Classy if we were up by 20. I understand your rationale. I just disagree.
Unless you are betting, the final score doesn't matter as long as it's a W. (And in this case I don't think we would have covered even if he scored). The players and coaches know we could have easily won by 13 but we had a smart kid make a smart play to end the game.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
You know if you never pass the ball there’s a zero chance of an interception Coach Hayes.
My concern isn’t the particular play as much as it is the mindset. Tepper and to a much more normal degree Bret play too conservative for my taste and that will bite you in the !!!. Get down big and we have no ability to make a comeback. Have a small lead and play it close to the vest and a fluke play gives you a loss. Score as much as you can and worry about a miracle comeback rather than nurse a 6 point lead because you’re scared a team might somehow score two TDs in 90 seconds.
While there probably are a few examples of a team scoring two TDs in 90 seconds they are far and few between. Cite one for us
Finally I’m a huge Bielema fan, wanted him way before most on this board came around, but I hate these kind of ultra cautious decisions. Yes there was a tiny chance they’d score two 2tds in 90 seconds but what? .001%. I’d throw caution to the wind, score the TD and have faith in my team that they can close out the win.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Post game win probability looks at advanced metrics like success rates, PPA, and scoring opportunities and assesses the probability of each team winning should the game be played again with equivalent stats. In other words, if you take all of the plays in a game and shuffle them into a random order, how often would each team be expected to win?
CollegeFootballData.com
This is the correct take. End the game when you have the chance to. The threat of injury alone, in a game that's in hand is enough to make this clearly the right call. Why force your defense to have to continue to make plays? V formation should be every coach's favorite play to call.
I think what’s hanging some of us up is that you win the game with a 1st down in that situation So it has nothing to do with fear. We’ve already won and the only way to lose (no matter how improbable) is to continue to play the game.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
What's Success Rate?
First off, some housekeeping. A lot of IlliniBoard renewals happen at this time of year. We have an auto-renew system (with a one-click
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Don't care how many no-shows or giveaways there are, we just pulled an "official attendance" of over 20k more than we would have circa 2018 or 2019 for an opponent like FAU ... even if you water that 20k down by 25% or whatever to adjust for unique circumstances, that is amazing movement in fan enthusiasm. So, we should at least take that away as a positive! Let's win in West Lafayette and have a great Friday night crowd for Nebraska!
Defense got cranking after spotting FAU 10 points. Offense has improved some, but more needed. I really like our running backs!
Purdue is beatable. Both teams have this game circled. It will be intense and hard-hitting. If defense plays like it has the last two weeks, and offense can improve a bit this week, I think Illinois has a great chance to come out of Purdue with a win.
Purdue is beatable. Both teams have this game circled. It will be intense and hard-hitting. If defense plays like it has the last two weeks, and offense can improve a bit this week, I think Illinois has a great chance to come out of Purdue with a win.
There is a 0% chance they can win the game if there's no time left on the clock. Staying out of the end zone, while frustrating looking at the score, is absolutely the correct way to close it out!
Agree 100% but less on the classy portion. If we were up more, yes. But I don't think any coach begrudges his opponent going up two scores if they can.
Given our recent history, I think 'stupid penalties' might be an even stronger argument than injuries.
See also Mahomes, Patrick at the end of the first half vs. the Bears.
I really agree with the playing not to lose sentiment, but this is the wrong scenario to debate. The decision here was inconsequential either way.
And if I'm Feagin and feel that the defense let me run by on purpose as some here suggested, I wouldn't want that to be my first TD anyway
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I'm not sure how you extrapolate "fan enthusiasm" from around 25% (or more) empty seats--many of which were free tickets. Enthusiastic fans would have been there.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I mean, to what are you comparing us?? I am comparing us to how our fans felt before Bret got here. And compared to that, we are seeing a nice trend.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I'm comparing it to every game this season and last where there weren't as many empty seats.
To use an old phrase, people with tickets stayed home in droves last Saturday, so I'm not sure what kind of trend that is.
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