Illinois #25 in 11/19 CFB Playoff Rankings
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The answer to this question, I increasingly realize, is "no".
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Honestly I can see both sides here. They haven't beaten anyone worth anything yet (until Saturday maybe?). But at the same time, going 10-0 regardless is a hell of an accomplishment.
11-1 in the BT gets them in pretty easily, IMO.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The thing that's difficult to understand because these conference arrangements are so new is how unlikely it actually is that IU and PSU are closing in on both being 11-1 while ALSO not making the Big Ten title game where they would get a big test against a major opponent.
Is that a weird fluke or the new normal? We've never had conferences this big before, references to history can't really answer that question.
It's definitely a weird fluke that the SEC might end with a top of 6 10-2 teams that look exactly the same. So much so that I'm wagering it won't happen.
Shhhhh, be careful, you're starting to articulate the introductory paragraph to a proposal for something like a 4-team conference playoff in football...
Quick comparison of Power 5ish teams with 2 weeks remaining in regular season:
2024: 2/7/9 (0L/1L/2L)- 18tot
2023: 5/4/7- 16tot
2022: 4/4/8- 16tot
2021: 1/9/4- 14tot
2020: COVID
2019: 3/8/4- 15tot
2018: 3/6/2- 11tot
2017: 3/3/10- 16tot
2016: 1/6/9- 16tot
2015: 4/7/7- 18tot
2014: 1/6/11- 18tot
Ok, so the first question is, is this season an anomaly even to begin with at this point in the season? Based on the numbers, it seems that it isn't, though it's on the high side of normal. 2018 appears to be an outlier with only 11 "good" P5ish teams remaining at this point in the season, but every other one had between 14 and 18 2 or less loss teams. The 9 teams with 1 or less loss this season seems in line with historical data. The 9 teams with 2 losses is high, but still within range of normal. So I actually don't see the historical data suggesting there is anything abnormal or anomalous as of this exact moment in time.
However, I do think the "loss" of a championship game for the 3rd and 4th ranked teams in these new conferences might mean in years past an additional 1-2 teams might have gotten an extra loss by end of season without superleagues.
We'll see what happens over the next 3 weeks, but as of this exact moment in time, this seems like a normal season's worth of 2 or less loss teams, albeit on the higher end of normal.
I was under the impression the winner of ACC & winner of B12 were both assured of a spot as well as the highest rated G5 school
Color me still skeptical on Indiana- a scheduling fluke has them not playing anyone even getting votes for the top 25- so nobody even in the top 40- they’ve played the big tens worst 6 teams and Michigan and Washington (who they both had at home and only beat Michigan by 5)
Even the next tier of Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin- they don’t play any of them. It’s truly remarkable how the schedule broke for them. If they get blown out by OSU Saturday does anyone really want to see them in the playoffs? They likely aren’t one of the 12 best teams just had the easiest schedule in the P4 conferences
SuperMetroid
- Evanston
Not bad for a team that was only supposed to win 4 games.
Five highest rated conference winners, no conference guarantees:
Who qualifies for the college football playoff?
The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will earn a spot in the 12-team bracket. There is no limit to how many teams from one conference can qualify. The rules also don't guarantee spots for certain conferences. The champions of the Big 12, SEC, ACC and Big Ten will almost certainly routinely qualify, though, along with the highest-ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Sun Belt, Mid-American Conference or Conference USA.There is no minimum ranking requirement for the five highest-ranked conference champions. There could be a conference champion ranked No. 23, for example, that's the fifth highest-ranked league winner and earns a spot in the playoff -- at the expense of the committee's No. 12 team.
I am beyond proud of our Illini. Quite a few holes and lack of depth. We have beaten some good teams. Great year, let's finish strong and keep the momentum. It's would be beyond amazing to get to 10 wins in year 4 of Coach B's tenure.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If Army wins out, Notre Dame is almost certainly out as well due to having 2 losses (NIU loss will cripple their chances). Even if B12 finished above Army, I think Army is likely in top 12. That could be a scenario of 6 conference champs in CFP.
I’ve seen on Twitter the past few days that Illinois has a 1% chance of making the playoff. Obviously that won’t happen but what would be a path to make it become more realistic?
I’m assuming some losses in the SEC so less of their teams qualify along with ND losing. What else would have to happen?
I’m assuming some losses in the SEC so less of their teams qualify along with ND losing. What else would have to happen?
And it’s critical to ensure we get Citrus bowl plus another win
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I value and appreciate the historical perspective, but it all pulls at the seams a bit when we're talking about conferences this big where so many teams don't play each other.
It feels like way lower than 1%. We are mathematically eliminated from the B1G title game, and the level of carnage that would have to ensue for 9-3 with no big wins to sneak in is basically unimaginable.
Well, if Indiana beats Ole Miss, Texas, and, say, Georgia to get to the championship game, that would certainly be one of the best "stories" in CFB this century. I'd be rooting for them, even though it would be highly annoying if overnight they attain the tier of B10 teams that Robert has been pining for forever (Iowa, Wisc., etc.)... and it would make me positively ill if they attained the OSU/PSU/UM/UO tier!
(Similar to how distraught we'd all feel if Purdue or Wisconsin wins a basketball natty before us, etc.)
(Similar to how distraught we'd all feel if Purdue or Wisconsin wins a basketball natty before us, etc.)
Depends on how bad they lose. If they get boat raced 49-10, it'd be a tough sell to say they're a playoff team. To date, I don't think that they've beaten anybody that's currently bowl eligible. That said, I don't think we have either.
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