Its not no 2s. The metrics say shooting 5 feet further back fro an extra point is better when comparing FG% vs points for the two (expected points per shot if you will). A layup/dunk is higher percentage, so a good shot, but it’s the same message that coaches have drilled into players heads for DECADES about shooting the 19’ 2 pointer, except extrapolated on shots a little closer.
A huge part of it is with everyone’s overall athleticism improving and a huge focus on the 3 point shot, you get shooters that hit 3s at a better clip than before, so metrics suggest chuck up a bunch of 3s and you’ll do better than chucking up a bunch of 2s.
I think the metrics make sense….assuming you are equally open for both shots. I also think that as you focus too much on the 3, and stop shooting the mid-range, the defense adjusts. This is what we are starting to see throughout college basketball - defenses are adjusting to what the metrics have been telling the offenses to do. Will be interesting what coaches can find a way to crack the new defensive strategies to take away the 3 more.