t7nich
- Central IL
Wrong. He's by far our best PG option right now.
Illinois 76, Iowa 64 POSTGAME
Wrong. He's by far our best PG option right now.
He's certainly been more frequently a positive than TA or JT. I wouldn't say he's been super consistent within games (i.e. hot start v steady contributions, tend to trend towards former), but he's offered more upside and a higher floor than either of the other two, and on both ends.
People who think TJL is too inconsistent or shouldn't be playing 30 minutes need to understand our situation at PG. Of course we wouldn't be having this conversaion if Tracy was still shooting 50% from deep. His complete lack of scoring eliminates his largest positive from the first half of the season. TJL might have two or three TO's each game and they might look bad, but you can't possibly tell me that you'd rather see Abrams running the point. TA has had much worse TO's than TJL. TJL's passes look 100x better than TA and, to an extent, Tate. TJL is a better offensive version of Tate and a better PG than TA right now. I actually don't mind TA at the 2 for short periods. I think that TJL geting 25-30 minutes, JCL 20-30 minutes, TA 5 mins at the 1, 10ish at the 2, Tate 5, and AJ getting whatevers left, is the best backcourt minute share we could throw out there. AJ needs to play. He can shoot the three and brings enough energy to be at least as good as Abrams defending wise. He can't ride the pine in games unless others in front of him are scorching hot. It's redicuous he didnt see a single minute last night. Even if its just 5 he brings something different, and we dont have the talent to afford to let that sit on the bench.
WRT DJW, he's in a really difficult situation. I dont know if Groce would ever play him at the 2 or 4 for more than a minute or two, but if he's just a 3 in Groce's eyes, his minutes are gonna stay at 0. Kipper brings a similar effect as AJ does, but at the 3/4. DJW seems like MH lite and as much of a compliment as that can be, its more of a criticism. His skillset overlaps 2 or 3 other players on the team and we just dont need him this year. I think he could easily get 20+ minutes consistently next year, but I doubt he'll be around for me to cash in on that prediction. I hope he stays, because I think he can probably be a better overall version of Hill, but right now he seems destine for greener pastures.
WRT DJW, he's in a really difficult situation. I dont know if Groce would ever play him at the 2 or 4 for more than a minute or two, but if he's just a 3 in Groce's eyes, his minutes are gonna stay at 0. Kipper brings a similar effect as AJ does, but at the 3/4. DJW seems like MH lite and as much of a compliment as that can be, its more of a criticism. His skillset overlaps 2 or 3 other players on the team and we just dont need him this year. I think he could easily get 20+ minutes consistently next year, but I doubt he'll be around for me to cash in on that prediction. I hope he stays, because I think he can probably be a better overall version of Hill, but right now he seems destine for greener pastures.
Tracy is not the same player and not all of this can be explained by better Big Ten competition. He was hitting open and guarded shots and now he is missing when open. TJL is our best option and is the future. The announcer said it best yesterday, he has intagibles that are sometimes missed by metrics. He handles the PG position the best.
Amen. If Smith or Frasier replace him in the starting line-up, I will be very comfortable going forward. At this point he is by far our best pg. I even like his pesky defense although he has problems against bigger guards.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
Speaking of substitution patterns -- At one point they took Malcolm, JCL, Maverick and TJL all out of the game at the same time. Almost as if by magic, we couldn't score, and they cut the lead from 16 to 9, I think. Well of COURSE they did -- you just took all of the guys with offensive skills (aside from Finke on occasion) out of the game! They put two back in at the next timeout and we were magically able to extend the lead again.
This stuff is obvious to fans. How does the coaching staff continue to miss or ignore it?
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
Yeah, because TJL was exhausted. I love that he RUNS the ball up the court, but there were a lot of back and forth trips in the opening 3 minutes without any out of bounds or other stoppages. I recall thinking "He looks tired!" I wanted him to stay in, but I even wonder if he told coach "I need a sub!"
Abrams issues are related to unrealistic fan expectations before the season.
"Don't get me wrong - in an ideal world, Tracy keeps shooting the ball well, we make the tournament, Groce somehow still gets fired, Tom Crean poops his pants on live television, and everyone goes home happy. But until then, I will haunt your TA-optimism for all of eternity."
"You can't assume that by burying some wide-open 3s against SEMO and Detroit, Tracy is all of the sudden a 3pt threat."
"People hopping on the "Tracy is shooting 50% from 3, he's so much better now, he should be our SG, etc." bandwagon might be optimistic."
-ILCommenter, Nov. 30.
Tracy Abrams 3pt % in B1G play: .077
cc: Newman, FiveStar, FeelYourPaign
"You can't assume that by burying some wide-open 3s against SEMO and Detroit, Tracy is all of the sudden a 3pt threat."
"People hopping on the "Tracy is shooting 50% from 3, he's so much better now, he should be our SG, etc." bandwagon might be optimistic."
-ILCommenter, Nov. 30.
Tracy Abrams 3pt % in B1G play: .077
cc: Newman, FiveStar, FeelYourPaign
I see a guy who is a career 31% shooter from the field with an awkward looking shooting style. Maybe at best average defensively, and hasn't shown the ability to create his own shot. Looks to be a good teammate, but barring significant injuries/transfers, I don't see him ever being much of a contributor. Especially if next year's recruiting class remains intact.
Deleted member 8632
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If your point guard needs a sub 3 minutes into a game then your conditioning coach isn't doing his job.
Iowa plays a ton of guys. I think (hope) all the subbing was to make sure our best bodies were fresh for the final 6 minutes.
Illiniwek06
- N of I-80
That was fun. I think Groce went with Tate, Abrams, Kip, Leron, and Finke for that stretch. :huh:
I get we dont have Curry riding our bench but this is all relative. How many shot attempts is he even averaging a game? Maybe averaging 2? His shooting motion is no worse than Tracy's and really I think Hill's is a little funky--but it works. He can and will hit threes. And he has shown a better ability to drive and play near the basket than JCL. Hes got more quickness than Abrams and he plays with one of the highest motors on the team.
If JCL and Abrams were lighting it up at the 2, I would agree with you completely. TBH he's never going to be a star on this team, we have too many wings and bigger guards for him to ever hope to average more than 10 or 15 minutes a game. All I'm saying is his skills are a good change of pace for this team at the 2. He isn't gonna set the world on fire, but he's an asset we are wasting completely.
Watching JCL take another awkward shotfrom the freethrow line extended made me wonder: is part of the current system over-emphasison individuals taking shots from certain locations, rather than taking shots inrhythm? All things being equal, I certainlywould like to have the players take the shots from the locations where theyhave the most success. But one of thethings that needs to be equal is the quality of the shot, and whether it’s “inrhythm.” Against a bad defense, youmight be able to get a shot in rhythm from anywhere, so taking your shots fromthe optimal locations should bring better-than-normal results against those baddefenses. But against a good defense, it’sgoing to be harder to get shots in rhythm. And a really good defense will know where the preferred spots are, andguard those even tighter, meaning you’re almost never going to get a shot in rhythmfrom those preferred locations. If theteam is passing on (or not ready to take) shots in rhythm from other locations,then you’re going to have a bad to abysmal performance against that good defense.
Is that part of our problem against good defenses?
Is that part of our problem against good defenses?
Smultronstallet
- Urbana, IL
Will there be a replay of this game on BTN? I wasn't able to watch most of the game live.
This. It was what I was thinking when it happened. I think he could have waited a bit longer but he emphasized keeping guys fresh and matching Iowa's deep rotation.
haasi
- New York
Don't think so. He was a different player early on. Fan expectations don't explain why his open jumpers were falling and then suddenly started missing. There have been allusions to his injuries finally getting the better of him. Can only be explained by reinjury (no evidence that's the case) or fatigue related to his long absence and injuries.
I totally agree, and would like to add that his metrics are great as well. I'm afraid that quote implies his metrics aren't good.
Here are Tejon's team rankings.
Efficiency Rate - 4th
True Shooting % - 4th (virtually tied for 3rd with Malcolm)
Effective FG % - 3rd
Production - 5th
Assist % - 1st (By a wide margin, and 3 x Tracy's Assist %)
Steal % - 1st
TOV % - 10th
Win Shares / 40 Mins - 4th
His TOV% his poor, only Tate and DJ have a higher TOV%. Otherwise, he is clearly one of the teams most productive players, and deserves solid starters minutes. Especially, considering he is ranked higher than both Tracy and Tate in every single statistic mentioned except TOV%.
Should be able to watch it on btn2go.com
There's actually a really insightful discussion on the subbing patterns going on in the Penn St pregame thread. I'm willing to consider the idea that they helped rather than hurt last night.
haasi
- New York
Believe Dustin Ford has some role in in game subs. Not sure how much is him and how much is Groce.
Deleted member 11241
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Since I have been home sick with the flu, I thought I would re-watch the game and keep track of the scoring when TJL was out of the game. I included the game time that was missed, score when he left game, subsequent run that was made, score when he returned
(16:55 - 13:51) - Up 10-0, Iowa outscored us 4-2 (12-4)
(9:09 - 7:18) - Up 22-11, We outscored Iowa 7-2 (29-13)
(4:27 - 2:33) - Up 34-17, Iowa outscored us 4-2 (36-21)
(15:50 - 12:58) - Up 47-31, Iowa outscored us 8-3 (50-39)
(8:51 - 5:13) - Up 59-43, Iowa outscored us 10-6 (65-53)
So, overall, they outscored us 28-20 for the game with TJL on the bench, or a +8. But we were at a +1 in the first half though. That would mean we were overall a +20 with him on the court. I think it's also worth noting that when he came back in at the 5:13 mark in the 2nd, we were up 12 and extended to 14 before they came back and brought it to within 9 at 3:20. So he was on the court during that time
(16:55 - 13:51) - Up 10-0, Iowa outscored us 4-2 (12-4)
(9:09 - 7:18) - Up 22-11, We outscored Iowa 7-2 (29-13)
(4:27 - 2:33) - Up 34-17, Iowa outscored us 4-2 (36-21)
(15:50 - 12:58) - Up 47-31, Iowa outscored us 8-3 (50-39)
(8:51 - 5:13) - Up 59-43, Iowa outscored us 10-6 (65-53)
So, overall, they outscored us 28-20 for the game with TJL on the bench, or a +8. But we were at a +1 in the first half though. That would mean we were overall a +20 with him on the court. I think it's also worth noting that when he came back in at the 5:13 mark in the 2nd, we were up 12 and extended to 14 before they came back and brought it to within 9 at 3:20. So he was on the court during that time
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