Illinois #8 in 2/9 AP Poll
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Putting aside what "should" happen, it will be really interesting to see what happens with our ranking if we are able to win out until the Michigan game. It was pretty difficult not to have us jump from #11 to #5 after we were winning road games vs. top 5 teams and looking great while doing it. How will the pollsters view us winning home games vs. Wisconsin and Indiana? Or a 2-0 West Coast trip vs. USC and UCLA? None of those teams is ranked or even receiving votes, though I suspect winning at UCLA would be the single most impressive result to outsiders.
In a scenario where we win the next four - not getting greedy here, just trying to analyze a hypothetical - I think our rank when Michigan comes to town will depend on one main thing, right or wrong:
How many teams in our "neighborhood" have 4+ losses? As others have pointed out, we are the highest ranked team with 4 losses right now. Will a third loss from Nebraska, UConn, ISU, Duke, Houston, etc. allow us to get back even with any of them? Will a surging 5-loss Kansas team jump us with the Arizona win?
It wouldn't surprise me to see a 2-week period where it feels like we are "back on track" but see almost no upward movement in the polls unless there are some big upsets.
In a scenario where we win the next four - not getting greedy here, just trying to analyze a hypothetical - I think our rank when Michigan comes to town will depend on one main thing, right or wrong:
How many teams in our "neighborhood" have 4+ losses? As others have pointed out, we are the highest ranked team with 4 losses right now. Will a third loss from Nebraska, UConn, ISU, Duke, Houston, etc. allow us to get back even with any of them? Will a surging 5-loss Kansas team jump us with the Arizona win?
It wouldn't surprise me to see a 2-week period where it feels like we are "back on track" but see almost no upward movement in the polls unless there are some big upsets.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Look at how loaded that B12 schedule is to close the year. Everyone about to get their reckoning (we have 1 more Q1A left; maybe UCLA also).
I think this has been pointed out before, but Illinois has played more Q1A games than any team in the country with 9.
Duke, Kansas, Arkansas have played 8. Michigan 4, Arizona 5, Iowa St 2, Houston 4, UConn 6, Nebraska 6, Florida 5, Michigan St 5.
Certainly this has to matter somewhat. How much? No idea, but its definitely a valid discussion point, I think.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Oh, I think it should matter A LOT, and I personally think the fact we have 4 losses should matter way less to the pollsters ... especially since 3 of those 4 losses happened before mid-December! I'm just pessimistic they will see it that way.
Florida would say the same thing. Three loses in Nov/Dec to Arizona, UConn. and Duke.
Voters in general are not intelligent or objective. The facts are we are ranked higher by all actual objective metrics. They need to abolish the AP poll. Who cares what some random journalist in Wyoming says. There are a ton of metrics and ranking systems - combine them all and come up with a composite rating which does exist already. Different ways to get there.
Losses do NOT matter without context. So instead of playing Alabama UConn etc we should just play Miami of Ohio’s schedule. Easily rack up random nonsense wins, 4 of which don’t even count for the tournament because they weren’t D1
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