Illinois 82, Kansas 75 (Exhibition) Postgame

Fighter of the Nightman · Oct 31, 2023

While this game "doesn't count," I don't think we should believe for one minute that this won't sort of "prime" the pollsters for how they will react to upcoming results from Illinois, Kansas, MSU, Tennessee, etc. Exhibition or not, those games were played to win, and it showed what teams can do. Considering our upcoming schedule and that we are ranked #25...

--- Week 1 (still using preseason rankings ---
vs. Eastern Illinois
vs. Oakland
--- Week 2 ---
vs. #5 Marquette
vs. Valparaiso
vs. Southern
--- Week 3 ---
vs. Western Illinois

I know don't some care about rankings, so feel free to tune out here. However, for those who do ... I think beating Kansas, even in an exhibition game, primes pollsters to be "ready" to either (A) skyrocket us if we can beat Marquette or (B) not drop us too far if we lose to Marquette but look decent doing it. And I think that "goodwill" or whatever is because we upset Kansas. If we start 5-0, I will practically guarantee you that - obviously contingent on some other results around the college basketball landscape - we would be in the top 15 when Western Illinois comes to town. That is up nearly 10 spots, and I don't think beating Marquette alone would do it.

At the VERY worst, it is great publicity and gets our own (more casual) fans excited! What an awesome way to start the (pre-)season!

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

Illinifrank67 said:
Seeing a lot of people comment on the amount of layups we gave up. I think you all are missing two important pieces.

1) That’s how basketball is played now. The reality is it’s much better to give up layups than open 3’s. (Kofi is playing overseas and wasn’t a top 10 draft pick for a reason.) And we did a REALLY good job running Kansas off the three point line. The commentary that they are a bad three point shooting team is ridiculous. We locked them down from three. What we saw was good defense, not a poor shooting opponent.

2) We don’t give up that many layups against anyone not named Kansas. They might be the only team we see this year outside of the tourney with comparable length and athleticism. Re-watch the Ottowa game. Every layup they took got swatted into to bleachers. Our length is going to bail us out of a lot of those situations this year.

Gonna disagree with you on point 1. I think we did do a really solid job of running them off the line, but that team truly can't shoot. Took a look at the Kansas boards and a very common concern going around those threads is the glaring lack of shooting. You could make a case Hunter Dickinson is their best 3 point shooter.

mydosburns · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
Gonna disagree with you on point 1. I think we did do a really solid job of running them off the line, but that team truly can't shoot. Took a look at the Kansas boards and a very common concern going around those threads is the glaring lack of shooting. You could make a case Hunter Dickinson is their best 3 point shooter.

I think they are missing Johnny Furphy, which was supposed to be one of their stretch the floor shooters. Nick Timberlake played, but he looked pretty mid. I think our length really bothered him.

IllinialuminAZ · Oct 31, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
While this game "doesn't count," I don't think we should believe for one minute that this won't sort of "prime" the pollsters for how they will react to upcoming results from Illinois, Kansas, MSU, Tennessee, etc. Exhibition or not, those games were played to win, and it showed what teams can do. Considering our upcoming schedule and that we are ranked #25...

--- Week 1 (still using preseason rankings ---
vs. Eastern Illinois
vs. Oakland
--- Week 2 ---
vs. #5 Marquette
vs. Valparaiso
vs. Southern
--- Week 3 ---
vs. Western Illinois

I know don't some care about rankings, so feel free to tune out here. However, for those who do ... I think beating Kansas, even in an exhibition game, primes pollsters to be "ready" to either (A) skyrocket us if we can beat Marquette or (B) not drop us too far if we lose to Marquette but look decent doing it. And I think that "goodwill" or whatever is because we upset Kansas. If we start 5-0, I will practically guarantee you that - obviously contingent on some other results around the college basketball landscape - we would be in the top 15 when Western Illinois comes to town. That is up nearly 10 spots, and I don't think beating Marquette alone would do it.

At the VERY worst, it is great publicity and gets our own (more casual) fans excited! What an awesome way to start the (pre-)season!

I mean, at this point, pollsters have literally guessed on where to rank teams based on roster construction. At least these games are a data point. I don't really see how it can't influence their opinions on these teams, which is really all the rankings are, in the next poll. Obviously, in a month, these games won't mean anything.

Battle89 · Oct 31, 2023

GrayGhost77 said:
Oh my. Sounds like a risque horror movie. Or a certain time of the month...

I just assumed he was talking about Hunter

Emerson Bigguns · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
Gonna disagree with you on point 1. I think we did do a really solid job of running them off the line, but that team truly can't shoot. Took a look at the Kansas boards and a very common concern going around those threads is the glaring lack of shooting. You could make a case Hunter Dickinson is their best 3 point shooter.

Timberlake shot 41% on 221 chances last season. (That's not just shooting, that's a sniper... 13th best % in Div 1.) Harris shot over 40% last season and took more 3's than Hunter.
3 of the 6 guys they play consistently hit at a 40%+ clip. Maybe they don't have as many shooters as Kansas is used to having, but if they can't shoot, what would you say about our squad?

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

Emerson Bigguns said:
Timberlake shot 41% on 221 chances last season. (That's not just shooting, that's a sniper... 13th best % in Div 1.) Harris shot over 40% last season and took more 3's than Hunter.
3 of the 6 guys they play consistently hit at a 40%+ clip. Maybe they don't have as many shooters as Kansas is used to having, but if they can't shoot, what would you say about our squad?

Fair points. If they approach those percentages/attempts again I'll eat my words. They have a Hunter Dickinson problem now.

NarrowJ · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
Fair points. If they approach those percentages/attempts again I'll eat my words. They have a Hunter Dickinson problem now.

Wait a minute... so you think the collective 500ish attempts across an entire season for those guys was the fluke versus what you saw in a single game on Sunday?

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
Wait a minute... so you think the collective 500ish attempts across an entire season for those guys was the fluke versus what you saw in a single game on Sunday?

No, I don't. They may very well approach those percentages and attempts again and as I pointed out, I'll eat my words if they do. But having a guy like HD in the middle changes things. That's a totally new variable for them.

NarrowJ · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
No, I don't. They may very well approach those percentages and attempts again and as I pointed out, I'll eat my words if they do. But having a guy like HD in the middle changes things. That's a totally new variable for them.

Yep, having that preseason All-American in the middle of the floor should help open up that 3 point shot.

I'd go ahead and eat your words now, because what you stated was false (based on a large amount of existing data).

pruman91 · Oct 31, 2023

Well , it's 2 days after the fact of us beating the # 1 ranked team in the AP pre season poll and some here are making the game out as we lost or we have a multitude of weakness' that will prevent us from winning another game this season.........I am exaggerating that premise , but good Ancient , sounds like some peeps will never be satisfied with our results on the court......

I even read one post that brought up the home court advantage and that we really lost the game.........at least that's how I read it..........

We are a very athletic and loaded team .....I'm sure our victory made a lot of coaches in the CBB world sit up and take notice of us.......if they didn't then that's their fault , not our's............Remember everyone , that was OUR second game with an influx of new players that have bought into the everyday guys point of view and made it clear to me that the win meant more than individual stats .....totally different than some of the players we had last year that are NOT on this years team.....

Trying to quantify the good and bad traits of this team is like the old " finding a needle in a haystack " scenario.........

We are good......We could be VERY VERY good..............that's why you practice and then play the games........Some of the posters here might want to temper their criticisms for now.........It would behoove everyone to wait for more game results before opening the floodgates on all the things wrong with this years team............JMHO , but I think some posts here have been foolish and juvenile , especially after our win against THE # 1 RANKED TEAM IN THE COUNTRY......How about enjoying the victory and holding off on all the armchair observations until you have more proof of our liabilities and then submit them here.....

I , for one , am still smiling from ear to ear over our victory and will continue to smile till the day arrives for me to be crying about our difficulties.................

JMHO.........................................

aaeismacgychel · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
Yep, having that preseason All-American in the middle of the floor should help open up that 3 point shot.

I'd go ahead and eat your words now, because what you stated was false (based on a large amount of existing data).

I'm somewhat in the middle on this one as you'd think so, but in reality, Michigan with Dickinson shot worse from three as their offense started revolving around him. He does well at spacing the floor for himself, but I'm not sure he does all that good of a job at opening others up from behind the arc. It'll be interesting to see, but my gut feeling is that Kansas will be a worse 3pt shooting team than their numbers on paper would suggest. That said, yeah, saying their guards can't shoot is a fallacy.

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
Yep, having that preseason All-American in the middle of the floor should help open up that 3 point shot.

Hey, that may be the case. You could very well be right...just don't be surprised if that narrative doesn't play out. We're talking about a particularly challenging prima donna who is likely going to demand 15+ shots a game. If for whatever reason Kansas continues to not shoot particularly well, you can expect that kid to to not only publicly throw his teammates under the bus like he did at Michigan, but demand the ball even more.

jjv0004 · Oct 31, 2023

After watching Illinois dismantle the potential number 1 team in the country, I am predicting for the 2nd year in a row that we go undefeated. I was a little off last year but I feel good about this prediction.

foby · Oct 31, 2023

pruman91 said:
Well , it's 2 days after the fact of us beating the # 1 ranked team in the AP pre season poll and some here are making the game out as we lost or we have a multitude of weakness' that will prevent us from winning another game this season.........I am exaggerating that premise , but good Ancient , sounds like some peeps will never be satisfied with our results on the court......

I even read one post that brought up the home court advantage and that we really lost the game.........at least that's how I read it..........

We are a very athletic and loaded team .....I'm sure our victory made a lot of coaches in the CBB world sit up and take notice of us.......if they didn't then that's their fault , not our's............Remember everyone , that was OUR second game with an influx of new players that have bought into the everyday guys point of view and made it clear to me that the win meant more than individual stats .....totally different than some of the players we had last year that are NOT on this years team.....

Trying to quantify the good and bad traits of this team is like the old " finding a needle in a haystack " scenario.........

We are good......We could be VERY VERY good..............that's why you practice and then play the games........Some of the posters here might want to temper their criticisms for now.........It would behoove everyone to wait for more game results before opening the floodgates on all the things wrong with this years team............JMHO , but I think some posts here have been foolish and juvenile , especially after our win against THE # 1 RANKED TEAM IN THE COUNTRY......How about enjoying the victory and holding off on all the armchair observations until you have more proof of our liabilities and then submit them here.....

I , for one , am still smiling from ear to ear over our victory and will continue to smile till the day arrives for me to be crying about our difficulties.................

JMHO.........................................

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
Yep, having that preseason All-American in the middle of the floor should help open up that 3 point shot.

I'd go ahead and eat your words now, because what you stated was false (based on a large amount of existing data).

Let me make myself clear - On paper, Kansas has guys who can shoot. To your point, the existing data shows that. And me previously stating the team "can't shoot" was not the correct use of words. This is what I'm getting at: Having those shooters doesn't necessarily mean the 2023/24 Kansas squad will be a good shooting team. It's a fair statement to say a good portion of their offense is likely going to go through Hunter, Mccular, KJ Adams & Elmarko Jackson. Collectively, shooting isn't a strength of that group. What happens if this plays out and opposing defenses sag & run off the rest of their guys who can shoot?

drsmitty74 · Oct 31, 2023

pruman91 said:
Well , it's 2 days after the fact of us beating the # 1 ranked team in the AP pre season poll and some here are making the game out as we lost or we have a multitude of weakness' that will prevent us from winning another game this season.........I am exaggerating that premise , but good Ancient , sounds like some peeps will never be satisfied with our results on the court......

I even read one post that brought up the home court advantage and that we really lost the game.........at least that's how I read it..........

We are a very athletic and loaded team .....I'm sure our victory made a lot of coaches in the CBB world sit up and take notice of us.......if they didn't then that's their fault , not our's............Remember everyone , that was OUR second game with an influx of new players that have bought into the everyday guys point of view and made it clear to me that the win meant more than individual stats .....totally different than some of the players we had last year that are NOT on this years team.....

Trying to quantify the good and bad traits of this team is like the old " finding a needle in a haystack " scenario.........

We are good......We could be VERY VERY good..............that's why you practice and then play the games........Some of the posters here might want to temper their criticisms for now.........It would behoove everyone to wait for more game results before opening the floodgates on all the things wrong with this years team............JMHO , but I think some posts here have been foolish and juvenile , especially after our win against THE # 1 RANKED TEAM IN THE COUNTRY......How about enjoying the victory and holding off on all the armchair observations until you have more proof of our liabilities and then submit them here.....

I , for one , am still smiling from ear to ear over our victory and will continue to smile till the day arrives for me to be crying about our difficulties.................

JMHO.........................................

Amen brother Pru! PREACH!

NarrowJ · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
Let me make myself clear - On paper, Kansas has guys who can shoot. To your point, the existing data shows that. And me previously stating the team "can't shoot" was not the correct use of words. This is what I'm getting at: Having those shooters doesn't necessarily mean the 2023/24 Kansas squad will be a good shooting team. It's a fair statement to say a good portion of their offense is likely going to go through Hunter, Mccular, KJ Adams & Elmarko Jackson. Collectively, shooting isn't a strength of that group. What happens if this plays out and opposing defenses sag & run off the rest of their guys who can shoot?

You should include Harris there, who is their PG and may be the best one in the entire country and shot 41% from three last year.

You included Hunter who shot 42% from three last year.

No idea on Elmarko Jackson, but he was a McDonald's All-American. Surely he can shoot it a tad?

McCullar looks like a fine shooter.

Adams doesn't shoot threes and doesn't need to.

Timberlake, the transfer, is a deadeye sniper.

This is silly.

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
You should include Harris there, who is their PG and may be the best one in the entire country and shot 41% from three last year.

You included Hunter who shot 42% from three last year.

No idea on Elmarko Jackson, but he was a McDonald's All-American. Surely he can shoot it a tad?

McCullar looks like a fine shooter.

Adams doesn't shoot threes and doesn't need to.

Timberlake, the transfer, is a deadeye sniper.

This is silly.

It's not silly. Dajuan Harris can certainly shoot. But it's not like he's a volume shooter, he's averaged <1.5 attempts per game for his career. The same thing can be said about Hunter - he can definitely shoot, but he averages 1.3 attempts per game. We're going to have to agree to disagree on McCullar being a "fine shooter", if you consider a career 29% shooter on 2.3 attempts per game "fine shooting". Just because Elmarko Jackson was a McDonald's All-American doesn't mean he's a capable shooter lol. In fact, the knock on him coming out of high school is that his jump shot needs work. Timberlake is definitely a shooter and that will be circled on every scouting report, I'm sure. It's not silly at all to say this years Kansas team may not be a good shooting team, especially after we just saw them go 3-12, albeit 1 exhibition game. Time will tell.

NarrowJ · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
It's not silly. Dajuan Harris can certainly shoot. But it's not like he's a volume shooter, he's averaged <1.5 attempts per game for his career. The same thing can be said about Hunter - he can definitely shoot, but he averages 1.3 attempts per game. We're going to have to agree to disagree on McCullar being a "fine shooter", if you consider a career 29% shooter on 2.3 attempts per game "fine shooting". Just because Elmarko Jackson was a McDonald's All-American doesn't mean he's a capable shooter lol. In fact, the knock on him coming out of high school is that his jump shot needs work. Timberlake is definitely a shooter and that will be circled on every scouting report, I'm sure. It's not silly at all to say this years Kansas team may not be a good shooting team, especially after we just saw them go 3-12, albeit 1 exhibition game. Time will tell.

You're putting a lot of stock into this "they shot 3 of 12" when we have 50 times that amount of data that says their outside shooting is a strength.

By your method, McCullar shot 2 of 3 last night so at 67% he is likely the best shooter on the planet.

I guess I'll wait to see what percentage Steph Curry shoots this year, jury's still out on him.

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
You're putting a lot of stock into this "they shot 3 of 12" when we have 50 times that amount of data that says their outside shooting is a strength.

I guess I'll wait to see what percentage Steph Curry shoots this year, jury's still out on him.

Nah, it's just one game. But I'll say this - it's not very common for that team to take 12 attempts per game (they averaged over 20 last year), and all this previous data doesn't apply to the 23/24 squad as much as you're trying to make it seem. You know what this Kansas team doesn't have anymore? Jalen Wilson & Gradey Dick - two guys who took 60% (!) of ALL their 3-point shots last year. The guy right behind them in terms of total attempts was Mccular, who shot 29%. Now I'm sure Timberlake will help, but at the same time, you add in Hunter Dickinson - that changes everything about that offense because you can reasonably infer ~>13ish of his shot attempts per game are going to be inside the arc. Same thing for KJ Adams, Bill is going to him often. This team is different than previous Kansas teams and may very well not be a good shooting team. That's all I'm saying.

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
You're putting a lot of stock into this "they shot 3 of 12" when we have 50 times that amount of data that says their outside shooting is a strength.

By your method, McCullar shot 2 of 3 last night so at 67% he is likely the best shooter on the planet.

I guess I'll wait to see what percentage Steph Curry shoots this year, jury's still out on him.

NarrowJ · Oct 31, 2023

Illiniguy13 said:
But I'll say this - it's not very common for that team to take 12 attempts per game (they averaged over 20 last year)

As 0440 pointed out, our game plan was to run them off the 3 point line. The result was a good amount of layups in exchange for less 3 point attempts.

There's a reason we wanted to take away the 3 point shot. What could that reason be? It's not because they are bad at making them.

Illiniguy13 · Oct 31, 2023

NarrowJ said:
As 0440 pointed out, our game plan was to run them off the 3 point line. The result was a good amount of layups in exchange for less 3 point attempts.

There's a reason we wanted to take away the 3 point shot. What could that reason be? It's not because they are bad at making them.

It also isn't necessarily because they are good at making them, either. There a few potential factors. If I were to guess, I'd say it's because our best chance at winning the game was a scenario in which we were able to take away the 3 and influence Kansas to go to HD over and over - ask any Michigan fan and they know what I'm talking about. He took 23 shots and got his, he's individually super productive, but that has not been the best model for wins over the course of that kids career. A scenario in which Kansas was hitting outside shots AND Hunter was getting his (even on fewer attempts) would be a death sentence.

GallopingGhost · Oct 31, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
While this game "doesn't count," I don't think we should believe for one minute that this won't sort of "prime" the pollsters for how they will react to upcoming results from Illinois, Kansas, MSU, Tennessee, etc. Exhibition or not, those games were played to win, and it showed what teams can do. Considering our upcoming schedule and that we are ranked #25...

--- Week 1 (still using preseason rankings ---
vs. Eastern Illinois
vs. Oakland
--- Week 2 ---
vs. #5 Marquette
vs. Valparaiso
vs. Southern
--- Week 3 ---
vs. Western Illinois

I know don't some care about rankings, so feel free to tune out here. However, for those who do ... I think beating Kansas, even in an exhibition game, primes pollsters to be "ready" to either (A) skyrocket us if we can beat Marquette or (B) not drop us too far if we lose to Marquette but look decent doing it. And I think that "goodwill" or whatever is because we upset Kansas. If we start 5-0, I will practically guarantee you that - obviously contingent on some other results around the college basketball landscape - we would be in the top 15 when Western Illinois comes to town. That is up nearly 10 spots, and I don't think beating Marquette alone would do it.

At the VERY worst, it is great publicity and gets our own (more casual) fans excited! What an awesome way to start the (pre-)season!

Absolutely on point, Dayman.

I think unless we get blown out 18+ points to marquwtte we will only see our stock and rank tick up in November. December relies more on how we play those games.