Illinois 83, Duke 68 Postgame

Retro62 said:

And I believe if he had assumed that starting role it would have made a big difference in his pro career.

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This is pretty much it. Frank was buried on the bench during his rookie year. Same for the beginning of his sophomore year (2003-4) as he sat behind Howard Eisley and an aging Charlie Ward. With the team going nowhere, Don Chaney gave Frank real minutes one night for seemingly no particular reason. But Frank gave the team some life and with the other weak PG options, he made it to the regular rotation the next night.

Out of nowhere, he was FRANK. Getting about 25 minutes a night, scoring a bunch, bringing life and pizazz to a previously lifeless squad. The Knicks started not just winning, but winning by 20-plus a few games in a row. In the third or fourth game of this run, Mike Breen exclaimed, "Frank Williams having a career night!" and Walt Frazier responded, "I feel like we're saying that every night!" You could see that maybe Frank couldn't be a high-level starting NBA PG, but someone who could get real minutes off the bench and give a team something special.

Just as suddenly, Frank got hurt and Isiah Thomas traded for Marbury. It was over for Frank and soon Don Chaney. The Knicks let him go at the end of the season. He had a brief moment with the Bulls that went absolutely nowhere and that was it.

This game log tells the story.

I hate Duke as much as others, but I think Coach K's comments are being taken a little out of context -
He finished the statement with "Illinois killed us, we're not that good" His answer attacks the NCAA more than anything and didn't really come off as an excuse...

I know it's hard to complain about the refs after a blowout win, but they were horrible. I watched the tape this morning and there were a lot of fouls missed against Illinois at the rim, and I've never seen an officiating crew not know when a team is in the one and one. If this would have been close, those missed calls would have mattered. No wonder it's tough to beat Duke on their home court.

Getting a good laugh out of some of the negative posts here. No judgements, you know, you do you -- I'm one of the most negative folks I know and I understand our scars from the last 15 years. But we just beat a team that's lost out of conference at home 11 times in 41 years or something like that, and we throttled them from the opening tip to the final horn. Folks say that Duke isn't as good as they usually are, and we're not as good as we think we are. I'm no mathematician, but I think you cancel those things on either side of the equation and we still won by 15 at Duke, right?

For once, I think that I'm gonna be satisfied here and leave it at that.

A couple of other notes -- we got 'beat' on the boards but it wasn't a bad performance. Duke rebounded 26% of their misses. League-wide that number averages 28%, and has averaged 28% for a while now. (For further context, Baylor absolutely buggy-whipped us on the glass and they got 40% of their misses.) Given that they started 6-9, 6-9 and 7-0 I'm not going to fault our guys for performing better than average in that category. I'm not thrilled by our performance on the offensive boards, but if Duke wants to make the choice to send five guys to the glass and give up on a transition game I'll take that every day and twice on Sundays. You'd think a coaching mastermind like K would want to find ways to help this particular team score, but whatever.

As for Curbelo, I think that if you put a leash on him you're missing the point of having him on your team. He had a couple of howlers last night, but he's playing in his fifth college game, on the road, against top-tier competition, and under really adverse circumstances due to the pandemic. In a normal year we'd have three exhibitions on the schedule, and game 5 would be against Coastal Western Dakota A & Tech or something. In spite of all that, he made what is by most accounts a good and highly physical defensive team look absolutely silly on multiple occasions. I'm positively giddy. And the mistakes he did make were often because he wasn't attacking -- he stood still and allowed the double-team to come. (You could say that about our performance against the press generally.) Let the kid play it his way. He'll eventually figure out what it takes to play against a bunch of guys that are as good as he is night in and night out. If I'm worried about anyone in the turnover department, it's Trent Frazier, who's a four-year starter and should absolutely be stronger with the ball.

Finally, I loved the ace of spades from Ayo at the end. That's the Jordan mentality, and a very good sign for the rest of the season.

Stats wrap-up from the game!

Last night was really similar to our Baylor game in that our opponent had way more "true" scoring opportunities (field goal and free throw attempts) than we did. In fact, the spread was even worse than against Baylor; Duke had 17 more FG attempts than us (although we had 8 more FTs)

Obviously, that's about the only way the games were similar. Against Baylor, we scored just about as many points as they did per shot, on average. Against Duke? Each one of our shots was worth almost a half point more than each one of theirs.

That is a really, really big difference. Our average tempo last season was 66 possessions per game -- if we outscore our opponents by this kind of margin shot-for-shot, that's a 30 point differential. The only reason this wasn't a 30-point win is because of how many times we turned the ball over instead of getting a shot up or drawing a foul.

This was a great win, but also the second game in a row against a top opponent where we squandered double-digit scoring opportunities. The more we can clean that up (and I think it'll happen as the team gels, especially with two frosh playing big minutes), the better position we'll be in when we have an inevitable cold shooting night against a tough opponent.

dgcrow said:

Great win! And the Big 10 goes 6-1 against the ACC tonight.

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Should have been 7-0. Purdon't choked.

Good point from @dbeverly26 above. The OR difference looks particularly bad in this format, but keep in mind that we only missed 21 FGs (and maybe a reboundable second FT or two), while Duke missed 40. The length of the red bar will always be a good intuitive measure of how bad the turnover problem was, on a percentage basis, because any possession can end in a turnover. Offensive rebounds, however, are only possible after a miss, so the length of the purple bar here doesn't directly correlate to offensive rebounding efficiency, which is really what you can control.

Following that logic, I suppose you'd expect to see a correlation between a higher points-per-scoring-opportunity value and a worse OR/TO spread, which is something I'll try to look at later on.

Great win for our program. Really nice being relevant again. Had we finished better around the rim (or gotten the fouls called) and eliminate some of those unforced turnovers it would have been a 25 - 30 point game. This team has the feel of a special year.

I dislike Duke, but for whatever reason I've never held the same disdain for Coach Ratface that I hold for some other coaches. Maybe it's because I played a lot of Coach K basketball on Nintendo back in the day. Anyway, I thought he showed a decent shred of humanity when AceWolf went down - the Rat was trying to help the Wolf. There are other coaches that wouldn't have done this.

The game against IA will be a tremendous game. There game against UNC was a beat down. They were throwing up threes all night. Garza will be a load. Kofi will probably have 2 fouls before the first tv timeout. But do not lose sight of our win against Duke. Awesome win and getting national attention will help.

eleets2144 said:

I hate Duke as much as others, but I think Coach K's comments are being taken a little out of context -

He finished the statement with "Illinois killed us, we're not that good" His answer attacks the NCAA more than anything and didn't really come off as an excuse...

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Not out of context. Of course he knew he’d get roasted for not acknowledging the elephant in the room (that they just got rocked).

I think think the bigger criticism of him is that his mouth would be shut if he had beaten us and MSU and they we’re ranked #3.

he obviously has influence. Why not be vocal at the start of the season?

He realizes he’s in for a down year and wants to start the campaign to put an asterisk next to this season.

IllinistuckinGopherland said:

Barely. No question Deron has had the best pro career of any post-Flying Illini. Not really anyone close.

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Derek Harper maybe. Not often a name that comes up with the program. Was there some falling out between Harper and the U? Seems like the program would have wanted to play up his NBA career a bit more or have had him around over the years.

CalIllini66 said:

We must be about the same age. I became a lifelong Illini fan starting in the '50s watching those guys, Bogie Redman and others.

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My first game at Assembly Hall when I was about 8 or so - a year or 2 after Dave Downey graduated. Bogie Redman, Tal Brody, Skip Thoren, Don Freeman. Wow.

ChocolateThunder said:

Bilas is a pretty intelligent and engaging announcer. He was right when he suggested the Big 10 conference season is going to be brutal. Iowa looked "scary good."

How many loses will the eventual Big Ten championship team have?

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I'm guessing four, maybe five.

WeWillWhen said:

Frank and Dee are the two most exciting ball handlers I’ve seen for the Illini in 40 years of watching. Curbelo has shown potential of joining them if he can learn to limit turnovers. Kid can be special.

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I would add Bruce Douglas to that list.

Retro62 said:

I saw this On campus when it came out...it was the ultimate “Yeah!!!...oh” moment

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I saw it at the Co-ed, and the crowd roared at the line. Good times.

AirNeezy said:

Some takes on the game:

Man Ayo was great, played within himself, didn't seem to force things (like he was against Baylor) and it seems like every time we were getting a bit flat, he snagged a nice rebound, made a tough shot or had a great assist. Exactly what you need from your upperclassman All American.

I still don't know if we are recognizing what we have with Curbelo here. This is a true freshman point guard who has now played great, showing absolutely no fear, against two top 10 teams in a row. In his first 4 games ever. People are drooling about what he can turn into with a couple years under his belt, I'm just waiting on what he looks like by mid B1G play. Even with some of the out of control TOs, he has the ball on an absolute string and some of the dribble moves he made to get out of traps and doubles, along with his passes had my eyes popping out of my head. If I were a betting man, I'd put money on him for B1G FOY. Yeah, he's that good.

Damonte being able to hit threes consistently since the last quarter of B1G play last year is arguably the biggest reason our offense has become so potent. It wasn't long ago that teams were sagging off and daring him to shoot, clogging the lane for our driving guards. Sample size is big enough now that it's not a fluke.

Giorgi has his confidence back, if he keeps it up we are haaaaaaard to beat. We aren't dead in the water inside if Kofi gets in foul trouble.

Adam Miller is a sniper. Tighten up his handles a bit and the sky's the limit. Again, I don't think we appreciate enough how unafraid of the moment our freshmen have been. Against top ten teams. IN THEIR FIRST 4 GAMES.

Scary thing is that Kofi hasn't been playing at the level we know he can and we've still been playing awesome ball (aside from a 90 second stretch against Baylor).

It could just be the long awaited elation from being nationally relevant again and actually backing it up, but damn I really feel like the sky is the limit for this team. We're maybe only playing at 75% the level we know we can and we are still really freakin' good. Kudos to the staff for putting this team together from literally the basement, lets just keep getting better every day so we can win this chip.

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And you didn’t even mention Trent shooting 50% from three.

RoosterCockburn40 said:

Coach K isn't dumb. He knows he just got embarrassed on National TV. Why in the world would you let your players play if you think it's usafe. Coach K is a weasel and he'll do anything so save his reputation. Canceling the season while he has one of his worst teams in recent memory would save his basketball reputation.

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Shades of NC last year.

TGB said:

I know it's hard to complain about the refs after a blowout win, but they were horrible. I watched the tape this morning and there were a lot of fouls missed against Illinois at the rim, and I've never seen an officiating crew not know when a team is in the one and one. If this would have been close, those missed calls would have mattered. No wonder it's tough to beat Duke on their home court.

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You are going to have a poorly officiated game any time TV Ted is in the house.

While people are bringing up great NBA careers for former Illini, let’s not forget Eddie Johnson...long career in the league.

RE: Ayo "meh"

I think Ayo looking somewhat less than his previous self or what our naked eye might expect is the lack of pull up 12 footers that he did more of last year. There seems to be more of him trying to get to rim, which of course he did a lot last year as well. That's one observation I have from the first 5 games.

Also, in this game in particular. Ayo missed 2 extremely wide open 3's. On one of them, he took a rhythm dribble first because there was nobody even coming towards him. Maybe it's too high of a standard, but I'd expect someone of his caliber to put those down. Or at least 1 of them.

Just playing devil's advocate. I think what Ayo is doing with his assists this year is extremely good for the team. I have no bones with his game.

I would like to see a 3 pt. shot chart for AM for the year. Seems like he is deadly from the baseline but maybe not so much from farther out on the floor.

RoosterCockburn40 said:

People don't want to hear it, but Ayo didn't score like he needs to if he wants to win those awards. I agree, he had an "ehh" game that didn't live up to his expectations.

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Through the first 5 games Illinois looks very much like a Top 5 team. And despite having a very talented roster, Ayo is absolutely blowing everyone else on the team out of the water.

Ayo's averaging 22.6 Points, 8.2 Rebounds, and 6.0 Assists over the first 5 games. He's shooting 50.6% from the floor and 42.1% from 3.

Let's dig a little deeper:

1. Stats thru all games:
a. Ayo is by far our leading scorer with 22.6 points per game (A full 9.2 above our second best scorer, Miller).
b. Ayo has 8.2 rebounds per game making him our second best rebounder (just 1.2 back from Kofi).
c. Ayo is by far our best distributor with 6.0 assists per game (3.2 more than our second best, Frazier).
2. Stats per 40 MIN thru all games (for those that might think Ayo's getting more playing time which artificially boosts his stats):
a. Ayo has 27.4 pts / 40 minutes. Illinois' next best scorer is Curbelo with 23.9 pts/40 minutes.
b. Ayo has 9.9 reb / 40 minutes. Illinois' leader is Kofi with 16.8 reb / 40 min. And in 3rd is Giorgi with 8.2 reb / 40 min.
c. Ayo has 7.3 ast / 40 minutes. Illinois' next best distributor is Curbelo with 6.0 ast / 40 min.
3. Stats and Stats per 40 MIN thru last 3 games, Ohio Baylor Duke, only (for those that might think the first 2 games are artificially inflating his stats):
ai. Ayo has 21 pts. Illinois' next best scorer is Kofi with 11 pts (in last 3 games)
aii. Ayo has 22.5 pts / 40 minutes. Illinois' next best scorer is Kofi with 18.1 pts / 40 minutes (in last 3 games)
bi. Ayo has 8.3 reb. Illinois' leader is Kofi with 8.7 reb (in last 3 games)
bii. Ayo has 8.9 reb / 40 minutes. Illinois' leader is Kofi with 14.2 reb / 40 minutes and Williams has 10.4 reb / 40 minutes (in last 3 games)
ci. Ayo has 6.0 ast. Illinois' next best distributor is Frazier with 3.0 ast (in last 3 games)
cii. Ayo has 6.4 ast / 40 minutes. Illinois' next best distributor is Frazier with 3.5 ast / 40 minutes (in last 3 games)
4. In 2019-20 Ayo's stats thru the first 5 games would put him:
ai. 9th in the nation in scoring per game
aii. 8th in the nation in scoring per minute
bi. ~100th in the nation in rebounds per game
bii. >100th in the nation in rebounds per minute
ci. 24th in the nation in assists per game
cii. 19th in the nation in assists per minute

3xIllini said:

Not out of context. Of course he knew he’d get roasted for not acknowledging the elephant in the room (that they just got rocked).

I think think the bigger criticism of him is that his mouth would be shut if he had beaten us and MSU and they we’re ranked #3.

he obviously has influence. Why not be vocal at the start of the season?

He realizes he’s in for a down year and wants to start the campaign to put an asterisk next to this season.

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If Coach K is 4-0, he responds totally differently. I do believe he holds a ton of influence over college basketball and shown by being in the top headlines on espn. He knows that shutting it down for the next 2 months will kill the season.

RoosterCockburn40 said:

We beat Dook so bad Coach K doesn't even want to play anymore.

Coach K questions continuing play in pandemic

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski wonders whether college basketball should continue with the COVID-19 pandemic surging.

www.espn.com

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I saw that. It’s his worst team in many years. Coincidence?