Illinois 85, Texas 78 OT Postgame

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#476      

ChiefIllinois

C
ChiefIllinois
Hate to beat a dead horse, but I’m not too upset with the refs not overturning the Coleman goaltend.

Something’s that’s true with all video reviews across sports is the need for clear and evident reason to overturn a call, whereas you don’t need that to keep the current call.

I’d bet money he touched it before it hit the glass, but it felt like a literal frame between touch and backboard hit. In my opinion on my 65 inch tv it was clear, but it would’ve been a hell of a call to overturn on that.

Now if we wanna rehash and burn some refs at the stake for that Indiana Hightower td catch…

Anyways overall I’m not upset at Hawkins for that (obviously) and I’m not even mad at him taking that timeout (though I’d still rather a coach do it there). He’s still making boneheaded moves that really hurt his overall play which has been fantastic. That three block attempt was by far his worst play yesterday b
 
#478      

bavanga3

B
bavanga3
john1952 said:
Be hard pressed to find in the history books where two Illini freshman pay a key role in knocking off a highly rated team.
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Not really. How quickly people forget. Adam Miller and Andre Curbelo did it multiple times a few years ago. Not debatable either. Miller was exceptional defensively and Curbelo was a stud offensively. They beat Michigan, Iowa, Ohio St all in the span of a few weeks. Especially when Ayo was out with a broken nose in Ann Arbor. That was a much bigger win than this considering it was a true road game in conference against the #2 in the country.
 
#479      

Roundball Sage

R
Roundball Sage
80'sIllini said:
If we can take better care of the ball, Mayer can play anywhere close to what he did today we can do amazing things this year.
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Mayer came out of Westlake High School in Austin. Yes, the same Austin that houses the U of Texas main campus that wears the wrong shade of Orange. Westlake is a sports powerhouse... particularly in football. Lots of big names come out of there.

He left the Austin area to travel up Interstate 35 for Waco, Texas to play for Baylor Bears.

And of course, now he has found the Promised Land by travelling up the '55' and then over to playing in the right color Orange for a true basketball-loving State University. Unlike the one in the Texas Capital City that loves the pointed ball.

It was great joy to see him catch fire on the big New York stage and lead Our Orange to a valuable victory both in team rankings and in street cred.

The Illini have the kind of roster where so many different guys can just go off on any given night. Lots of potential firepower and a nightmare for opponent’s defenses.

Not that there won’t be some stumbles with so many young guys... but the Illini should be considered a solid Top Ten team for the season. Sets things up nice for when Madness sets in.

And with the Illini program getting noticed a lot now in the Lone Star State... we just might have a new pipeline for snagging top talent in the future.

And for Old School commercial lovers...

'Oh, I Wish I Were a Matthew Mayer Winner! That is what I truly want to be...'
 
#480      

Bbuck21

B
Bbuck21
ChiefIllinois said:
Hate to beat a dead horse, but I’m not too upset with the refs not overturning the Coleman goaltend.

Something’s that’s true with all video reviews across sports is the need for clear and evident reason to overturn a call, whereas you don’t need that to keep the current call.

I’d bet money he touched it before it hit the glass, but it felt like a literal frame between touch and backboard hit. In my opinion on my 65 inch tv it was clear, but it would’ve been a hell of a call to overturn on that.

Now if we wanna rehash and burn some refs at the stake for that Indiana Hightower td catch…

Anyways overall I’m not upset at Hawkins for that (obviously) and I’m not even mad at him taking that timeout (though I’d still rather a coach do it there). He’s still making boneheaded moves that really hurt his overall play which has been fantastic. That three block attempt was by far his worst play yesterday b
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Completely agree. I thought it was clearly tipped. I wasn't upset with the call. And understood why he called the TO (that was a veteran decision). Thank goodness it didn't actually impact us negatively.
 
#481      

EyeoftheIllini

EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini
sulli said:
The potential undoing of this team is that they don't move away from the ball on offense (consistently). Way too many possessions feature several people standing on the wing or in the corner (especially the wing), no back picks, not even a v cut to get open.

When Kofi was on the team he stifled movement sometimes because he took up so much space in the middle and began posting up right away. Now he isn't there, which should free them up to do more movement away from the ball. Unfortunately, they've been inconsistent in changing. Sometimes they do. Hopefully, by season-end they will. The turnovers (aside from the charges which are sort of a one-off) are often because even making that first pass to start the offense is difficult due to the lack of movement. Pressure defenses make that pass hard and the counter is to do more work to free up the first pass and occasionally get an easy bucket since the guys producing the pressure can't see the movement behind them. If they know where you are they don't need to see you.
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Spot on analysis. Been wanting to post something like this and would not have wrote it nearly as well. There are so many times they have to commence their offense so far out because of the defensive pressure — and lack of movement and back cuts.
 
#482      

NJJ871

N
NJJ871
Roundball Sage said:
Mayer came out of Westlake High School in Austin. Yes, the same Austin that houses the U of Texas main campus that wears the wrong shade of Orange. Westlake is a sports powerhouse... particularly in football. Lots of big names come out of there.

He left the Austin area to travel up Interstate 35 for Waco, Texas to play for Baylor Bears.

And of course, now he has found the Promised Land by travelling up the '55' and then over to playing in the right color Orange for a true basketball-loving State University. Unlike the one in the Texas Capital City that loves the pointed ball.

It was great joy to see him catch fire on the big New York stage and lead Our Orange to a valuable victory both in team rankings and in street cred.

The Illini have the kind of roster where so many different guys can just go off on any given night. Lots of potential firepower and a nightmare for opponent’s defenses.

Not that there won’t be some stumbles with so many young guys... but the Illini should be considered a solid Top Ten team for the season. Sets things up nice for when Madness sets in.

And with the Illini program getting noticed a lot now in the Lone Star State... we just might have a new pipeline for snagging top talent in the future.

And for Old School commercial lovers...

'Oh, I Wish I Were a Matthew Mayer Winner! That is what I truly want to be...'
Click to expand...
I'm very thankful that you used the word "winner", I was concerned about where your song was headed.
 
#483      

EyeoftheIllini

EyeoftheIllini
EyeoftheIllini
Bbuck21 said:
Completely agree. I thought it was clearly tipped. I wasn't upset with the call. And understood why he called the TO (that was a veteran decision). Thank goodness it didn't actually impact us negatively.
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On the timeout, I wasn’t really upset about it, but I have to admit part of me wonders why he didn’t work to present himself better to Mayer as an outlet rather than turn his back on the play to try and get the timeout.
 
#484      

727ill

7
727ill
My game summary after watching the highlights:

1. Other than his head-scratching three late in the game, Coleman was fantastic. Most impressive was his defense on Texas guards late in the game. Checked Marcus Carr several times and Carr could not do anything.

2. Mayer was good. He was bound to explode at some point in terms of the scoring but we will need him more defensively + on the boards. The scoring will always be gravy.

3. Freshman guards were nails. Brad is juggling the minutes for Skyy + Epps brilliantly.

4. RJ was quietly really good, especially defensively. When he is on the ball, he's been our best defender IMO.

5. Dain was fine, would like to see him look to pass a bit more in the post. Sometimes he predetermines what he is going to do.

6. TSJ showed why he should be in the All-American conversation. What he did in overtime is what All Americans do.
 
#485      

Birdus

B
Birdus
sully said:
as opposed to Jay condescendingly smug Bilas? There was a long stretch of the game in the beginning the 2nd half where I was bumping early 2000s hip hop on my headphones because I was getting so annoyed with Bilas' hot smug takes
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Nothing new there. Mayer for Mayor:)
 
#487      

ptgrd23

ptgrd23
ptgrd23
I like the fact we go 9 deep (soon to be 10 with Luke) so we can go 100%.
Clark, Melendez, Mayer, Hawkins, Shannon
-----
Epps, Harris, Dainja, Rogers


The 89 Flying Illini brought 2 players off the bench
Gill, Bardo, Anderson, Battle, Hamilton
------
Smith , Liberty

The 2005 team
Brown, WIlliams, Head, Augustine, Powell
------
Ingram, McBride
 
#488      

HensonHall71

H
HensonHall71
ChiefIllinois said:
Hate to beat a dead horse, but I’m not too upset with the refs not overturning the Coleman goaltend.

Something’s that’s true with all video reviews across sports is the need for clear and evident reason to overturn a call, whereas you don’t need that to keep the current call.

I’d bet money he touched it before it hit the glass, but it felt like a literal frame between touch and backboard hit. In my opinion on my 65 inch tv it was clear, but it would’ve been a hell of a call to overturn on that.

Now if we wanna rehash and burn some refs at the stake for that Indiana Hightower td catch…

Anyways overall I’m not upset at Hawkins for that (obviously) and I’m not even mad at him taking that timeout (though I’d still rather a coach do it there). He’s still making boneheaded moves that really hurt his overall play which has been fantastic. That three block attempt was by far his worst play yesterday b
Click to expand...
I don't necessarily agree it was hard to overturn - either you see it double bounce off the backboard or you don't. If you didn't see a double contact with the backboard it was clean - which is clearly was, then you can check if it was in the cylinder or coming down, etc.

But my bigger issue is with calling it a goaltend in the first place. Goal tending calls are very rare - and reserved for the most egregious cases - a clean block against the backboard should be let go - either you see a clear double bounce against the board or you don't - "assuming a goal tend" in live action is just an awful call

The Epps pass that was deflected out is another example - usually they would use logic to say, he probably didn't just throw it 10 feet out of bounds on his own and someone deflected it - even if they didn't see it, another awful call. There were a couple of other out of bounds calls that should have been our ball that didn't go our way - it seemed lopsided watching it live

In general, they were letting them play, not calling a lot of contact, which is a better way to call the game, they just missed a lot of the out of bounds calls
 
#489      

combes

C
combes
ptgrd23 said:
I like the fact we go 9 deep (soon to be 10 with Luke) so we can go 100%.
Clark, Melendez, Mayer, Hawkins, Shannon
-----
Epps, Harris, Dainja, Rogers


The 89 Flying Illini brought 2 players off the bench
Gill, Bardo, Anderson, Battle, Hamilton
------
Smith , Liberty

The 2005 team
Brown, WIlliams, Head, Augustine, Powell
------
Ingram, McBride
Click to expand...
Ervin Small and PJ Bowman both got 10 minutes a game for the 89 team.

Nick Smith played in 38 games and averaged 11 minutes a game for the 2005 team. Warren Carter got 8 minutes a game.
 
#490      

Bbuck21

B
Bbuck21
LGIllini said:
One more hearty THANK YOU to the Illini for this win. The big boss (Baylor grad and Texas hater) called me out on a team call today to talk about the great game last night. Talk about a win-win! :D
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I miss that. I had a good customer once that I had a terrific relationship with. He was an Iowa basketball fan. I also had a guy working for me that was a diehard Indiana basketball fan. We had great fun getting after each other, and the professional and personal respect probably grew. That is way it is suppose to be. That is "win-win". I also had a boss for awhile that would go with me to a bar on the Thursdays and Fridays of the tournament weeks to watch any games. He almost missed a flight once. Enjoy.
 
#491      

BWA

B
BWA
ptgrd23 said:
I like the fact we go 9 deep (soon to be 10 with Luke) so we can go 100%.
Clark, Melendez, Mayer, Hawkins, Shannon
-----
Epps, Harris, Dainja, Rogers


The 89 Flying Illini brought 2 players off the bench
Gill, Bardo, Anderson, Battle, Hamilton
------
Smith , Liberty

The 2005 team
Brown, WIlliams, Head, Augustine, Powell
------
Ingram, McBride
Click to expand...

It's especially true for our bench guys. Hawk and Shannon are gonna get 33+ MPG, but the rest of the guys can really go all out. It lets guys like Sencire and Rodgers go nuts on the defensive end.

Hard to believe we are actually rolling 9 deep and everyone is contributing. Especially with four freshman. Rodgers is the only one who hasn't quite figured things out.
 
#494      

Manual3for4peat

M
Manual3for4peat
bavanga3 said:
Not really. How quickly people forget. Adam Miller and Andre Curbelo did it multiple times a few years ago. Not debatable either. Miller was exceptional defensively and Curbelo was a stud offensively. They beat Michigan, Iowa, Ohio St all in the span of a few weeks. Especially when Ayo was out with a broken nose in Ann Arbor. That was a much bigger win than this considering it was a true road game in conference against the #2 in the country.
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It’s a great win. But, with no fans, I’m not sure it was more of a road game than this one.

2020 was such a weird year.
 
#495      

jumpingjack

J
jumpingjack
BWA said:
It's especially true for our bench guys. Hawk and Shannon are gonna get 33+ MPG, but the rest of the guys can really go all out. It lets guys like Sencire and Rodgers go nuts on the defensive end.

Hard to believe we are actually rolling 9 deep and everyone is contributing. Especially with four freshman. Rodgers is the only one who hasn't quite figured things out.
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Yep, a legitimate 10 deep team with great conditioning and a ton of talent is a rare thing. When Goode is back, our second shift will be as balanced as the first shift. And they're pretty damn good as it is!
 
#496      

CleaverName

CleaverName
Chicago but not there anymore
CleaverName
aaeismacgychel said:
You are correct that what I wrote is a greatly oversimplified version of how his system works. I tried saying as much, but maybe it didn't come across. I was basically trying to explain the main concepts as simply as I thought they were able to easily understand. So a few responses to the points you brought up:

1. Tempo: This one I did mention in my post is a factor in EM. So EM is a pts per possession metric. Our adjusted offense metric is 111.9 which roughly means we're expected to get 1.119 pts per possession on offense. When you multiply this by tempo (possessions per game) that'll be your pts per game. If you are a subscriber, check out the Illinois-Texas box score and you'll see Illinois scored 85pts in 80 possessions and two- I haven't gotten a look under the hood of Ken's system since the shot clock was reduced from 35 to 30s so he might have changed score effects in adj EM in that time.

2. Predicted EM is not simply your adj EM minus your opponent's adj. EM. That's only true in a vacuum if your opponent doesn't affect your play at all and your play and their play are completely independent variables. This is not true so additional calculations are made to account for these variable's dependence.

3. Ken's predictive results that he lists in his FanMatch is actually dissociated from his adjusted efficiency metrics. Well, somewhat. FanMatch is a pet project for him and it includes many additional variables that the adj. EM does not include so there actually is no direct calculation from the EM metrics to the predictive score that can be done without significant additional info.

4. How do I know anything about this? I am a random person on the internet after all... So, years ago when Ken was in his final stages of formulating his FanMatch predictive system, I had the opportunity to work with him in doing some performance testing on it. That said, this is now closing in on 10years ago, so it's been a while. But on this topic, just know I'm not saying stuff just to say stuff, but that I also do need to balance what I say for educational purposes with what is actually going on in the engine, and to do my best to try not misleading people. Again, hope that explains things.
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Thank you for the explanation and examples. And for simplifying the explanation, I dont know enough about basketball and I've forgotten too much math to understand anything more detailed!

It does seem surprising that one part of the algorithm acknowledges that once the game is a blowout the teams play differently but the predictive margin of victory does not make the same allowance to say that as long as the game is a blowout (> 30 points margin of victory) the margin was met. It seems like this would be a simple and logical adjustment to make to the model, but I say that without knowing fully what is happening under the hood and understanding that you claim not to be Ken Pomeroy and are just a well informed messenger :)
 
#497      

The Galloping Ghost

The Galloping Ghost
Washington, DC
The Galloping Ghost
illinifan1987 said:
What movie/show is this from?
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giphy.gif
 
#498      

alexander58

A
alexander58
727ill said:
My game summary after watching the highlights:

1. Other than his head-scratching three late in the game, Coleman was fantastic. Most impressive was his defense on Texas guards late in the game. Checked Marcus Carr several times and Carr could not do anything.

2. Mayer was good. He was bound to explode at some point in terms of the scoring but we will need him more defensively + on the boards. The scoring will always be gravy.

3. Freshman guards were nails. Brad is juggling the minutes for Skyy + Epps brilliantly.

4. RJ was quietly really good, especially defensively. When he is on the ball, he's been our best defender IMO.

5. Dain was fine, would like to see him look to pass a bit more in the post. Sometimes he predetermines what he is going to do.

6. TSJ showed why he should be in the All-American conversation. What he did in overtime is what All Americans do.
Click to expand...
I believe the defense has been good. I do think RJ has trouble in switches.
 
#500      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
ptgrd23 said:
I like the fact we go 9 deep (soon to be 10 with Luke) so we can go 100%.
Clark, Melendez, Mayer, Hawkins, Shannon
-----
Epps, Harris, Dainja, Rogers


The 89 Flying Illini brought 2 players off the bench
Gill, Bardo, Anderson, Battle, Hamilton
------
Smith , Liberty

The 2005 team
Brown, WIlliams, Head, Augustine, Powell
------
Ingram, McBride
Click to expand...
Smith and Carter both got tick in '05, although Carter's was mostly in blowouts with spot duty here and there otherwise. Smith though was fully a used player. We'll have to see on Rodgers the rest of the way, he has 0 points against the four good opponents Illinois has played thus far and his unwillingness to shoot makes Illinois a lot easier of a team to defend. He reminds me a lot of Freshman year Da'Monte Williams, who of course played all season because the team was a lot worse back then. I think he will blossom into a very good player, but he may need some time to work on his offensive game and could get relegated to a Warren Carter in '05 type spot/mopup duty role in Big Ten play (especially with Goode slated to return in a month).

Harris is playing too well to leave off the floor right now. That's twice now he's been a huge spark for comebacks against really good opponents. He's making it impossible to leave on the bench, which is exactly what you want. Just get that man a free throw coach.
 
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