Illinois 85, Texas 78 OT Postgame

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#427      

the national

the national
the Front Range
the national
6DE8EB52-D19B-4C01-A718-50341318252A.jpeg
 
#428      

sdiver68

S
sdiver68
The strength of this team is numbers. We have 2 legit superstars and another 7 who are capable of being the star of the game on any given night. Which adds up to the "big 3" so often talked about in pro basketball.

9 like that minimizes the chances that off nights from even 2-3 sink the squad. And maximizes the chances we will have more left in the tank during the late 2nd half.

Its a good position to be in! I-L-L
 
#429      

BWA

B
BWA
aaeismacgychel said:
Believe it or not, this is a more complicated question than it looks based on how Kenpom's engine works as there are a couple things to take into account including how would a team overperform against a team rated so lowly, and how he deals with blowouts which is not exactly 1:1. I will oversimplify this, just to show what I mean, so this isn't exactly how the system works, but it's somewhat ballpark. Let's say there's 3 major factors in determining how "good" a win is against a given team:

1. Actual Efficency Margin vs. Predicted Efficiency Margin
2. Was the Margin of Victory 30pts or less?
3. Location of game

Okay, let's start with margin of victory. In Kenpom's engine just know that when you beat a team by more than 30pts, it's considered a "blowout" and you get greatly diminishing return for each point over this margin to the point of it being almost zeroed out. Why is this? Well, most teams when winning by more than 30 in the 2nd half will start putting in their bench. So how much should teams be rewarded for say winning by 60 vs say winning by 35? The short answer in kenpom's system is not all that much. So any margin over this effectively gets muted. Now again, I am oversimplifying it, but let's put the "cap" at around 30pts and "absolute cap" at 35pts as how much beating a team by affects your adjusted efficiency margin in the metrics.

Now, let's consider Location of game. Kenpom adjusted metrics are based on neutral court matchups and know that playing at home gives you around 3 points (not exact but again, ballpark).

And now let's talk about predicted efficiency margin which again I'm oversimplifying it but ballpark we'll say it's your adjusted efficiency margin minus your opponent's adjusted efficiency margin (note in reality that tempo plays a part in this, but I am omitting it as it will just make things even more skewed).

Alright, so let's now look at Illinois' 300+ ranked opponents and see what Illinois would be predicted to beat them by (pretending tempo is 60 poss per game):
vEIU: [+22.58] (ILL adjEM) - [-21.53] (EIU ajEM) + [3.0] (Home game) =+47.1pt predicted margin of victory
vMonmouth: 22.58 + 12.52 + 3.0 = +38.1pt
vLindenwood: 22.58 + 16.94 + 3.0 = +42.5pt
vAlabama A&M: 22.58 + 16.94 + 3.0 = +42.5pt
vBethune Cookman: 22.58 + 12.98 + 3.0 = +38.6pt

Now remember what I told you earlier, that your "absolute cap" for how much your margin of victory will affect your adjusted Efficiency Margin in any game is somewhere in the ballpark of about 35pts. And note how in every single one of those games for a "good win" you'd need to beat those teams by over 35pts, which from an adjusted efficiency standpoint can't happen no matter how much you beat them by. So, in other words, every single game you play against a 300+ ranked team in Kenpom's system is for all intents and purposes a win that is worse than you are expected to beat them by, hence why your metrics are artifically deflated for playing teams of this caliber. Now compare this to say a team ranked 250 who you should beat just as easily and your predicted margin of victory is +32.1pt. In other words, you can still get a better than predicted win against them.

One other thing to note is that when it comes to SOS and non-conf SOS most system metrics weight all teams equally, which when you consider the average B10 team you're playing is ranked #32 and the median non-conf opponent is #181, games against #300+ teams skews your average hard. Hence while we've played 3 Kenpom Top 10 team on neutral courts, our non-conference SOS is still only 217th in the country.

I apologize to everyone for the long post, but that is about as simple and efficient a summary I can give for why in Kenpom's metrics, playing 300+ ranked teams will always negatively affect your adjusted EM and SOS metrics regardless of how much you beat them by. Basically, you automatically lose just by scheduling them. Also know that this is a known "issue" (it's not really an issue or bug, it's just a limitation when it comes to how your system deals with blowouts) with Kenpom and most other metric based systems and when you schedule opponents coaching staffs and administrations in power conferences are well aware that you want to schedule cupcakes to get wins, but you don't want to schedule cupcakes that are too fatty. Hope that explains things.
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Huge thanks for the explanation!
 
#431      

Mr. Roberts

Mr. Roberts
Mr. Roberts
Watched the game on replay last night. Wow. One of the big things I haven't seen mentioned is how many minutes Mayer and Dainja played with 4 fouls - while still playing tough D and rebounding. They both stayed in the game and contributed without picking up #5.
 
#433      

STL Illini

S
STL Illini
illinitiger said:
Who called pregame for Mayer with breakout? alot of contributions at key times by many. In end our D and stopping turnovers were key to our game recovery.

Stop the turnovers, make FTs....
and we will compete with anyone.
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Just in….Illinois is a poor shooting team that turns the ball over a ton….and they are competing with the best in the country.
If Illinois starts making their free throws at an average rate and minimizes their turnovers similarly…they win the B1G and will be playing in April 2023 in Houston.
 
#437      

SescIllini

SescIllini
SescIllini
Coleman is so close to being a dominating player at this level. He is a defensive presence in the press and half court. He shoots and passes well. A knock down mid range shot, increase strength and continued improvement and he is there. Reducing mental mistakes and turnovers as well. Not talking about quantum leaps just subtle continued improvement.
 
#438      

Butters

B
Butters
aaeismacgychel said:
Believe it or not, this is a more complicated question than it looks based on how Kenpom's engine works as there are a couple things to take into account including how would a team overperform against a team rated so lowly, and how he deals with blowouts which is not exactly 1:1. I will oversimplify this, just to show what I mean, so this isn't exactly how the system works, but it's somewhat ballpark. Let's say there's 3 major factors in determining how "good" a win is against a given team:

1. Actual Efficency Margin vs. Predicted Efficiency Margin
2. Was the Margin of Victory 30pts or less?
3. Location of game

Okay, let's start with margin of victory. In Kenpom's engine just know that when you beat a team by more than 30pts, it's considered a "blowout" and you get greatly diminishing return for each point over this margin to the point of it being almost zeroed out. Why is this? Well, most teams when winning by more than 30 in the 2nd half will start putting in their bench. So how much should teams be rewarded for say winning by 60 vs say winning by 35? The short answer in kenpom's system is not all that much. So any margin over this effectively gets muted. Now again, I am oversimplifying it, but let's put the "cap" at around 30pts and "absolute cap" at 35pts as how much beating a team by affects your adjusted efficiency margin in the metrics.

Now, let's consider Location of game. Kenpom adjusted metrics are based on neutral court matchups and know that playing at home gives you around 3 points (not exact but again, ballpark).

And now let's talk about predicted efficiency margin which again I'm oversimplifying it but ballpark we'll say it's your adjusted efficiency margin minus your opponent's adjusted efficiency margin (note in reality that tempo plays a part in this, but I am omitting it as it will just make things even more skewed).

Alright, so let's now look at Illinois' 300+ ranked opponents and see what Illinois would be predicted to beat them by (pretending tempo is 60 poss per game):
vEIU: [+22.58] (ILL adjEM) - [-21.53] (EIU ajEM) + [3.0] (Home game) =+47.1pt predicted margin of victory
vMonmouth: 22.58 + 12.52 + 3.0 = +38.1pt
vLindenwood: 22.58 + 16.94 + 3.0 = +42.5pt
vAlabama A&M: 22.58 + 16.94 + 3.0 = +42.5pt
vBethune Cookman: 22.58 + 12.98 + 3.0 = +38.6pt

Now remember what I told you earlier, that your "absolute cap" for how much your margin of victory will affect your adjusted Efficiency Margin in any game is somewhere in the ballpark of about 35pts. And note how in every single one of those games for a "good win" you'd need to beat those teams by over 35pts, which from an adjusted efficiency standpoint can't happen no matter how much you beat them by. So, in other words, every single game you play against a 300+ ranked team in Kenpom's system is for all intents and purposes a win that is worse than you are expected to beat them by, hence why your metrics are artifically deflated for playing teams of this caliber. Now compare this to say a team ranked 250 who you should beat just as easily and your predicted margin of victory is +32.1pt. In other words, you can still get a better than predicted win against them.

One other thing to note is that when it comes to SOS and non-conf SOS most system metrics weight all teams equally, which when you consider the average B10 team you're playing is ranked #32 and the median non-conf opponent is #181, games against #300+ teams skews your average hard. Hence while we've played 3 Kenpom Top 10 team on neutral courts, our non-conference SOS is still only 217th in the country.

I apologize to everyone for the long post, but that is about as simple and efficient a summary I can give for why in Kenpom's metrics, playing 300+ ranked teams will always negatively affect your adjusted EM and SOS metrics regardless of how much you beat them by. Basically, you automatically lose just by scheduling them. Also know that this is a known "issue" (it's not really an issue or bug, it's just a limitation when it comes to how your system deals with blowouts) with Kenpom and most other metric based systems and when you schedule opponents coaching staffs and administrations in power conferences are well aware that you want to schedule cupcakes to get wins, but you don't want to schedule cupcakes that are too fatty. Hope that explains things.
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure this is wrong, as Kenpom shows it's predicted scores for all of Illinois' games, and the remaining ones do not match what your computing. I know it's not a straightforward calculation, but the first that strikes me about your math is that you listed 60 possessions per game, but then failed to adjust the margin of victory based on that. ajEM is per 100 I believe, so you'd get much closer to Kenpom predictions by multiplying those by ~.7 (we are averaging 72 possessions so far this year, but the number is still not exactly correct though). Once you do that, you see that Kenpom doesn't predict a 35+ point margin of victory for us against anyone all year.
Part of your point is correct though. If Kenpom predicts we will beat Alabama A&M by 31 and gives us a 99.8% chance of winning, it will be basically impossible to improve our standing by beating them.
 
#440      

IlliniFandom

IlliniFandom
IlliniFandom
My Takeaways from this game:
1) Everything BU has done this season is to prep for March; schedule, opponents, playing freshman early and in key moments, etc
2) No player is immune from a benching (TSJ/Clark today)...when you don't have it, he's going to sit you
3) Opponents can't key in on just one player because potential is there for another to step-up; Mayer/Epps today, Coleman the other day, Dainja early on..
4) We needn't get down on Ty. He's playing and should have time to adjust as all freshman should have. it's just our other 3 freshman are like anomalies and it's unfair to compare him to them. They just figured out/found their roles quickly.
5) We need to work on some jump stops to avoid these charges and FREE throws....key word FREE shots at the basket at a pre-defined distance that can be practiced/has been practiced since youth. I'm not saying it's easy (heck, I never make a free throw to get onto a pickup team).
6) I can't turn off the TV, no matter how ugly they play or how far they are down...they will fight back! Feeling 2005 vibes here
7) They just need more time in this defense to where switching becomes second nature. Saw a few missteps that led to easier baskets due to the miscommunication on switches. Can't wait to see it when there isn't anymore thinking which should be in a few months!
 
#441      

MustangWally

MustangWally
Mayfield
MustangWally
aaeismacgychel said:
Believe it or not, this is a more complicated question than it looks based on how Kenpom's engine works as there are a couple things to take into account including how would a team overperform against a team rated so lowly, and how he deals with blowouts which is not exactly 1:1. I will oversimplify this, just to show what I mean, so this isn't exactly how the system works, but it's somewhat ballpark. Let's say there's 3 major factors in determining how "good" a win is against a given team:

1. Actual Efficency Margin vs. Predicted Efficiency Margin
2. Was the Margin of Victory 30pts or less?
3. Location of game

Okay, let's start with margin of victory. In Kenpom's engine just know that when you beat a team by more than 30pts, it's considered a "blowout" and you get greatly diminishing return for each point over this margin to the point of it being almost zeroed out. Why is this? Well, most teams when winning by more than 30 in the 2nd half will start putting in their bench. So how much should teams be rewarded for say winning by 60 vs say winning by 35? The short answer in kenpom's system is not all that much. So any margin over this effectively gets muted. Now again, I am oversimplifying it, but let's put the "cap" at around 30pts and "absolute cap" at 35pts as how much beating a team by affects your adjusted efficiency margin in the metrics.

Now, let's consider Location of game. Kenpom adjusted metrics are based on neutral court matchups and know that playing at home gives you around 3 points (not exact but again, ballpark).

And now let's talk about predicted efficiency margin which again I'm oversimplifying it but ballpark we'll say it's your adjusted efficiency margin minus your opponent's adjusted efficiency margin (note in reality that tempo plays a part in this, but I am omitting it as it will just make things even more skewed).

Alright, so let's now look at Illinois' 300+ ranked opponents and see what Illinois would be predicted to beat them by (pretending tempo is 60 poss per game):
vEIU: [+22.58] (ILL adjEM) - [-21.53] (EIU ajEM) + [3.0] (Home game) =+47.1pt predicted margin of victory
vMonmouth: 22.58 + 12.52 + 3.0 = +38.1pt
vLindenwood: 22.58 + 16.94 + 3.0 = +42.5pt
vAlabama A&M: 22.58 + 16.94 + 3.0 = +42.5pt
vBethune Cookman: 22.58 + 12.98 + 3.0 = +38.6pt

Now remember what I told you earlier, that your "absolute cap" for how much your margin of victory will affect your adjusted Efficiency Margin in any game is somewhere in the ballpark of about 35pts. And note how in every single one of those games for a "good win" you'd need to beat those teams by over 35pts, which from an adjusted efficiency standpoint can't happen no matter how much you beat them by. So, in other words, every single game you play against a 300+ ranked team in Kenpom's system is for all intents and purposes a win that is worse than you are expected to beat them by, hence why your metrics are artifically deflated for playing teams of this caliber. Now compare this to say a team ranked 250 who you should beat just as easily and your predicted margin of victory is +32.1pt. In other words, you can still get a better than predicted win against them.

One other thing to note is that when it comes to SOS and non-conf SOS most system metrics weight all teams equally, which when you consider the average B10 team you're playing is ranked #32 and the median non-conf opponent is #181, games against #300+ teams skews your average hard. Hence while we've played 3 Kenpom Top 10 team on neutral courts, our non-conference SOS is still only 217th in the country.

I apologize to everyone for the long post, but that is about as simple and efficient a summary I can give for why in Kenpom's metrics, playing 300+ ranked teams will always negatively affect your adjusted EM and SOS metrics regardless of how much you beat them by. Basically, you automatically lose just by scheduling them. Also know that this is a known "issue" (it's not really an issue or bug, it's just a limitation when it comes to how your system deals with blowouts) with Kenpom and most other metric based systems and when you schedule opponents coaching staffs and administrations in power conferences are well aware that you want to schedule cupcakes to get wins, but you don't want to schedule cupcakes that are too fatty. Hope that explains things.
Click to expand...
GIF by Achievement Hunter
 
#445      

sully

sully
sully
IlliniTime said:
Should we call this team the Marathon Men? They just outlasted Texas tonight. The Longhorns had nothing left in the tank and we took the game from them. What an amazing win. Way to go, guys. And a special thanks to Fletch for training these guys to handle 40 plus minutes of intense hoops action.
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that is definitely going to come in handy come tourney time. Damn I love this team
 
#446      

Bigtex

Bigtex
DFW
Bigtex
LouHenson said:
The problem with the whole call was Higgins (the lead - under the basket made the call). That should never happen. The trail or C official makes a goal tending call. The lead is in a terrible position to see goal tending.

I made a call like that in one of my first HS games and the team that I made the call on lost in OT. The chew chief official ripped me a new one in the locker room after the game. I personally know John Higgins, and that was a terrible call from a “mechanics” of being a referee.
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Agree but then to compound it - the guy who made the bad call was the reviewer of the play also. Nope I didn’t make the wrong call
 
#447      

sully

sully
sully
kyillinifan said:
Glad we didn’t play Duke. Would have to listen to Dookie V.
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as opposed to Jay condescendingly smug Bilas? There was a long stretch of the game in the beginning the 2nd half where I was bumping early 2000s hip hop on my headphones because I was getting so annoyed with Bilas' hot smug takes
 
#448      

Birdus

B
Birdus
I like what I am seeing thus far. Still turning it over to much. Hopefully those will come down. Epps is as advertised. I have a feeling that Sky is going to have a breakout game soon. Goode will be a very valuable piece when he comes back. A big body that defends, rebounds, doesn't turn over that much and can spread the floor further with his shooting ability. It would be nice to run off about 6-7 games before we meet the Loosiers :)
 
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