For me, it is very simple. I am in my 70s. I have been watching Illini basketball since 1972. And I would like to see them win a national title before I die. So, although I enjoy the regular season games, I have to put myself in the position that if the Illini don’t win a national title or at least go deep (FF) in the tourney, I will be very disappointed in this season. Some of you youngsters may come to that position sometime in the future if the Illini don’t win it by then. Simple reason, ‘cause I am a simple man. Some (my friends, for instance) might even say, “simpleton”.
Illinois #9 in 3/9 AP Poll
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I get this, I really do, and as someone whose father-in-law is also in his 70s and an IU alum/fan, getting to see him experience that football championship was special (as much as I cringe to think of IU as a football powerhouse).
But just to shift the perspective a little, aren't you at least glad you survived the Groce years to see the Ayo/Kofi/TSJ and now Wagler eras? Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. Nothing will be as amazing as a national title, and I do WANT IT SO BAD, but that doesn't mean this season hasn't been worthwhile already.
I don’t care what their final record was. As I said AT THAT TIME they were playing to get into the tournament. They lost to us and Ohio State in the BTT and ended up in the NIT. I watched that game and winning by 12 points is not an unconvincing win against a desperate team on the road. You don’t know what you are talking about.
.We lead by double digits from the beginning?!
That seems unfair.
You know what I mean don’t be silly fool
then just say youre myopic and don't want to have a fair conversation then
i said the e8 team struggled down the stretch and thats true, you can hyperfocus and nitpick and split hairs on some single, meaningless sub-point if you want but it doesn't change what actually happened (and was my whole point) which was that the e8 team was like 164th in defense their last 5 gms of regular season and was barely beating nit teams... those are facts
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It was not an unconvincing win. You’re wrong. Now move on.
also that was a 4 point game well into the second half... but im the one that doesnt know what theyre talking about
That's 'great'. Wow someone definitely doesn't know the meaning of MOVE ON.
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lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I’ll help with this conversation a bit:
From Feb 1 to March 10 during TJ’s E8 season (final 10 games), Torvik had us ranked #19.
From Feb 1 to March 10 this year (final 9 games), Torvik has us ranked #5.
You may have a point about that game being uncertain at times, but the end result was still very good by the metrics (+33 net efficiency).
Here's the net efficiency of our last 5 that year:
+19, +21, +32, +27, +33
So our loss at Purdue and our win at Wisconsin were very good on paper. But the two before that were sub-par.
And here's our last 5 this year:
+61, +30, +19, +39, +15
Altogether, these are better than the last 5 from 2024, though the last 3 are worse. I personally think there's too much noise (and injuries/illnesses) to read too much into just those games (at least since they weren't that bad), but I understand the concern.
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Plenty of concern to go around, though:
Duke loses 1 starter for the season, another starter lost through at least ACC tourney
Michigan loses a big piece in LJ Cason
UConn just lost games to Creighton (81 in NET) and Marquette (91 in NET)
Houston is 3-3 in L6 including dropping 3 straight prior to playing powerhouses Colorado, Baylor and Ok St
Iowa St is 2-3 in L5 and 3-4 in L7
Purdue has lost 4 of its last 6 games
BYU has also lost 4 of its last 6 games
Gonzaga is Gonzaga, lost to Portland (221 in NET), playing single digit games vs San Francisco, Pacific and Oregon St
Texas Tech has lost 2 in a row to TCU and a Saunders-less BYU team
Nebraska a 20 point loss to UCLA, only 5-3 in L8 games
Michigan St loses to Minnesota, gets blown out by Wisconsin, scrapes by Ohio St, scrapes by Rutgers
Kansas is 2-3 in L5 and 3-4 in L7
Virginia scrapes by bad FSU team, scrapes by Ohio State, scrapes by Miami FL, blown out by 26 vs Duke, scrapes by Wake, scrapes by VT
I have no idea if this is serious or not but....
It's a nice accomplishment. It's what we have to hang our hat on.
But
Michigan
S16 - 2018, 2022, 2025
E8 - 2019
NC-L - 2024
Purdue
S16 - 2018, 2022, 2025
E8 - 2019
NC-L - 2025
IL
E8 - 2024
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I understand the general point you are trying to make (weighing tourney success more heavily than full body of work), but those recent years are not entirely accurate for Purdue and is completely incorrect for Michigan.
Purdue made the Champ game in 2024, the same year we went to E8. The year you have Michigan losing in champ game they actually were the bottom-feeder for B1G at 8-24. Michigan lost in champ game in 2018, made the S16 in 2017, 2019, 2022 and 2025, while making E8 in 2021. Pretty much they were very good with coaches not named Howard.
Well, not exactly correct for MI.
2018 - NC - L (not 24)
S16 - delete 2018 and add 2019
My point was even: I understand the sentiment based on the last 3 games, but I disagree with that sentiment since that's a really small sample size.
For what it's worth, Torvik has us #30 in the country since Feb 27. And you're right that most other top 4 seeds on BracketMatrix have concerns as well:
I somewhat agree about these:
Duke: #1 (you're right about their injuries though)
UM: #6 (their injury hurts, but not as much as Duke's)
Houston: #14 (not great, but better than us)
MSU: #15 (not great, but better than us)
I completely agree about these:
UConn: #87
IAST: #62
Purdue: #66
BYU: #100
Gonzaga: #41 (they've been without Huff, and their hopes rest on his unlikely return)
TT: #22 (surprisingly good without Toppin, but still they can't be feeling good about the tourney)
Nebraska: #50
Kansas: #90
Virginia: #59
Others you didn't mention:
Arizona: #4 (perhaps has the least concerns)
Alabama: #25 (meh)
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
And despite the fact that many teams hang banners for the events you list, they are simply marking and acknowledging they didn't win. S16, E8, loser in NC - these are artificial constructs. They might mean something to folks, but they are participation trophies. There have been discussions ad nauseum here on Loyalty about the challenges of a 1 and done tournament and what it means in the big picture of college basketball. For me, watching the Illini advance in the tourney is always exciting, and I'm hoping (since 1983 anyway) to see us win it all. But if you don't win the natty, every other team is a loser, regardless of where they drop out of the tournament, whether they are first loser or last loser, they lost. Championships and banners are forever. Since 2019, championship banners by B1G teams
Illinois: 2020-21 BTT, 2021-22 B1G (tie with Wiscy), 2023-24 BTT
Indiana: 0
Iowa: 2021-22 BTT
Maryland: 2019-20 B1G (tie with MSU & Wiscy)
ScUM: 2021-22 B1G, 2024-25 BTT, 2025-26 B1G
MSU:2019-20 B1G (tie with Maryland and Wiscy), 2024-25 BTT
Minnesota: 0
Nebraska: 0
Northwestern: 0
tOSU: 0
Oregon: 0
PSU: 0
PU: 2023-24 B1G, 2023-24 BTT, 2023-24 B1G
Rutgers: 0
UCLA: 0
USC: 0
Washington: 0
Wiscy: 2019-20 B1G (tie with MSU and Maryland), 2021-22 B1G (tie with Illinois)
If NCAA tourney results are the only thing that matters to you, then you do you, everyone can pick their own source of joy. I'll always pull for us to win banners first, and enjoy every minute the Illini are in the NCAA's, hopping and cheering for them to go all the way and win the natty. YMMV.
I'll always do me and others will do that same for them. I'll take as many S16 and better banners and big bowl wins as I can get. Sign me up.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
To clean this up and make it apples-to-apples within the last 7 years timeframe
Michigan
S16 - 2022, 2025
E8 - 2021
Purdue
S16 - 2022, 2025
NCG - 2024
Michigan State
S16 - 2023
E8 - 2025
Illinois
E8 - 2024
We want that to be better, no question. That plays into the superiority over your rivals thing just as surely as Big Ten record does.
And we are at risk of those rival schools' lead on us increasing this year. That's what's at stake.
Put simply, every additional 10 points of spread after the first 20 roughly halves the chance of losing.
An interesting part of BARTHAG/PYTHAG is that it aligns with scoring ratio ("points for" divided by "points allowed") instead of subtracting. So the example I gave holds for outscoring your opponent by 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% regardless of the actual numbers.
In Torvik's standings, we are behind Houston because their adjusted scoring margin is 34.2% (125.9/93.8) vs our 34% (132.5/98.9), while our net efficiency of +33.6 is better than their +32.1.
KenPom used to rank by pythagorean winning % but switched to net efficiency around 2017 (for understandability, I believe). We'd be slightly behind Houston on KenPom if he still used that.
This is an excellent post and perspective...
I won't speak for the "disappointed" fan section. But I do wonder if a lot of this angst is even mostly Illini related, and more that there really seems to be a clear 4 in Michigan, Duke (injuries we shall see), Florida, and Arizona. Lots of the metrics people like me love, all point to those 4 teams being awesome, and historic in that they all exist in the same year. Couple that with how thoroughly we got beat by Michigan at home, I do get how that leads to some disappointment, or as i called it after the michigan game "sobering".
But your post points out well, let's not go drastically overboard on this. If you think this team is merely a S16 ceiling team, it is again an example of being very unaware of what is going on with other teams nationally. Even those folks acting like Wisconsin is some juggernaut of late totally ignoring getting blitzed by Oregon and OSU.
Note: We also just have a nervous fanbase in general, that i wish we'd kick haha. TSJ is right.
Nothing a couple final fours or, ultimately, winning it all can't help cure! I think that is the point of all the worry. I say worry and not disappointment at this time. Everything still in front of this group! But you gotta bring it all 40 minutes from here on out!
Sure! Having that memory as well, I agree with you.
As much as rant on lots of illini fans not knowing what else takes place nationally with other teams, I need to do a better job also understanding how other fanbases react nationally as well - all fanbases, no matter success, will complain about their coach - whether scheme, roster construction, the dreaded "in-game adjustments", it is not solely unique to us.
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