I'm choosing to go into this weekend with a positive outlook! My wife will be at a bachelorette party, and my mother in law has begged to take Little Fighter (will be three in December!) to her house for the weekend. So, while I'll miss the hell out of both of them ... my Saturday will be a bit of a throwback to my pre-marriage and pre-dad days.
Got my TV setup going on our back deck, and I'll be posting up to watch our guys try to shock the world, and I'll head to the bars with a buddy of mine for the 2:30 pm slate!
Anyway, the point is I will go in with low expectations, eternal hope and will not get mad if / when we lose. However, this got me thinking ... win or lose, what were the times in my Illini football fandom lifetime where we gave a shockingly good performance vs. an elite team? Just eyeballing things since circa 2006 when I truly started watching every game as an eight grader, I identified the following games where I was NOT expecting us to compete and (again, win OR lose) we rose to the occasion. I'll once again reiterate that these are supposed to be "extreme" examples analogous to us heading to OSU this weekend ... I fully expected us to compete at PSU in 2024, for example. It is also obviously relative to fan expectations.
Anyway, here's my list, along with the Sports Reference links in case someone who is more of a football guru than I am could identify some type of pattern.
2006 - L 10-17 vs. #1 Ohio State
2007 - W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State
2010 - L 13-24 vs. #2 Ohio State
2019 - W 24-23 vs. #6 Wisconsin
2021 - W 20-18 (9 OT) at #7 Penn State
2022 - L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
So, setting aside things that would NOT be relevant as inspiration for this year's team (e.g., alleging that our 2022 team was just more talented or that 2021 PSU turned out to be overrated, etc.) ... what do we have to do to look like we belong on the same field as OSU on Saturday? Just skimming these games individually...
2006 - L 10-17 vs. #1 Ohio State
- Our offense only turned it over twice, below our season average of 2.9 per game.
- Our defense held OSU to 224 yards of offense vs. their season average of 385 yards per game.
2007 - W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State
- The obvious one is that Juice threw for 4 passing touchdowns, whereas he only averaged 1 per game.
- Our defense nabbed 3 turnovers from OSU, well above their season average of 1.7 per game.
2010 - L 13-24 vs. #2 Ohio State
- Some might be surprised this is on the list, but I very much remember this being talked about on other teams' message boards and a sort of statement that Illinois might actually be good. OSU never led by more than 4 points until we failed to stop a Buckeyes TD with just 1:49 left to put the game out of reach. We had them on the ropes. Anyway...
- We held OSU to 290 yards of offense compared to their season average of 449.
- On the same note, we held OSU to 16 first downs compared to their season average of 22 per game.
2019 - W 24-23 vs. #6 Wisconsin
- Other than the absolutely horrendous clock management by Wisconsin that even gave us a shot at the end, our defense forcing 3 turnovers was the biggest factor (Wisconsin averaged 1.6 per game).
2021 - W 20-18 (9 OT) at #7 Penn State
- Our defense was able to hold PSU's offense to 227 yards compared to their average of 376 per game.
- Even more importantly, we look to have shut down PSU's run game (allowing just 62 rushing yards vs. their average of 108 per game). This is likely what allowed us to "muck up" the game and hang around, allowing our guys to make the big plays late to steal the upset.
2022 - L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
- This was just a really hard-fought game between two very good teams playing tough football, and I have no problem saying that Michigan pretty much pulled it out because of that awful call.
- With that said, our defense showed up. McCarthy had a completion percentage of 65% that year, and we held him below 53%. Michigan's rushing attack averaged 239 yards per game, and we held them to 168. Michigan averaged less than 1 turnover per game, and we managed to turn them over.
TL;DR
If you agree with my list, it seems they divide up into these broad categories as the biggest factors for why we exceeded expectations as big underdogs. Obviously some of these results combine these factors, but I am trying to generalize.
1) Our defense turned in such a good performance that we could dictate how the game was played and hang around all game.
- 2006 - L 10-17 vs. #1 Ohio State
- 2010 - L 13-24 vs. #2 Ohio State
- 2021 - W 20-18 (9 OT) at #7 Penn State
- 2022 - L 17-19 at #3 Michigan
2) We had an exceptionally good offensive performance put us over the edge.
- 2007 - W 28-21 at #1 Ohio State
3) We relied on turning our opponent over to steal a win.
- 2019 - W 24-23 vs. #6 Wisconsin
So ... what's our path to a respectable performance? I feel like it unfortunately HAS to begin and end with the defense putting forth the type of performance we had no idea they were capable of. And that would almost certainly mean Houser is having a hell of a game, both keeping the defense off of the field and giving the defense some confidence / urgency to compete in what is still a close game. Anyone else have any paths to a miracle??
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