Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (April 2017)

[RichardKeenesHair]

I think people are overlooking the role that scarcity played in Mark Smith's recruitment. There just aren't that many guys as good as him that are still uncommitted.

Using the Scout top 100, there are 7 guys, including Smith, that are uncommitted.

Do I think that Mark Smith is a bit underrated? Maybe, but my uneducated opinion puts him around the 50-60 range at the highest (not to say he can't outperform many players ahead of him in college as we know the rankings aren't perfect). Will I be pumped if (when? ray he commits to the Illini? You bet. However, if it were a typical recruitment of a top-60 type guy leading up to signing day in November, I doubt Kentucky and Duke would have gotten very involved. Not to say that beating MSU wouldn't be great, but UK and Duke's involvement, IMO, has as much to do with the lack of great options left at this point in the game as it does Mark's impressive talent.

Smith is a complete outlier. Unless you are talking about a kid that plays overseas and very few have seen him. With the business college basketball has become you just don't see kids that were completely off the radar, with no camps, no AAU and basketball as their 2nd sport, all of a sudden explode and become Mr. Basketball of a State with the talent of Illinois. Underrated isn't really the right word, it is more like unknown until recently. However, if you think a 6'5" natural PG with Smith's strength, athleticism, court awareness, basketball IQ, scoring ability, touch and vision is only the 50-60th best high school player in the nation then I need to start watching high school basketball wherever you do

 

[RichardKeenesHair]

That's the problem with traditional stats. They just don't capture how good a player really is. You need to look at some of the newer, advanced metrics. For Jack, what really stands out are his DTPD numbers. (Defenders Torched Per Dribble)

Krap has a bellyfire and a will to win that is off the charts

 

[Deleted member 8213]

I think people are overlooking the role that scarcity played in Mark Smith's recruitment. There just aren't that many guys as good as him that are still uncommitted.

Using the Scout top 100, there are 7 guys, including Smith, that are uncommitted.

Do I think that Mark Smith is a bit underrated? Maybe, but my uneducated opinion puts him around the 50-60 range at the highest (not to say he can't outperform many players ahead of him in college as we know the rankings aren't perfect). Will I be pumped if (when? ray he commits to the Illini? You bet. However, if it were a typical recruitment of a top-60 type guy leading up to signing day in November, I doubt Kentucky and Duke would have gotten very involved. Not to say that beating MSU wouldn't be great, but UK and Duke's involvement, IMO, has as much to do with the lack of great options left at this point in the game as it does Mark's impressive talent.

I don't know how underrated he is. I realize that as fans we almost always think our recruits are better than they are. I don't know enough about the guys in the top 50 to rank him accurately. I'm sure there are a lot of aau honks here with a more accurate concept of that from seeing these guys play each other. Presumably thats what these guys working for the ranking services do for a living, so that's a reason to believe his ranking is accurate.

On the other hand, he was a baseball player who only focussed on basketball late. he blew up his senior year and these same guys didn't get a lot of time to evaluate him on the aau circuit. That would seem to indicate that his ceiling could be higher than his ranking. One thing I do know for certain, at least in my amateur opinion, is he's a significantly better prospect than Goodwin or Tilmon who are ranked well ahead of him. I know this from seeing all 3 of these guys play multiple times here in the metro east. I also realize that in Tilmon's case big guys are rated on a slightly different scale due to scarcity. At any rate I'd take Smith over both those guys in a heartbeat.

 

[ILL in IA]

Good to see the standard lead up to a recruitment decision continues. We are checking all the standards. Jack Krap crossover has been show. Soon we can dive into restaurants we miss and what we will turn to for joy or sorrow food. I fondly remember the pizza discussion from Cliffmas. Lets just hope we get to see a Ron Paul "It's Happening" to put the ! on Mark Smith to the Illini.

 

[ILL in IA]

Krap has a bellyfire and a will to win that is off the charts

Us White Sox fans call that TWTW

 

[skyIdub]

Can we think of any HS player that went from unknown, or a different sport, to Illinois Mr. Basketball in one year?

I'll set the over under at 1.

 

[RichardKeenesHair]

I don't know how underrated he is. I realize that as fans we almost always think our recruits are better than they are. I don't know enough about the guys in the top 50 to rank him accurately. I'm sure there are a lot of aau honks here with a more accurate concept of that from seeing these guys play each other. Presumably thats what these guys working for the ranking services do for a living, so that's a reason to believe his ranking is accurate.

On the other hand, he was a baseball player who only focussed on basketball late. he blew up his senior year and these same guys didn't get a lot of time to evaluate him on the aau circuit. That would seem to indicate that his ceiling could be higher than his ranking. One thing I do know for certain, at least in my amateur opinion, is he's a significantly better prospect than Goodwin or Tilmon who are ranked well ahead of him. I know this from seeing all 3 of these guys play multiple times here in the metro east. I also realize that in Tilmon's case big guys are rated on a slightly different scale due to scarcity. At any rate I'd take Smith over both those guys in a heartbeat.

Last think I'll say on the topic, but the ratings services guys don't have a template for a guy like Smith. I would doubt many have seen him play more than once, if at all. He's a complete wildcard and many have thrown them on their list sort of in the middle because they really have no idea other than the buzz he is getting now. I will say this - his game reminds me A LOT of a right handed Jalen Brunson, who I saw play many times, except Smith has at least 2-3 inches and 25 pounds on Brunson as a senior in high school

 

[618 Illini]

My post was sarcastic on the original story. I doubt Calipari is dumb enough not to read social situations involving athletes correctly and talk down education to a family who cares a lot about education, and I also doubt the story that Smith's family greeted the UK coach wearing MSU gear.

Agree that the story is hard to believe. Especially with how the family has seemed to handle the recruitment thus far with class and character. I am just relaying what I heard on the phone yesterday.

The point is that, despite the very limited information leaked on this recruitment, the only "noise" my contact has heard is Pro-MSU.

 

[haasi]

And if you think talent evaluators are just sort of shrugging their shoulders and throwing Smith near the top 50 without really knowing anything about him, you do not understand how this process works.

Probably why he's around 78 and not higher. Most probably haven't seen enough of him to have an educated view. He blew up during this HS season. People who do the rankings generally focus heavily on AAU ball. He's had a meteoric rise and generated enough attention that he somehow got himself into top 100, which is rare for someone to do this late in the game. But the higher he goes, the more visibility he would require, and he just hasn't had enough time to get the visible he'd need to go super high. I'm not saying that he's a top 25 player, but I am saying that he hasn't had the same chance others in the rankings have had to get evaluated, and when he has played or been rated locally against top 50 level players (Goodwin, Tilmon) he's come out on top, despite the fact that he only started focusing on basketball last year (!). I will bet my internet beach house that he ends up having a better basketball career than the majority of guys rated 40-60.

 

[aluma]

It's interesting that the last crystal ball for Mark Smith to Illinois was yesterday from an Ohio State Insider. I suppose it tells us what we already thought in regard to OSU and is maybe an indication that they felt it's likely he is going to Illinois.

 

[MadSeason]

I think just by offering alone Kentucky has made a prima facie case that Smith is underrated. They just don't offer guys like that very often. They don't have to

 

[skibdaddy]

This is the last you'll hear of me till after he commits, don't want to make his special day any less exciting for him! It's coming folks, go Illini!

Cash is trying to get us to take off our cups... don't listen to him

 

[troym22]

Cash is trying to get us to take off our cups... don't listen to him

I'm putting 2 on just for extra padding for this one

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I think just by offering alone Kentucky has made a prima facie case that Smith is underrated. They just don't offer guys like that very often. They don't have to

Curious if you'd say the same about Jemarl Baker. Is he wildly underrated too, or is he also filling a longer-term role for Kentucky when they're desperate for guards late in the process?

(off topic hot take: Kentucky probably isn't going to be very good next year)

 

[mhuml32]

Not this time. Smith is coming to Illinois, trust me.

And if you're wrong, you can cash me outside

 

[MadSeason]

Curious if you'd say the same about Jemarl Baker. Is he wildly underrated too, or is he also filling a longer-term role for Kentucky when they're desperate for guards late in the process?

(off topic hot take: Kentucky probably isn't going to be very good next year)

Desperate for guards? #1 Shooting Guard, #5 Point Guard and #2 Combo prior to Baker.

I think desperate may be overstating it a tad and they will be very good if not great with a Bamba commitment next year

 

[BMo79]

I think just by offering alone Kentucky has made a prima facie case that Smith is underrated. They just don't offer guys like that very often. They don't have to

Others have tried to make this point, but right now there is 3 top 100 PG left and 2 top 100 SG on one sight that is a lot of the reason some of the big school at least took a look. I am not saying Smith isn't a really good player, but saying he is underrated just is a bit old, I do not think he is much different then DaWill, and I would rank them around the same place

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Desperate for guards? #1 Shooting Guard, #5 Point Guard and #2 Combo prior to Baker.

Hamidou Diallo is gonna go pro, and those guys aren't just the only guards in the recruiting class, they're the only ones on the whole roster save for Brad Calipari.

(You're probably right that there are more elite additions coming to that class. The roster is shaky for right now. We'll see.)

 

[Obelix]

Agree that the story is hard to believe. Especially with how the family has seemed to handle the recruitment thus far with class and character. I am just relaying what I heard on the phone yesterday.

The point is that, despite the very limited information leaked on this recruitment, the only "noise" my contact has heard is Pro-MSU.

And your info is well appreciated, not intended to put down your post, just that the story that was relayed to you seems out of character for both Cal and the Smith family. :thumb:

 

[MadSeason]

Hamidou Diallo is gonna go pro, and those guys aren't just the only guards in the recruiting class, they're the only ones on the whole roster save for Brad Calipari.

(You're probably right that there are more elite additions coming to that class. The roster is shaky for right now. We'll see.)

Might go pro and I wouldn't be surprised if Cam Johnson ends up there.

 

[IbleedOandB2014]

I hear MSU just offered a guard today. Any truth to this? And if so, this makes me feel better about Smith.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Might go pro and I wouldn't be surprised if Cam Johnson ends up there.

Yeah, me either. Johnson fits their current needs more than Smith does.

Add Johnson and Bamba and things are looking up for them.

 

[mhuml32]

Hamidou Diallo is gonna go pro, and those guys aren't just the only guards in the recruiting class, they're the only ones on the whole roster save for Brad Calipari.

(You're probably right that there are more elite additions coming to that class. The roster is shaky for right now. We'll see.)

I'm not certain he'll stay in the draft process.

 

[MadSeason]

Others have tried to make this point, but right now there is 3 top 100 PG left and 2 top 100 SG on one sight that is a lot of the reason some of the big school at least took a look. I am not saying Smith isn't a really good player, but saying he is underrated just is a bit old, I do not think he is much different then DaWill, and I would rank them around the same place

I would put more stock in this if UK was offering everyone. They aren't. Trevon Duval and MJ Walker are top 50 guys without an offer

 

[Deleted member 10676]

Sounds like Bill's kid is turning into a top recruiter. Lead man on Ayo.

Bill Trocchi‏ @billtrocchi 29m29 minutes ago
#Xavier, #Illini leading the fight for four-star Chicago guard Ayo Dosunmu, says @CoreyEvans_10. http://rvls.co/Dosunmu