Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (August 2018)

[mattcoldagelli]

I have great respect for those who say "we hustled and didn't quit last year, it was better basketball than I've watched in years" in response. I just don't agree.

Is your position here that:

1) last year was not a step in the right direction, full stop
2) last year may have been an improvement, but paired with a total roster overhaul what difference does it really make?
3) losing, but not in the "trailing by 25 at the half on the road" John Groce mold, is the world's lowest bar so let's not make a big deal of clearing it

These are all legitimate positions, I'm just not sure which lane you're picking. For the record, I thought our offensive improvement was noteworthy last year, which was just about totally cancelled out by our horrifying defense. I - just as I did at the time of the hire - think Underwood is a plus coach in the tactical/strategy/teaching sense. I am REALLLLY hoping that our scattershot approach to recruiting is a short-term product of him being new and wanting to drastically shift the culture around the program. Otherwise I am concerned.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Is your position here that:

1) last year was not a step in the right direction, full stop
2) last year may have been an improvement, but paired with a total roster overhaul what difference does it really make?
3) losing, but not in the "trailing by 25 at the half on the road" John Groce mold, is the world's lowest bar so let's not make a big deal of clearing it

These are all legitimate positions, I'm just not sure which lane you're picking.

If I'm being honest, my position is a pretty blind loyalty to Kenpom, which I think does a terrific job of ironing out a lot of noisy and potentially contradictory information over the course of the season.

Besides the injury-ravaged campaign three years ago, it was the worst season we've ever had per that metric, by a pretty long shot. 2008, 2012 and 2017 were markedly better, to pick three memorably bad years, and it's pre-Kenpom but I've debunked the 1999 comparison at length before as well. My eye test certainly did not refute that conclusion.

For me it was a lot like our football team last year, sometimes you're just so bad all you can do is pick up the pieces and move on. The difference being, basketball jettisoned a number of the pieces, including some good ones.

So I guess to respond to your framing of it, it's mostly 1 with a dash of 2. Not 3. The bar is practically subterranean for next year, but I will be the first one to give credit for hurdling it.

 

[TheGMan]

AKA The "I'm never wrong camp"

Sure, that's one way to look at it. But I'd say a more realistic way is that there are several factors that are involved in a successful coach/staff, and that you can be optimistic about some while currently concerned about others.

 

[sacraig]

Seems to be two main camps. Those who are optimistic and think BU and co. are moving in the right direction and that there's light at the end of the tunnel. And those who are not encouraged by what they've seen thus far. While everyone has their own individual opinions with some facts thrown in now and again, ultimately, it's just what people believe versus what others believe. Is the goal here to try and convince others to agree with your view, or is it to try and make others feel bad because they don't agree with you? Because correct me if I'm wrong, but this is just a forum for Illini sports fans. Are there any posters who can actually make an impact to the current situation, such as firing BU, controlling which recruits get official visits, etc.? Lastly, my guess is that anyone who is actually involved with the current coaching staff most likely doesn't read this forum. I could be wrong though!

Shouldn't the real goal of posting on this forum be simply contributing to a discussion about Illini sports where folks learn new things?

I think you're missing the camp of people who are encouraged by the on-court product last year given the roster but who also have real concern over the recruiting situation.

 

[skyIdub]

God I hope the stat nerds don't ruin this game like they are baseball. Let the kids play, grow, get an education...while we enjoy the hell out of watching and rooting.

If you are a true fan, your blind loyalty should be with our team and our program....as this site directs....not some nerdy stat site.

 

[Dbell1981]

Sure, that's one way to look at it. But I'd say a more realistic way is that there are several factors that are involved in a successful coach/staff, and that you can be optimistic about some while currently concerned about others.

I completely agree. I still think it is a little premature to consider the recruiting a HUGE concern. As another poster stated, it's gonna take winning to lure the big dogs on a consistent basis. Who can blame Whitney for going to his dream school, Shannon is from Chicago so DePaul is understandable there as well. I would however like to see the retention of Walker pay off on the recruiting trail. He is the one that has missed on all the St. Louis kids the last couple years and I really hope we can wrangle in Liddell. He would be an absolute beast at the 4 where Black was. Could you imagine someone with Liddells athleticism in this offense? Lobs for days! Man I need to start posting in Orange. If we are hunting for bottom tier 3 star foreign kids next summer I'll be the first to say I'm getting a little concerned.

 

[Berg88]

God I hope the stat nerds don't ruin this game like they are baseball. Let the kids play, grow, get an education...while we enjoy the hell out of watching and rooting.

If you are a true fan, your blind loyalty should be with our team and our program....as this site directs....not some nerdy stat site.

I've often thought S&C isn't a true fan, I know that because he posts here so much. And stat sites? Are you kidding? STATS? Those are for the bees. I mean, really, when was the last time a stats website had anything good to say about Illinois? Rankings too. If you don't believe we have the six best freshman in the country coming in next year, you're not a true fan.

 

[Calvin]

What gets me disdainful is the utterly preposterous, logically swiss cheese excuse making on here. The house is on fire. Things have been going terribly. Credit will come when credit is deserved.

Missing the tournament was a terrible year. Missing it again was even worse. Three more years where we managed one NIT invite was a dumpster fire. There really isn't anywhere to go but up. I would advise you to back away from the panic button. No matter how bad you perceive recruiting, it's entirely possible that Underwood has enough of his guys to give us a decent season. Also, it's still early enough that we could still have a pretty solid class, given our lack of recent success.

 

[Berg88]

In my mind, those who were 'jettisoned', were all average players at best. Definitely not good ones by B1G standards.

I guess that depends on who you count as "jettisoned". Player retention is a huge part of current basketball recruiting. We lost 6 players with remaining eligibility. At a bare minimum, 3 of them would have been getting 20+ minutes a game on this years team. Those losses will force Kipper into playing even more minutes out of position at the 4 this year and will force us to be depending on big minutes from true freshman in the post. At the end of the day, the only standard that matters for our players is how they compare to our other players. Ebo was definitely not a good player by B1G standards last year, but it's not like we have a bunch of good players to replace him with. We have true freshman.

 

[Krush 2010]

If I'm being honest, my position is a pretty blind loyalty to Kenpom, which I think does a terrific job of ironing out a lot of noisy and potentially contradictory information over the course of the season.

Besides the injury-ravaged campaign three years ago, it was the worst season we've ever had per that metric, by a pretty long shot. 2008, 2012 and 2017 were markedly better, to pick three memorably bad years

The 07-08 campaign you mention here was an interesting one. I had a front row seat to it in Krush, and it was very disappointing. That team did make a run to the Big Ten championship game, and had to score very well in defensive metrics comparable to last years team. I'm sure the offensive metrics of that team were less-than-stellar though. I don't have vivid recollection of the 2012 season but I believe we spent some time ranked, and 2017 we were at least good enough to make the NIT and go a few games in that tournament. Obviously those seasons are going to measure better than last year where we never sniffed a postseason tournament, had no chance to make a run in the BTT, and never even received a measly vote in the polls.

That said, I did still see some hope watching last years team. Will that translate to a better season this year? I hope so, but the roster turnover is concerning. I'm optimistic but guarded.

 

[sacraig]

God I hope the stat nerds don't ruin this game like they are baseball. Let the kids play, grow, get an education...while we enjoy the hell out of watching and rooting.

If you are a true fan, your blind loyalty should be with our team and our program....as this site directs....not some nerdy stat site.

You sound like someone who just doesn't understand statistics.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

Where you are in the comfortable majority on this board is in the conviction that when a new coach is hired, the correct attitude is to display a lobotomized contentedness about absolutely anything that occurs for three to four years, and at that point to turn to vituperative scorn and demands that that coach be fired.

Where I apparently represent a minority on this board is lacking this belief that the word "rebuild" is some magical spell which totally eliminates any ability to analyze any signposts toward future success. It's like a smoke bomb, throw the word "rebuild" out there and all of a sudden all is shrouded in mystery and no truth can be gleaned until the smoke clears. And I think that's wrong. I think you see the progress all along the way.

You can't actually believe what you wrote here, can you? Does Dan just hire you to be like the Ron Burgundy of Loyalty? Increase the views?

 

[ChiefIllini]

In my mind, those who were 'jettisoned', were all average players at best. Definitely not good ones by B1G standards.

Look at who they went to. UW-Milwaukee, GCU, and Northeasterm? Ironically, I'd say out of all the transfers, MS had the worst year, yet is going to the best school.

Not saying they wouldn't have positively impacted this team next year, but your 100% right they were, at best, replacement level B1G talent. What remains to be seen is if the guys we are bringing in are above replacement level.

 

[sacraig]

Where I apparently represent a minority on this board is lacking this belief that the word "rebuild" is some magical spell which totally eliminates any ability to analyze any signposts toward future success. It's like a smoke bomb, throw the word "rebuild" out there and all of a sudden all is shrouded in mystery and no truth can be gleaned until the smoke clears. And I think that's wrong. I think you see the progress all along the way.

Actually, most who use the rebuild "excuse" are actually just pleading for others on here to show a little bit of contextual awareness. Do we, as a fan base and a historically-strong program expect NCAA berths every year? Yes. Should we? Yes. However, the context here is that we had a series of poor coaching jobs (and AD jobs in terms of keeping those coaches beyond their expiration dates), and our once-proud program had been pretty well driven into the dirt when BU arrived. So, when some of us talk about a rebuild, it is usually in the context that our program has been trash lately, and it takes more than a magical wave of the hand to compete for B1G (or better) championships again. Progress will likely be more incremental, and expecting some miraculous turnaround is, perhaps, a bit foolish.

 

[ILL in IA]

Not freaking out on our misses yet.....here is why.
I am still confident in BU to find players or plan B and C guys that fit his system well. Right guys in the right system have their strengths highlighted and can help hide weaknesses. That's why guys like AJ improved under BU. Under Groce, we had to hope lower ranked guys were diamonds in the rough and developed the overall game.
If the staff has the system in place this year, I think everyone will take a big step forward. If they can't get the system in place, that will concern me more than any of the recruiting misses.

 

[sacraig]

Look at who they went to. UW-Milwaukee, GCU, and Northeasterm? Ironically, I'd say out of all the transfers, MS had the worst year, yet is going to the best school.

Not saying they wouldn't have positively impacted this team next year, but your 100% right they were, at best, replacement level B1G talent. What remains to be seen is if the guys we are bringing in are above replacement level.

I think there are two equally-valid takes on this issue. The first is that we lost a lot of players that all have more experience in our program and our system than the incoming freshmen. That's tough and will likely hurt at least a little this upcoming season.

The second take, though, is that it might have been good for the long-term health of the program if it lets us use scholarships for UWM and NEU caliber players on better players. Obviously Finke wouldn't have taken up a long term scholarship and Black is a big loss, but otherwise, it might be some short-term pain for long-term gain. That is, of course, contingent on replacing those open scholarships with better players, which is clearly still a work in progress.

Personally, I am still a little miffed that we lost Mark Smith. The optics are bad, and I, unlike some on this board, still had quite a bit of hope for him. Sure, he looked slow as molasses out there on the floor last year, but that is pretty common for freshmen. He has a great frame and showed some flashes and I was honestly looking forward to his development. I think folks on here were just expecting him to come in and be like a two-and-done, which obviously looks silly in hindsight. All that said, I am not a basketball coach and am not an expert. Maybe he really isn't that good and Cuonzo just took him because of the PR it entails, but I tend to think Cuonzo is pretty good about talent and just can't coach.

 

[SKane]

I look at the situation this way.

Just about all of the other schools (except Rutgers) have surpassed Illinois in the last five years.

The question is whether Illinois is improving sufficiently with coaching and players to catch up with and surpass other programs that Illinois has historically been better than (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, for example).

I don't see this happening right now.

 

[TownieMatt]

I look at the situation this way.

Just about all of the other schools (except Rutgers) have surpassed Illinois in the last five years.

The question is whether Illinois is improving sufficiently with coaching and players to catch up with and surpass other programs that Illinois has historically been better than (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, for example).

I don't see this happening right now.

I think with the coaching and talent in the backcourt, this team can push ahead of the schools you mention within the next couple seasons. The issue in recruiting is that we need to prove that before recruits will take much notice.

 

[GForce]

For now I'm okay with 'good enough' players, system guys who know their role and do it well, as long as you can wrap them around a couple stars who suck up all the attention from opposing defenses and still get their own shot if needed. The good news is we have one budding star in Trent, and one potential star in Ayo. Then as the results start to improve on the court, we can start to reel in better and better recruits.
The question remains if the new guys are 'good enough', if they can develop a superpower, e.g. shooting 3s, rebounding, blocking shots, and play that role to the hilt.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

You can't actually believe what you wrote here, can you?

I can and do. I stand by every word of that and I think it describes the conventional wisdom around here to a T.

Does Dan just hire you to be like the Ron Burgundy of Loyalty?

No, but let me just state for the record that I am VERY open to that.

Actually, most who use the rebuild "excuse" are actually just pleading for others on here to show a little bit of contextual awareness. Do we, as a fan base and a historically-strong program expect NCAA berths every year? Yes. Should we? Yes. However, the context here is that we had a series of poor coaching jobs (and AD jobs in terms of keeping those coaches beyond their expiration dates), and our once-proud program had been pretty well driven into the dirt when BU arrived. So, when some of us talk about a rebuild, it is usually in the context that our program has been trash lately, and it takes more than a magical wave of the hand to compete for B1G (or better) championships again. Progress will likely be more incremental, and expecting some miraculous turnaround is, perhaps, a bit foolish.

I feel assigning the bolded description to my views is extremely unfair. A willful misreading.

Please, honestly, go re-read this thread. It's not a million pages long:

https://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forum/threads/official-2017-18-season-prediction-thread.24045/

 

[sacraig]

I look at the situation this way.

Just about all of the other schools (except Rutgers) have surpassed Illinois in the last five years.

The question is whether Illinois is improving sufficiently with coaching and players to catch up with and surpass other programs that Illinois has historically been better than (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, for example).

I don't see this happening right now.

The operative question isn't whether it happens "right now", but whether it happens in 2 to 4 years. A ship that has taken on as much water as our basketball program take a bit of time to bail out. Whether or not we are on the right track to turn it around in a few years is real question, and currently, we don't have any crystal balls to divine the answer, and the sample size of results is still very small for this staff, so it is really hard to say.

I, personally, am very encouraged by the culture shift we saw even in the otherwise trashy 2017-2018 season last year. You saw a lot less quitting, a lot more hustle, and players being held to account for bad attitudes. That's a good start. Like anyone here, I'd like to land some Kahlil Whitneys and even more Terrance Shannons to right this ship quickly, say, in 1 to 2 years instead of 2 to 4. That said, given the dumpster fire that our program has become the last several years, I am also plainly aware that Underwood et al. are basically selling a dream to recruits right now, and so we likely have to go out and prove something on the court before we can really reliably land some of those big fish. Even at that, we still got Ayo, and I am excited at least about our backcourt and wings and I am excited about this seasons.

Still, at least a small amount of recruiting success soon would put my mind at ease. Even the best driver in the world couldn't win the Indy 500 in a Ford Pinto.

 

[sacraig]

I feel assigning the bolded description to my views is extremely unfair. A willful misreading.

Please, honestly, go re-read this thread. It's not a million pages long:

https://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forum/threads/official-2017-18-season-prediction-thread.24045/

Sure, perhaps you say you aren't expecting a miracle, but then you lose your lid with every recruit we lose as if you expect this ship to be turned around right now.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

I can and do. I stand by every word of that and I think it describes the conventional wisdom around here to a T.

I literally can think of not one single person on this board who could be described as content yet you believe it's a majority.

You believe that it is a mere minority that believes we should see progress along the way. I literally can't think of a single person on this board that doesn't believe that.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

Sure, perhaps you say you aren't expecting a miracle, but then you lose your lid with every recruit we lose as if you expect this ship to be turned around right now.

I'm not all that broken up about Shannon. Would have been a nice get but we're in decent shape on the wing.

It was the excuses and strained narrative framing that set me off. Not even set me off, I feel like my posts get read as angrier than they are. I'm just here having a chat about the Illini, let's all be nice and have a good time.

Let me re-up my thesis statement here:

What would make me happy is the following:

1. Sign two quality bigs in the fall
2. Improve upon last year's performance
3. Show improvement as the season progresses
4. Show greater comprehension and sharpness running the Underwood system, particularly on offense
5. At some point make a staff change or two to add experienced teachers of the Underwood system
and most importantly
6. KEEP ALL THE PRODUCTIVE GUYS FOR THE YEAR AFTER

That's the path to me changing my tune. If those things represent unreasonable expectations, I'm happy to have that conversation.

I literally can think of not one single person on this board who could be described as content

Okay, maybe read this one as slightly angry. What on earth are you talking about? I don't even know how to respond to that.

The majority of the board is content, nay, excited with the direction of the program and reacts with barely contained fury when it is suggested that the evidence that we are headed in the right direction is anything short of undeniable. As Exhibit A I submit the entire contents of this board, as Exhibit B I submit the fact that we're even having this argument.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

It was the excuses and strained narrative framing that set me off. Not even set me off, I feel like my posts get read as angrier than they are. I'm just here having a chat about the Illini, let's all be nice and have a good time.

Let me re-up my thesis statement here:



That's the path to me changing my tune. If those things represent unreasonable expectations, I'm happy to have that conversation.



Okay, maybe read this one as slightly angry. What on earth are you talking about? I don't even know how to respond to that.

The majority of the board is content, nay, excited with the direction of the program and reacts with barely contained fury when it is suggested that the evidence that we are headed in the right direction is anything short of undeniable. As Exhibit A I submit the entire contents of this board, as Exhibit B I submit the fact that we're even having this argument.

Seriously, do you have language skills? You realize that being excited with the direction of the program does not equate to being content. I really don't even know how to respond to that.

You have this black and white view of the basketball program's fans. They agree with you and their wise and brilliant. They don't agree with you, they've been lobotomized.

There's such a broad spectrum out there, but you've got these magical glasses that turn everything into black and white.

Look at what you just wrote. "it is suggested that the evidence that we are headed in the right direction is anything short of undeniable." Most people are optimistic. That's the general nature of a fan. They won't deny those things that concern them. But you're routinely caught up in minimizing any good things apparently out of fear that BU or JW might look good? There's evidence that points in the right direction. There's evidence that points to challenges and warns of failure.

More importantly, and what is obviously completely lost on you is all the evidence that we don't see. You keep telling us how there isn't a plan and all is chaotic, etc. But you have absolutely no idea what's actually happening behind the scenes. Instead of humbling accepting that you don't know, you fill in "facts" that support your negative narrative.