As a true freshman, Lucas averaged 18 minutes a game for a team that finished 9th in conference. You don't think, as a junior, he could be a backup point guard for a decent team?
In the second half of his freshman year, Ebo averaged 14 minutes a game, led the team in offensive rebound percent and was third in defensive rebounding (behind Black and Kipper). You don't think, by his junior year, he could be a backup center for a decent team?
How about Finke? Here's some stats for you: last year Finke had the second highest offensive rating on our team (behind Jordan); Finke turned the ball over less than anyone on our team (81st in the nation lowest turnover rate); Finke shot 62% from the field (best on the team and 116th in the country). He's 6'10 and a career 36% three point shooter. You don't think there's a way that he could play 15 minutes a game for a top 6 team?
Mark Smith will have the chance to prove you wrong or right at Missouri over the next couple years, I expect he will be a contributor for them, if not this year then next.
I think people are doing those kids a disservice by claiming they just aren't good enough to contribute. Not to mention the fact that they wouldn't really be judged by if they could play for a top 6 team, they'd be judged by if they could play for us. Still too early to be making predictions for next season yet, but I'd guess that if we had the first three players I mentioned, I'd be increasing our win total by at least 3.
I don't want to get caught up in a discussion about the kids themselves. I won't claim to know anything about team chemistry and don't have anything bad to say about their effort level or anything like that, and I generally think that it's a bad practice when fans go there.
What I am concerned with is whether or not Illinois has players who can contribute meaningfully to a team that will make the NCAA tournament. That is my one and only yardstick (until , and it's my expectation that we should be looking to that as our primary measure of whether or not this team is performing as it should. That's why I'm writing off some players who, yes, could play for a ninth-place B1G squad. Even if they could contribute to a team more than an incoming freshman, I don't consider it worth the opportunity cost of bringing in someone potentially better to keep someone around who can't get us to that level.
So, yes, Lucas could have slotted in for Andrew Dakich at OSU last season and probably given them a similar performance. Dakich only played 8 mpg or so, and was clearly a weak link there. Lucas turned the ball over way too much, can't shoot, and his foul rate betrayed a weakness on the ball defensively. Maybe he would have progressed, but he had a long way to go.
Finke did some useful things, but among them were neither rebounding nor defending the post, and he was frankly bad at both. And as to his turnover rate, he didn't create any plays beyond the shots he took, so the low figure there would be expected. I honestly think his warts would keep him from the rotation for most competitive teams.
I could be wrong about Mark Smith and he's got a long way to go, but his performance against better competition was not good. I'm not sure I see it with him, to be honest. He might be a contributor two years from now, but that's two years from now.
Ebo was the toughest pill for me to swallow and I think he can be pretty productive, if one-dimensional. I also think that he had valid personal reasons for leaving that didn't relate to the program or the coaching staff, though we'll never know that for sure. I do think that his loss hurt, though.
I'd like to aim higher than what those guys bring to the table, even if it means a short-term setback or two. If you think that these were vital pieces to a winning team, we're probably not gonna agree on how much losing them hurt. I'm more concerned about who's coming in, to be honest with you.