I think he’ll be around the 13-14 ppg mark
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (October 2018)
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I think he’ll be around the 13-14 ppg mark
And yet people claim"it’s a debate between being able to successfully recruit for other programs vs being able to replicate it at Illinois." There is not a "replication" issue here.
According to this article: Grand Canyon Basketball: 2018-19 Season Preview, Finke isn't even projected to start. Of course, take that with the proverbial grain of salt. What does the writer know, It's early, it's a "preview", etc.
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/10...all-2018-19-season-preview-for-the-antelopes/
https://bustingbrackets.com/2018/10...all-2018-19-season-preview-for-the-antelopes/
I don't think that there's too much that's known about Underwood's recruiting at this stage of his career, to be honest with you. His track record includes a stint at a low-major, which I wouldn't put a ton of weight on because it's so dramatically different than high-major recruiting, and two single years at separate mid-pack P5 schools. I might be in the minority here, but probably his best data point is last year, and that's also his most encouraging result. Landing a fringe top-25 class while getting a late start and moving to a new geography is not nothing, even though we know it could have been better.
I still think that there are way more questions than answers at this point, and I feel like we're not getting a great 'answer' based on how this particular class is shaping up. I also feel that if he doesn't work out here, Whitman should deservedly face questions about why he hired a guy with such an incomplete track record around such a critical part of the job. But we're two to three years away from knowing whether this thing is going off the cliff or not.
All that said, I think that the true bellwether will be next year's class, not this one. There's ample evidence that coaches can be successful in the recruiting game even after stumbling out of the gate for two classes, with Beilein and Turgeon being the two nearest examples. (Turgeon is the guy I'm hoping Underwood will emulate in that phase of the game -- decent class out of the gate, bad augmented by some transfers in year two, and then sustained success anchored by a guy he convinced to stay home.)
I'd love to see success like Miller and Holtmann have had, but they both had much easier tasks -- they inherited better programs, and ample relationships built with high major recruits in the region already in place. Again, it's an open question as to whether or not Whitman should have factored the change in geography into his hiring process, but then again, if you know you're rebuilding maybe it doesn't make quite as much of a difference.
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
More playing time will add points, usually.
But the question really should be how will his +/- change...
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
Even those who arrange and design shrubberies are under considerable economic stress in this period in history...
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
You're not going to find a much better track record overall than the one Underwood had when he took this job. Schools like Illinois don't steal major conference head coaches very often. And in the recruiting area it paid immediate dividends as he landed Mark Smith and Ayo before he coached his first game.
Whitman did his part, he aced the coaching carousel madness and has given his coach big time resources. Now it's up to Underwood to build a successful program with a winning culture.
Friends. Help me out on this question. Recruiting will heavily influence our resurgence. However, I have a critical question. Will Brad Underwood have a greater winning percentage in his first 5 years at Illinois than John Groce?
I made a bet with a friend right after Groce left stating U if I basketball would have a worse winning percentage the next 5 years due to many factors. I was told no way would U of I basketball could get any worse. But can it?
JG career @ UofI 95-75 .559%
BU year 1: 14-18 .438%
BU has to average 20.25 wins years 2-5 to tie JG.
Let’s say BU year 2 we go 16-16. BU will have to average 22 wins years 3-5. Last year only 6 teams won 22 games. That is pointing towards BU having the Illini finish in the top 6 of the Big Ten starting year 3 through 5.
Last year in big 10 we finished 12/14
This year we are projected 13/14
JG average finish in BIG 10. 8.6
Not wanting to rehash the JG firing, but how much faith to you have in our staff to recruit players for this system, coach and player develop the players we have now, and turn this ship around?
I made a bet with a friend right after Groce left stating U if I basketball would have a worse winning percentage the next 5 years due to many factors. I was told no way would U of I basketball could get any worse. But can it?
JG career @ UofI 95-75 .559%
BU year 1: 14-18 .438%
BU has to average 20.25 wins years 2-5 to tie JG.
Let’s say BU year 2 we go 16-16. BU will have to average 22 wins years 3-5. Last year only 6 teams won 22 games. That is pointing towards BU having the Illini finish in the top 6 of the Big Ten starting year 3 through 5.
Last year in big 10 we finished 12/14
This year we are projected 13/14
JG average finish in BIG 10. 8.6
Not wanting to rehash the JG firing, but how much faith to you have in our staff to recruit players for this system, coach and player develop the players we have now, and turn this ship around?
Deleted member 643761
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Not much known? I'd disagree. The book is far from written, but we've had a ton of guys in and not closed. He's pretty clearly not a natural recruiter. The question for me is whether he can have enough on court success to improve his recruiting and create a positive upward spiral.
I'm not sure why you'd suggest there was a problem with his incomplete track record on recruiting. Virtually every guy coming in would have. Bill Self's record was incomplete when we hired him. Hell, it's amazing that we were able to actually land a guy who had a record at a P5 school. that's fairly uncommon.
I'm optimistic, but mostly because I think we'll be better than expected this year. But if we don't make the tourney, as expected, I see the next class as one that will not likely have a blue chipper. I'm not sure what performance we'd have to put up to convince Miller to come here, but I don't think NIT will do it. But that's just musing with nothing really to go on.
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
The first two years may skew the average so that it may be worse, but I'd bet the nicer of my two beach houses that years 3-5 will be way better.
I like the hire quite a bit and I'm not nearly at the point where I'd consider it a failure, as noted. But if he doesn't succeed because he can't recruit, it's worth asking the question as to whether or not his recruiting ability was overlooked. If he's gone after year four, questioning the hire is 100% fair game regardless of what the consensus opinion was when he was brought on board.
I'm still pretty confident he'll succeed, so that's all completely hypothetical.
I'd disagree and say that I don't think his record at Illinois is long enough to give us a good idea of how it will eventually shake out. We'll know more at the end of next season. But I do share your confidence.
In terms of his track record coming in, I think it's difficult to judge a coach until he's had three or four years at any given stop. The fact that we got Underwood from OSU is unusual, but the fact that he wound up there with only three years at a low-major under his belt is equally unexpected. The analogue for his hire by OSU would have been us hiring Self after three years at Oral Roberts.
wettsten
- Chicago
Deleted member 8632
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Chester
sacraig
- The desert
This assumes that the coaches operate in silos. Yes, the head coach is ultimately the main driver here. But to imply that a head coach who isn't an ace recruiter can't leverage and learn from his assistants who are is not realistic. Antigua, for example, was a huge part of the recruiting and closing process with Calipari and then went off and was a head coach on his own for a bit where he was the closer. He clearly knows how to get things done in recruiting.
So your position is that we have good recruiting assistants and a poor recruiting coach, and this is the root of our recruiting woes. For tgis to be true, it necessarily implies that our great recruiters like Antigua are not sharing what they know about successfully closing with Underwood and/or Underwood is not seeking or heeding their advice and experience on the matter. I find both of those notions unrealistic unless there are deeper interpersonal issues with the staff.
Deleted member 643761
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You can't teach and can't much change personality. I think people need to examine their own relationships. Not all of them are built on "facts".
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sacraig
- The desert
If you are in a profession that relies on building personal relationships with 18-year-olds and you can't think critically about your failures and alter your approach to improve, then friend, you're in the wrong job.
Deleted member 643761
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Guest
Sigh.....
Some people are flat out better at this and other professions that have a strong personality component.
Of course he can change. But if you actually don't realize that some guys just flat out have the knack and others don't.....wow.
Not sure that you read the entire post. Much of the ability to recruit is personality, the ability to connect and form relationships on a personal level. Head coaches can learn, but not everything is a "tactic", a lot of it has to do with personality traits that are often more difficult to change.
You can take Bruce Weber to any, and as many, seminars you want. You will not turn Bruce Weber into Bill Self in recruiting. His personality and ability to connect with recruits (and AAU/HS coaches) will never be a match for Bill Self's personality and ability to connect with recruits.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I will give you that Weber will never have the personality of Self, however, Self has always pushed the gray areas which Weber didn't do. This is now coming out with the FBI trials, in fact, it appears that Self has gone well beyond gray.
IllFanInMi
I
Guest
The debate was already going, my point was simply that just because OA was successful as a recruiter ( who couldn’t be at Kentucky), doesn’t guarantee he would be here, obviously.
Of course, as the head coach is a far more important and critical factor in closing.
Deleted member 746094
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Self, K, Calipari, Roy, Izzo and probably a few others I am leaving out are where they are because what Obelix mentions above. They just have the “it” factor and in addition to being a quality basketball coach their personalities lend themselves to being very likeable and trustworthy. They have a God given ability to reel recruits in and 99% of it is for them is just being who they are naturally.
In watching and listening to BU, he is obviously articulate and knows the game. However, at times, I think he appears to be trying too hard. His over use of superlatives (i.e. “elite”) in describing every player in every interview is a little overwhelming and I can see him coming off that way to recruits and their parents. JMO.
Yes, and it is not just blue bloods either. Self certainly did it at Illinois, and what Izzo did at MSU is also remarkable recruiting-wise. Sure it becomes easier if you can do it consistently but MSU was nowhere the program it is now when Izzo took over.
How about what Bryce Drew is doing at Vanderbilt? It is not easy, but it takes strong recruiting, and certainly can be accomplished at UI as well.
If he is able to pull that off, then Majerle will have his pick out of any 4/5 player wanting to get to the PRO's...hell if Finke can get those numbers, imagine what Majerle can do for me?
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