Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (September 2017)

[TCTORNADO]

I don't see that anywhere, but if he did say it, sounds like a joke to me. What I did see when Ryan Evans made a big deal of talking to everyone because if this is true, his prediction is wrong was this:

Michael O'Brien‏Verified account @michaelsobrien 58m58 minutes ago
ha, thx. good for Illini! Generally found the kids to be the worst source of recruiting info though. Tell everyone what they want to hear.

One thing I'll say is I'll go way out on a limb here and say MOB is definitely more plugged into what is being said in Chicago than the Swami.
Mike is a pretty nice guy actually -- don't know him well, but we email and I see him when he comes out to games in the Fox Valley. Def not a blowhard.

Plus MOB knows Anthony Davis' Dad real well. :thumb:

 

[IlliniDent]

Hoping we can land Nolley but I feel like this one is going to be a rollercoaster the rest of the way

 

[SescIllini]

I don't see Nolley at VT, I don't see the buzz about VT or Buzz Williams. No one is a guru when it comes to these recruits, they seem to keep the information tight. Likely not committed to a school just yet.

 

[NBB1979]

Pretty sure Meyer doesn't do this. He's the only CB I really pay attention to.

He's coming up on 1,000 projections and is hitting at almost a 75% rate. That's solid.

Meyer and Norlander are the 2 CB's I pay most attention to. This is not good for Illinois

 

[Obelix]

These two pieces of your post contradict one another. Of course (most of) these guys make their picks based on information they have and not wild guesses. Also, it's true that Meyer seems to have, on average, better information than most, largely because he has such a large amount of data at his disposal from his network of analysts. That said, he does hedge, and it's silly to act like scheduled OVs are not part of the dataset that these guys use in making their picks.

It could just as easily be that he has very concrete info that says that Nolley is starting to lean VT, or it could be that he has very little concrete info so he is making a change based on reading the tea leaves knowing full well he can just change later (as he often does). Either way, it's not "good" for us, but it's not necessarily a strong indicator, either. Until near the very end, crystal balls rarely are.

It does not contradict one another. An analyst can guess based on OV coming up (per your original post) so he can change that pick if commitment does not happen (or scheduled right after). Meyer does not do that, he has no record of frequently changing picks before visits or based on visits coming up. When Meyer makes a CB pick it means that at a minimum has information pointing in that direction (at that time). He does not read tea leaves, he is one of the best in the business. If he changes his pick to Illinois, it would mean that he has some new solid information to justify it. The dynamics of a recruitment can certainly change, as does the accompanying information on those dynamics.

Meyer is not a favorite among Illini fans, because he has often made picks contrary to popular recruiting desires or expectations on Illini message boards. But reality is that most of those associated recruiting decisions did not end up going our way.

CB is a marketing tool, so many analysts will cast their picks. But a few of them carry more value. Meyer is definitely one of them.

 

[skyIdub]

 

[Obelix]

I mean, the bold is not just true, but demonstrably so.

Didn't we all just live through about 5 years of "insiders" serially failing at differentiating the real info from the BS recruits will serve them just to be left alone?

Exactly. Recruits will almost never tell analysts/writers before announcement where they are going to commit to. Yet, in most recruitments, there is usually pretty solid information (especially as the recruitments progress towards announcement) on where a recruit will end up.

 

[Obelix]

So......2 pair? and 3 of a kind?

I think the correct poker analogy with respect to Illin fans and their recruiting beliefs is that we end up with a low pair after the flop, yet we are convinced we will end up with a 4 of a kind in the next two cards and are willing to (emotionally) bet heavily on that outcome. When that does not happen, we are still convinced that our low pair is till the best hand on the table

 

[Calvin]

So......2 pair? and 3 of a kind?

1 pair.....that you should cover with a cup, should you follow recruiting.

 

[TheGMan]

Exactly. Recruits will almost never tell analysts/writers before announcement where they are going to commit to. Yet, in most recruitments, there is usually pretty solid information (especially as the recruitments progress towards announcement) on where a recruit will end up.

I'm not saying that I take Landers word as gospel, because why would I? I don't know him. But we are arguing that recruits rarely tell people the whole truth, but apparently these sources from Curie were told the truth by Landers?

If recruits rarely tell the whole truth, and can't be trusted as accurate sources of information, then reports about what some sources were told by the recruit certainly aren't reliable.

tl;dr: Everything is false. Don't believe anything.

 

[TheGMan]

Oh c'mon, so you think if the original report was correct, Nolley would just confirm it and not deny it?

Not to pick on your posts, but it seems that you are saying that because he denied it, that it is probably true. But it's just as likely that he is denying it because it is actually not true.

All I'm saying is who knows what is really true? Don't disregard any information, but also don't take any information as the absolute truth until he actually signs his LOI

 

[Illiniwek06]

I think the correct poker analogy with respect to Illin fans and their recruiting beliefs is that we end up with a low pair after the flop, yet we are convinced we will end up with a 4 of a kind in the next two cards and are willing to (emotionally) bet heavily on that outcome. When that does not happen, we are still convinced that our low pair is till the best hand on the table

Haha love the analogy.

 

[Obelix]

I'm not saying that I take Landers word as gospel, because why would I? I don't know him. But we are arguing that recruits rarely tell people the whole truth, but apparently these sources from Curie were told the truth by Landers?

If recruits rarely tell the whole truth, and can't be trusted as accurate sources of information, then reports about what some sources were told by the recruit certainly aren't reliable.

tl;dr: Everything is false. Don't believe anything.

I think you are coming to a wrong conclusion. My post, and others, do not say that recruits do not tell anyone, or do not give any kind of indication to people close to them, just that recruits will not directly give that information to analysts/writers/fans. They will indeed tell them what they want to hear, or what recruits themselves want them to hear.

In most recruitments, there is usually pretty solid information (especially as the recruitments progress towards announcement) on where a recruit will end up, but not from directly telling analysts/writers/fans.

PS. Whether the Curie information is accurate is up to interpretation. Just that Nolley would have denied it, even if it were true.

 

[Dvick217]

What's all the big uproar about?

 

[TheGMan]

I just realized that following recruiting is a perfect illustration of Schroedinger's Cat.

Until a recruit actually signs a LOI, he is both coming to U of I and going somewhere else.

 

[Obelix]

Not to pick on your posts, but it seems that you are saying that because he denied it, that it is probably true.

Not what my post(s) said.

 

[IlliniDent]

I think you are coming to a wrong conclusion. My post, and others, do not say that recruits do not tell anyone, or do not give any kind of indication to people close to them, just that recruits will not directly give that information to analysts/writers/fans. They will indeed tell them what they want to hear, or what recruits themselves want them to hear.

In most recruitments, there is usually pretty solid information (especially as the recruitments progress towards announcement) on where a recruit will end up, but not from directly telling analysts/writers/fans.

PS. Whether the Curie information is accurate is up to interpretation. Just that Nolley would have denied it, even if it were true.

:thumb: yep exactly

 

[Adnarel]

What's all the big uproar about?

In a word, nothing.

 

[TCTORNADO]

I'm not saying that I take Landers word as gospel, because why would I? I don't know him. But we are arguing that recruits rarely tell people the whole truth, but apparently these sources from Curie were told the truth by Landers?

If recruits rarely tell the whole truth, and can't be trusted as accurate sources of information, then reports about what some sources were told by the recruit certainly aren't reliable.

tl;dr: Everything is false. Don't believe anything.

Supposedly one of the Curie sources is none other than KFC!!

 

[Illwinsagain]

I think the correct poker analogy with respect to Illin fans and their recruiting beliefs is that we end up with a low pair after the flop, yet we are convinced we will end up with a 4 of a kind in the next two cards and are willing to (emotionally) bet heavily on that outcome. When that does not happen, we are still convinced that our low pair is till the best hand on the table

THIS+

 

[Illwinsagain]

I just realized that following recruiting is a perfect illustration of Schroedinger's Cat.

Until a recruit actually signs a LOI, he is both coming to U of I and going somewhere else.

 

[TheGMan]

Not what my post(s) said.

And my post didn't say that's what your post said, but that it seemed like it. So thank you for clarifying.

 

[Psycho 86]

I just realized that following recruiting is a perfect illustration of Schroedinger's Cat.

Until a recruit actually signs a LOI, he is both coming to U of I and going somewhere else.

BAZINGA !!

 

[bert1991]

1 pair.....that you should cover with a cup, should you follow recruiting.

Thanks - I really did laugh out loud with that one.

 

[bert1991]

I think the correct poker analogy with respect to Illin fans and their recruiting beliefs is that we end up with a low pair after the flop, yet we are convinced we will end up with a 4 of a kind in the next two cards and are willing to (emotionally) bet heavily on that outcome. When that does not happen, we are still convinced that our low pair is till the best hand on the table

That's pretty perfect