Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

[Flight33]

I ignored you after this comment so I won't see your reply I guess but how would firing BU put us back to Groce era? You really think a Groce level coach is the best Josh could do as a replacement? Have you been paying attention to the other coaches he's hired? I am not arguing for firing BU but to say firing him sets us back that far is laughable. Yes, this is my first post, so flame away.

No need to flame at this. Nice reply for your first try. Sad that you don't come to a forum to actually discuss. What's the point, otherwise?

* and, while I think we would get a better coach than Groce, my main point here is that it'd put us back in that level of predicament. We have the coaches in place now who are able to recruit nationally while having strong in-state connections. And, both of our best recruiters are local guys (meaning in state) who have built strong relationships. When you get rid of the coach the whole programs does a re-boot. We don't need that now.

 

[illini0440]

These "fire Brad" folks just make me laugh. The NCAA tourney has always been about who is hot at the end and who gets favorable matchups. We all want Illinois to reach the promised land and win a natty. But, you've got to get there to win. What Brad Underwood has done in his brief time here is amazing. He brought UI out of the worst stretch of basketball they've seen since before Lou Henson turned the program around in the 80's. Underwood has brought us to a point where we are a destination for great talent, we challenge for championships in the Big Ten every year, and we are in the mix of a top four NCAA tourney seed. No one could ask for more. Unless you are Connecticutt or Villanova then you have a complaint about NCAA results over the last 10 years. Last year definitely showed why the success of programs can't be based solely on NCAA results.

Firing Brad Underwood would put us back in the Groce era. No one wants that.

No it wouldn’t

 

[Illini in Italy]

I ignored you after this comment so I won't see your reply I guess but how would firing BU put us back to Groce era? You really think a Groce level coach is the best Josh could do as a replacement? Have you been paying attention to the other coaches he's hired? I am not arguing for firing BU but to say firing him sets us back that far is laughable. Yes, this is my first post, so flame away.

Just to be argumentative, I think it's been shown historically that firing a men's basketball coach typically sets a program back 3-5 years. Now that "historical" detail doesn't reflect the reality of today's NIL/portal environment, but I think it's safe to say that a coaching change creates an even larger roster turnover than what we're seeing today, which impacts the next few seasons' results, and not in a good way.

 

[SescIllini]

Just to be argumentative, I think it's been shown historically that firing a men's basketball coach typically sets a program back 3-5 years. Now that "historical" detail doesn't reflect the reality of today's NIL/portal environment, but I think it's safe to say that a coaching change creates an even larger roster turnover than what we're seeing today, which impacts the next few seasons' results, and not in a good way.

Depends on the new coach and school. At Illinois, firing Groce was necessary and BUs hire didn't turn the program around immediately. It took Ayo's second year with Kofi to turn things around.

Arizona and KState were immediately good after new coaches. Michigan has struggled with coaching changes.

 

[Old Farm Illini]

These "fire Brad" folks just make me laugh. The NCAA tourney has always been about who is hot at the end and who gets favorable matchups. We all want Illinois to reach the promised land and win a natty. But, you've got to get there to win. What Brad Underwood has done in his brief time here is amazing. He brought UI out of the worst stretch of basketball they've seen since before Lou Henson turned the program around in the 80's. Underwood has brought us to a point where we are a destination for great talent, we challenge for championships in the Big Ten every year, and we are in the mix of a top four NCAA tourney seed. No one could ask for more. Unless you are Connecticutt or Villanova then you have a complaint about NCAA results over the last 10 years. Last year definitely showed why the success of programs can't be based solely on NCAA results.

Firing Brad Underwood would put us back in the Groce era. No one wants that.

I like Underwood and I think he can make the Sweet 16 with the roster as is, but I trust that we can get a homerun hire if he doesn’t make it past the second weekend this season. I also think the NIL era allows for quick rebuilding and reloading if we lost any recruits from a coaching change. I’m really hoping for the former though. The whole season matters to a certain extent since that helps with seeding, but if you don’t make a run in a couple of the seasons you can absolutely blame this on the coach not preparing the team to peak at the right time.

 

[LadyLoyalty]

Just to be argumentative, I think it's been shown historically that firing a men's basketball coach typically sets a program back 3-5 years. Now that "historical" detail doesn't reflect the reality of today's NIL/portal environment, but I think it's safe to say that a coaching change creates an even larger roster turnover than what we're seeing today, which impacts the next few seasons' results, and not in a good way.

“Just to be argumentative” should be the new name of this site

 

[DAM1298]

If Huggins gets fired (gay slur and DUI back to back is a tough look), do we think his transfers get waivers? Kriisa and Edwards would be extremely sought after, and we have a hole that the former could fill…

 

[LvilleILL]

Brad is a very good coach. He can recruit well. However, pressure will start to mount on needing a good postseason run. Needs to happen in the next couple of years-this year will be a golden opportunity. Veteran team, all American caliber player, etc. This is a huge year for Brad

 

[KnoxIllini2]

Brad is a very good coach. He can recruit well. However, pressure will start to mount on needing a good postseason run. Needs to happen in the next couple of years-this year will be a golden opportunity. Veteran team, all American caliber player, etc. This is a huge year for Brad

 

[sacraig]

No it wouldn’t

I suppose it could if we, for example, hired Groce to replace him.

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Brad is a very good coach. He can recruit well. However, pressure will start to mount on needing a good postseason run. Needs to happen in the next couple of years-this year will be a golden opportunity. Veteran team, all American caliber player, etc. This is a huge year for Brad

These two factors alone should end the foolish talk of him being fired. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[BashCtIllini]

If Huggins gets fired (gay slur and DUI back to back is a tough look), do we think his transfers get waivers? Kriisa and Edwards would be extremely sought after, and we have a hole that the former could fill…

thought he only got suspended a couple games for it and it's over.

 

[illini0440]

These two factors alone should end the foolish talk of him being fired. Be careful what you wish for.

Why?

 

[BashCtIllini]

Why?

because we hadn't won a conference title since 2005 and Underwood won one, so we clearly couldn't do any better.

I don't care if you want to keep Underwood. I don't care if you think he should have been fired after this last season. I'm personally in the boat of, not so sure about you coach, you need to show me something this next season or I will go over to the fire him boat. The part that annoys me is, why do some say my view is the righteous view and anyone who disagrees with me is a miserable person, delusional, or just in general bad? If you disagree with someone's view provide your counter. That's kind of the point of message boards. Boards devolve into a mess when it starts becoming name calling or personal attacks because you don't like someone's view.

 

[Wrightandjohnstreet]

No it wouldn’t

Underwood has been the right guy for the job to take a program in the dumps to respectability. It’s unclear if he’s the guy to take them from respectability to greatness. But firing him would not automatically put us back to the dumps. The program is in a better place and has the resources, so it’s very reasonable to expect us to attract an as good or better replacement if it came to that

 

[Wrightandjohnstreet]

Brad is a very good coach. He can recruit well. However, pressure will start to mount on needing a good postseason run. Needs to happen in the next couple of years-this year will be a golden opportunity. Veteran team, all American caliber player, etc. This is a huge year for Brad

As it should. Good programs need to have strong standards for success. Bar for success shouldn’t be static either, it should continue to evolve and grow. For example, standard for success for us is different now than it was in 2019

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Why?

Very good coach?
Can recruit well?

If those two very important factors are solidly in place, firing for the sake of firing seems very short sighted. We hear complaints about coaches being good Xs and Os guys but can’t recruit, or being good recruiters but can’t coach.

If Brad indeed adept at those two qualities, barring any external factors, keeping him should be a top priority. The last coach we had with both of those traits is now winning National Championships at Kansas (after years of horrible tournament failures, no less).

 

[Navy_illini]

West Virginia's Huggins arrested on DUI charge

West Virginia coach Bob Huggins was arrested in Pittsburgh on a charge of driving under the influence, with police saying his blood alcohol content was 0.21% in a breath test.

www.espn.com

This will be interesting if he coaches this year

 

[nichi]

I ignored you after this comment so I won't see your reply I guess but how would firing BU put us back to Groce era? You really think a Groce level coach is the best Josh could do as a replacement? Have you been paying attention to the other coaches he's hired? I am not arguing for firing BU but to say firing him sets us back that far is laughable. Yes, this is my first post, so flame away.

I think if you fire an otherwise successful coach over postseason struggles after 7 years; then hiring an established coach might be difficult.

Coaches who recruit well, regularly win 20 + games, compete for conference championships, and make the NCAA tournament consistently generally are not fired unless it is for gross misconduct.

 

[ElGran]

Brad is a very good coach. He can recruit well. However, pressure will start to mount on needing a good postseason run. Needs to happen in the next couple of years-this year will be a golden opportunity. Veteran team, all American caliber player, etc. This is a huge year for Brad

Just don't see it w/o a capable PG, which we don't have. I think they'll be about as good as or slightly better than last year.

Add a capable PG and I would predict Sweet 16 or better as we have some really good pieces at the 2-5 positions. If only there were some good PGs out there, because our roster should be a very attractive place for a PG to step into.

 

[Illini in Italy]

Depends on the new coach and school. At Illinois, firing Groce was necessary and BUs hire didn't turn the program around immediately. It took Ayo's second year with Kofi to turn things around.

Arizona and KState were immediately good after new coaches. Michigan has struggled with coaching changes.

This study done by researchers at Ball State & IUPUI looked at the impact of coaching changes in NCAA Div. 1 men's basketball from 1999 to 2014 (736 in total). Overall, "Results . . . indicated a regression to the mean occurs after most coaching changes except for the most elite programs." The "elite" programs indicated in the study were North Carolina and Kentucky .

A more recent article by the lead researcher summarizes as follows:

"Overall, athletic results suggest that hiring a new coach is not as effective as most stakeholders would desire. Because almost 70% of men’s basketball coaching changes result from negative circumstances (i.e., fired due to poor performance), it is likely that athletic directors succumb to pressure from sub-par coaching records and hot seat discussions. (Emphasis added)

When firing decisions are made, and athletic directors are faced with hiring a replacement, the collective results counter the beliefs that a coach’s playing experience, coaching experience, or previous place of employment are the significant factors for improving winning percentages. Instead, the collective findings show that teams will likely have no more than an additional win per season than they did with the preceding coach."

Given that ~76% of the coaching changes examined in the studies were negative in nature (the coach was fired), and the results in the subsequent years after the change resulted in less than one additional win per season, it's pretty clear that not much good comes from a coaching change. Not to say it doesn't happen, but it is rarer than most think.

I found it interesting that the lead researcher pointed out that

"Though there are many pressures on athletic directors to change coaches, the five studies broadly suggest that a new coach is largely inconsequential from an athletic standpoint, and often hurtful academically."

 

[TampaToo]

The one BIG difference in our recent lean years (late Weber era and Groce era) is……JOSH WHITMAN. If a change were to be made I am very confident he would have no problem finding a top tier replacement.

 

[skyIdub]

Well, for me the "Brad on a pedestal for reviving our program" Honeymoon Phase ended when he pretty publicly (agent or otherwise) started poking around, leaking info, etc... to obviously negotiate an extension with a pretty nice pay bump.

I don't begrudge him for it....just as I don't begrudge his boss JDubs crossing his arms and saying "ok...put up or shut up".

You want elite pay? Better bring me elite results.

 

[CoalCity]

thought he only got suspended a couple games for it and it's over.

DUI was last night

 

[nichi]

If Huggins gets fired (gay slur and DUI back to back is a tough look), do we think his transfers get waivers? Kriisa and Edwards would be extremely sought after, and we have a hole that the former could fill…

No.