I'm not at all confident the bolded language above will be borne out in an era with penalty free-transfers.
While experience playing within a system is of course a positive factor, it can be outweighed by other factors like greater talent, physical maturity and playing experience, and the portal with provides the means to make those upgrades. Pretty radical shift from CBB history, but I believe that teams that recognize and take advantage of the opportunity to upgrade their roster and plug holes via the portal will have an advantage over time over those who do not.
To do otherwise is akin to a MLB team choosing to rely only or primarily on their own draft picks/farm system, while competing against teams willing to spend more freely in free agency and make strategic trades of players they drafted when they see an opportunity to improve the team. Both have a chance to win, but one approach will win more often over time.
E.g., Kansas lost 10 scholarship players after last season (8 portal transfers out plus 2 early entry draft picks).
- 8 transfers out will be playing for Boise State, UC Santa Barbara, East Carolina, Washington State, St. John’s, NC State, Syracuse, and TCU next year;
- After working the portal for a couple months, they are now ranked #1 in ESPN's too-early pre-season rankings for next year, older (3rd oldest roster out of ESPN's top 25 (
Link ), with an average age of 22.6 as of next March), more experienced and better positioned to be a title contender than they would have been had they rolled forward with their pre-existing roster that had more experience within their system.