Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#151      
I agree. Never understood on judging a coach on what amounts to be around 5-10% of the season. Sure we all want to see some tournament success, but single elimination tournaments are always going to be a little random. We hired Groce because he made a Sweet 16 with Ohio and look how that worked out for us. I don't see how anyone could have too many qualms about how Brad has ran this program.
Sure, it's just 5-10% of the season but game 1 and game 40 are not weighted equally.

Wooden, K, Smith, Knight aren't considered the greatest because of the games they won in January.

I have no qualms with Brad. Qualmless. But he still has something to prove.
 
#152      
I agree. Never understood on judging a coach on what amounts to be around 5-10% of the season. Sure we all want to see some tournament success, but single elimination tournaments are always going to be a little random. We hired Groce because he made a Sweet 16 with Ohio and look how that worked out for us. I don't see how anyone could have too many qualms about how Brad has ran this program.
Simply put, to have a sustainable coaching career at a P5 level, you need to have postseason success. That doesn't mean you have to win it all or have a team capable of winning it all every year, but you do need to be able to at least play at, if not better than your tourney seed along with your regular season success.

I mean think of it as a fan- what would you rather have? A team that is capable of winning the B10 every 3 out of 4 years but never makes it to the Sweet 16? Or a team that is in the running for a B10 championship maybe every 1 out of 3 years on average but those teams are national championship contenders who make the 2nd weekend, some of whom go on to the Final 4 and Title game? I just don't see many fans picking the former.

As for Brad, I still feel it's too early to say, but if he still doesn't have any postseason success within another 2 years, in my opinion it'll be difficult for him to justify his position as coach and I can't see his seat as anything other than red hot. There's really no excuse for Illinois not being able to make a Sweet 16 every so often and 8 years or 2 full recruiting cycles seems like a long enough time to say you are what you are.
 
#155      
fluke NCAA champions - when is our turn

--Michigan 1989 12-6 in B10 - interim coach Fisher. Nick grabs that air ball rebound and we go to finals
--NC State 1982 8-6 ACC - won ACC tournament to get into NCAA . Akeem grabs the airball rebound and Houston wins
- Villanova 1984 9-7 Big East. Shot 79% to upset Georgetown
 
#156      

Central IL Illini

Springfield, IL
Simply put, to have a sustainable coaching career at a P5 level, you need to have postseason success. That doesn't mean you have to win it all or have a team capable of winning it all every year, but you do need to be able to at least play at, if not better than your tourney seed along with your regular season success.

I mean think of it as a fan- what would you rather have? A team that is capable of winning the B10 every 3 out of 4 years but never makes it to the Sweet 16? Or a team that is in the running for a B10 championship maybe every 1 out of 3 years on average but those teams are national championship contenders who make the 2nd weekend, some of whom go on to the Final 4 and Title game? I just don't see many fans picking the former.

As for Brad, I still feel it's too early to say, but if he still doesn't have any postseason success within another 2 years, in my opinion it'll be difficult for him to justify his position as coach and I can't see his seat as anything other than red hot. There's really no excuse for Illinois not being able to make a Sweet 16 every so often and 8 years or 2 full recruiting cycles seems like a long enough time to say you are what you are.
Mark Few has made 2 Final Fours in 24 years. It's hard to win a bunch of games in a row in the tournament. Lot of luck involved. We ran into some buzz saws and had some bad games at bad times. 8 seed Loyola that was a top 10 KenPom. 5 seed Houston who was a top 5 Kenpom team. An 8 seed Arkansas team with multiple first round picks. Frazier had a couple of his worst games ever in the tourney. Ayo and Kofi were terrible vs Loyola. It happens sometimes, but I do agree if we don't see some more postseason success he probably will be on the hot seat.
 
#157      
Quality 7 footers aren't easy to land, whether out of H.S. or the Portal. I agree that it would be nice to add another big, but I'd be happy to get one in the 6'9 or 6'10 range. This is college basketball. Not many teams, even Natl Champion teams, have a quality 7 footer.
That's true but even just a long 6'10 or 6'11 ish player with some bounce that can protect the rim defensively and just be a rim runner.

Ther were definitely a couple of guys like that in the portal. Ware went to IU, Bandaogo went to Cincinnati, Edwards went to West Virginia. Then a bunch of other guys like Cisse, Shedrick, and Udeh were all in the portal.
 
#158      
Sure, it's just 5-10% of the season but game 1 and game 40 are not weighted equally.

Wooden, K, Smith, Knight aren't considered the greatest because of the games they won in January.

I have no qualms with Brad. Qualmless. But he still has something to prove.
Wooden won his championships when only conference champs were invited to the tournament. He retired right as the field expanded to include at large bids. (1975) Smith and Knight only won one each in a format that resembles the gauntlet teams face now. (Over 60 teams)
Doubling the field in 1985 created a heck of a lot more variance in outcomes.
 
#159      
Wooden won his championships when only conference champs were invited to the tournament. He retired right as the field expanded to include at large bids. (1975) Smith and Knight only won one each in a format that resembles the gauntlet teams face now. (Over 60 teams)
Doubling the field in 1985 created a heck of a lot more variance in outcomes.
I'm not sure how much randomness the move to 68 from 32 introduced wrt. winning the tournament. 90% (89%?) of the winners since the expansion had a #3 seed or better. (65% seeded #1) These teams have a 92% win rate in the first round. (.99, .93, .86) If one only looks at the #1 and #2 seeds, one of them wins the tournament 80% of the time. They have 13 first round losses in 38 years. i.e. In 2 years out of 3, the first round has no impact on the #1 and #2 seeds.

I think there is more balance than there used to be in the 4-12 seeds. It leads to a lot of upsets between teams that are very unlikely to make the final 4.
 
#160      
Wooden won his championships when only conference champs were invited to the tournament. He retired right as the field expanded to include at large bids. (1975) Smith and Knight only won one each in a format that resembles the gauntlet teams face now. (Over 60 teams)
Doubling the field in 1985 created a heck of a lot more variance in outcomes.
You still have K but I think what confirms the point @21ChampaignSt is making is that nobody talks about Boeheim in that group, despite being the winningest coach in men’s basketball history (everyone was cheating, stop it). And he even has a title.
 
#162      
I don't think people are expecting championships. But they are expecting that we play in the second weekend more often.

I ran the numbers in March. I think there's about 80 teams with a sweet 16 since our last one.

BTW, Iowa has gone without for one more year I think.
 
#163      

MDchicago

Lake Norman NC
BTW, Iowa has gone without for one more year I think.

Iowa's ineptitude at winning Big 10 MBB regular season championships is also quite impressive.

Their last shared title was a three-way tie in 1979 and their last outright title was more than a half century ago (1970).

Expect 90 Day Fiance GIF by TLC
 
#164      
fluke NCAA champions - when is our turn

--Michigan 1989 12-6 in B10 - interim coach Fisher. Nick grabs that air ball rebound and we go to finals
--NC State 1982 8-6 ACC - won ACC tournament to get into NCAA . Akeem grabs the airball rebound and Houston wins
- Villanova 1984 9-7 Big East. Shot 79% to upset Georgetown
Not sure that winning 6 games in a row would qualify as a "fluke". A one game stunner that resulted from a crazy set of events is a fluke. Someone, please correct me if I'm wrong, but Michigan was a #3 seed that year and had multiple NBA players on their roster, most notably Glen Rice. They won 30 games that year.

NC State won 26 games that year, won 10 in a row and beat UNC and Virginia twice. From February through April, they were 16-3. That's not a fluke.

Villanova won 25 games and were 10-2 down the stretch. In the NCAA Tournament, they best two #1 seeds(Michigan and Georgetown) and two #2 seeds(North Carolina and Memphis).

There's nothing flukey about those three teams. The common theme is that they all got better and peaked at the right time.

Our turn will be that when there is a golden opportunity (Loyola for example)....show up.
 
#165      
Iowa's ineptitude at winning Big 10 MBB regular season championships is also quite impressive.

Their last shared title was a three-way tie in 1979 and their last outright title was more than a half century ago (1970).

Expect 90 Day Fiance GIF by TLC
I was there then ... i remember one of their stars was Glen (stick) Vidnovic who was 6'8" and maybe 180. we had some high scoring games with them.
I remember when they held the ball for about three minutes because we had 98 points and they didn't want us get to 100-- and came back and beat us later in the year... Assembly hall was rocking back then....
 
#166      
Sure, it's just 5-10% of the season but game 1 and game 40 are not weighted equally.

Wooden, K, Smith, Knight aren't considered the greatest because of the games they won in January.

I have no qualms with Brad. Qualmless. But he still has something to prove.
You make great points and I agree with most. It's the weighted part that I'm not sure that I'm in full agreement with. For us last year, without games 4 and 9(UCLA and Texas), there is no game 32. A loss in game 1(Eastern Illinois ) and it's a true 50/50 whether we get to 32. You know what I mean? Without those two games last season, the criticism of him would be at a frenzy. Not getting into the second weekend is bothersome(obviously), however each win/loss does carry the same weight, one just ends the season, so it's more dramatic. Every team, but one, ends their season with a loss. It's the fun, yet harsh realities of a one and done.

So, I see where you're going, but I think that sometimes, we put too much weight into one game. The loss to UNC in 2005 felt a million times worse than the loss last year. Many(without looking) can't remember the team that we beat to get into the second weekend (I was there and still had to give it a quick thought).

The season is a domino effect and losing the last one sucks, but not sure the weight is different.Hope that ramble made sense.
 
#168      
Loyola was a top 10 team by all metrics disguised as an 8 seed. The opposite of a golden opportunity.
They were better than their seed, but we were still the better team and it was a terrible loss. A golden opportunity blown.

Houston and Arkansas OTOH were completely superior teams to us. People that criticize BU for those losses are ignorant as to how good those two teams were. And in 2022, how beat up we were. Our 2022 team, by tournament time, was the walking dead.
 
#169      
Loyola was a top 10 team by all metrics disguised as an 8 seed. The opposite of a golden opportunity.
That's a real stretch to go that far. That's a Loyola team that got beat the very next game to a #12 seeded Oregon State squad.

Illinois was a #1 seed (top overall seed in the tournament?). They should have won that game by double digits, instead, they lost by double digits.

Do you think that we should have lost the game?
 
#170      
A golden opportunity blown.

They sure blew it alright! I definitely didn't go into that game thinking of it as a golden opportunity, though, looking back. I knew how good Loyola was and being an in-state university, they were going to have quite the chip on their collective shoulders.

Bigger Picture for me: We were told its imperative that Brad advances in the tournament this year (cannot recall which one of our gracious more-plugged-in members it was, maybe more than one of them that said it). That's where I'm at, too. Our fanbase is hungry and we have top-10 money for someone else if this isn't working out.
 
#172      
That's a real stretch to go that far. That's a Loyola team that got beat the very next game to a #12 seeded Oregon State squad.

Illinois was a #1 seed (top overall seed in the tournament?). They should have won that game by double digits, instead, they lost by double digits.

Do you think that we should have lost the game?
We were outcoached in that game. Happens but don’t want to fire BU for it. Rather enjoy the victories on our way to a title than relive one loss.
 
#174      
i don't get the fixation on this artificial and mythical milestone of the Sweet 16 as an accomplishment. Championships matter. End of discussion. I'm pretty sure some of the more senior members here can name the National Champion from 1985, can anyone name the Sweet 16 teams from that year (without resorting to Google!)?

share discover GIF
 
#175      
That's a real stretch to go that far. That's a Loyola team that got beat the very next game to a #12 seeded Oregon State squad.

Illinois was a #1 seed (top overall seed in the tournament?). They should have won that game by double digits, instead, they lost by double digits.

Do you think that we should have lost the game?
I mean the spread was 7 points. Obviously "should" have won that game but it's not like we were favored by 15.
 
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