Looks like Piper put in a crystal ball for Illinois for Jase Butler on 247.
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread
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Do you have a single list of top 100 recruits older than 25 years?
Uconn has won 3 of the last 11, did they have a bunch of 5 stars? Caligari has only one at Kentucky with mostly 5 stars. The star level is appealing but not always the total value of a recruit.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
And again, 08-09 had the only one starter in the Top 100 (DMac) and went 24-10 and second in the B1G. Tisdale, Mike Davis, Chester, and Meacham were great pieces on that team and none were that highly ranked coming out of HS. Also, if not for Chester's unfortunate injury right before the tourney that was almost certainly a Sweet 16 team. He was the heart and soul of that team.
Can we put this to bed? In general, higher ranked recruits are going to perform better and you'd always rather have 5-stars vs. 3-stars. That doesn't mean every 5 star will end up being better than every 3 star, though, obviously, but pointing out the exceptions doesn't negate the rule. Generally, higher ranked prospects will perform better than lower ranked ones.
Having said that--w.r.t Illinois recruiting lately, I'd be more worried if Underwood was missing out on all his plan As and plan Bs and then having to settle for 3 star plan Cs. IMO that doesn't seem to be the case. He's picking out guys that he likes.
Odd headline.
247sports.com
Phoenix Gill says Iowa State among top college options after unofficial visit
Class of 2025 guard Phoenix Gill completed an unofficial visit to Iowa State on Saturday and said the Cyclones are one of his top three schools along with Northwestern and Stanford. Illinois is also recruiting the three-star prospect.
247sports.com
I agree that the Blue Bloods win at a higher clip than the average. But, my point is that if we stipulate the premise that players that are ranked as consensus 5 * guys are statistically better and achieve at a significantly higher rate than players ranked in tiers below them. Then, I posit only winning 10 out of the last 25 championships is underachieving when these teams don't just have 1 or 2 guys rated that high, but often have 5-6 guys who are rated that high.
Duke '13 ( 2 guys in top 25), '14 (3 guys in top 15), '15 (1 in the top 5 and 4 top 25), '16 (3 in the top 10 and 4 in the top 20), '17 (3 in the top 10 and 4 in the top 20), '18 ( 3 in top 10 and 4 in top 15), '19 ( 1 top 10 and 4 in top 40), '20 ( 4 guys top 25), '21 ( 3 guys top 25), '22 (3 guys top 5 and 5 guys top 25), '23 ( 4 guys top 25) - Last championship 2019.
UK '13 (5 guys top 10 and 6 top 25), '14 (1 top 5 and 4 top 25), '15 ( 2 top 10 and 3 top 25), '16 ( 2 top 10 and 5 in the top 25), '17 ( 6 guys in top 20), '18 (4 in top 20), ' 19 ( 3 in top 20), '20 ( 2 in the top 10), '21 ( 3 in top 20), '22 ( 2 in the top 20), '23 ( 3 in the top 10 and 4 in top 25) - Last Championship 2012
Kansas '13 ( 3 guys in top 15 and 4 top 30), '14 (2 in top 5 and 3 top 30), '15 (1 top 5 and 3 top 30), '16 ( # 1 player and 2 in top 40), '17 (1 top 25), '18 (2 in top 25 and 3 in top 40), '19 ( 2 in top 50), '20 ( 1 in top 20 and #2 JUCO transfer), '21 (Best recruit was #73 + JCL and Remy Martin as transfers), '22 ( 1 in top 25 and 3 in top 35) - Last championship was 2022, but before that 2008.
My point is that they always have a glut of talent and yet don't win as much as one would expect with the level of talent that they always seem to have!
Odd headline.
Phoenix Gill says Iowa State among top college options after unofficial visit
Class of 2025 guard Phoenix Gill completed an unofficial visit to Iowa State on Saturday and said the Cyclones are one of his top three schools along with Northwestern and Stanford. Illinois is also recruiting the three-star prospect.
Does Alec Busse switch who he writes for every month ?
Also - Stanford offered Phoenix 3 days ago … He does really like Iowa State … Kendall would not be able to live with himself if his kid went to NW over Illinois …
So in conclusion …
What about 151... Heard that guy sucks
It should probably be noted that Kansas won it in 2022 with zero 5* recruits on their roster. Ironically their highest recruit per 247 was Jalen Coleman-Lands at #36 followed by David McCormick at #40.
In fairness JCL was 39 years old. Wise and seasoned.
Also I just threw up reading that Kansas won the championship and their highest recruit was ours
Can we say this?
Higher ranked recruits generally have a higher rate of success in college and professional leagues than lower ranked recruits. We all know there are some 5 stars that bust and some 3 stars that become all-time greats.
Off-topic:
The truth is you can't predict class balance any longer, so you fill your roster with the best talent you can find. In my opinion, the portal should be reserved for guys to fill in where needed, not to overhaul your roster every year. The cycle perpetuates itself once it begins. Bring in preps, get guys in portal, preps lose minutes and leave. So now you need more guys out of the portal who take minutes from new preps who leave. No grassroots growth and lack of roster continuity in the program makes culture difficult to keep.
I'd 100% give Brad a couple of years to build this back from the ground up to regain the culture, but his job hunting and lack of post season success have shortened his leash considerably. As long as he needs to win to keep his job, this will be our new reality. Trying to catch lightning in a bottle like Jerry Reinsdorf and Kenny Williams did for 10+ years after they won the World Series. Except we aren't getting Ayo or Kofi in the portal just more Adam Dunn's.
Higher ranked recruits generally have a higher rate of success in college and professional leagues than lower ranked recruits. We all know there are some 5 stars that bust and some 3 stars that become all-time greats.
Off-topic:
The truth is you can't predict class balance any longer, so you fill your roster with the best talent you can find. In my opinion, the portal should be reserved for guys to fill in where needed, not to overhaul your roster every year. The cycle perpetuates itself once it begins. Bring in preps, get guys in portal, preps lose minutes and leave. So now you need more guys out of the portal who take minutes from new preps who leave. No grassroots growth and lack of roster continuity in the program makes culture difficult to keep.
I'd 100% give Brad a couple of years to build this back from the ground up to regain the culture, but his job hunting and lack of post season success have shortened his leash considerably. As long as he needs to win to keep his job, this will be our new reality. Trying to catch lightning in a bottle like Jerry Reinsdorf and Kenny Williams did for 10+ years after they won the World Series. Except we aren't getting Ayo or Kofi in the portal just more Adam Dunn's.
Does Alec Busse switch who he writes for every month ?
Also - Stanford offered Phoenix 3 days ago … He does really like Iowa State … Kendall would not be able to live with himself if his kid went to NW over Illinois …
So in conclusion …
Actually, no we don't know how this ends.
Is Illinois making him a priority? Does Phoenix feel like they are? We'll see.
You need some decent players for practice if nothing else and sometimes a 50-100 recruit turns out great.
band camp
- STL City
JCL MD
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
Of course I know all of what you're saying. My response was to someone who asked to provide an example of a good Illini team of the last 40 years that had a starting lineup of mostly non Top 100 players. I provided said example. Come to think of it 97-98 might be another example though hs rankings are very tough to find from before 1998.
That '08-'09 team... I was certain that team was going to make an NCAA tourney run as long as the refs let us play defense. Chester was just nails and for him to get a season ending injury right before the BTT to end his college career? Heartbreaking. Also, consider that that team should have had Senior Year Jamar Smith on it... That team could've gone far. Just sad for so many reasons. Woulda coulda shoulda, right? Sigh...
I mean, sure, it is possible to have an above-average team with all 3 stars. But, why are we even discussing that? We have 3 guys right now.... THREE... 4 if we land Butler. We'd have to then cycle out all 8 or 9 or however many of our 4 stars and then just replace them all with 3 stars before we are talking about a team made up of all 3 stars. I can't believe I am even posting this, but hey, its being discussed, so...?
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
I miss Mike Davis. Or even a Mike Davis-like player. Who's our best recent Mike Davis comparo?
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
None recently. Hoping it will be Hansberry, but that remains to be seen.
I think the difference between being rated 80th and 120th is pretty minor. Did you hit that one extra shot, or make a nice play in the game they were watching vs. the one earlier in the day that they missed? I'd rather have the 120th who is trending up than the 80th who is trending down. That kid at 120th is also probably easier on the bank. I don't know where the expectation to be paid falls off.
If we were recruiting multiple recruits in the 160+ range, then I'd really wonder. Either our recruiters are savants, or there are other problems.
You really don't.
I'm not saying 50-100 recruits don't turn out great. They leave before they can turn out in today's world
Tacomallini
- Washington State
I don't think so. We're in a new era of college basketball with the transfer portal and NIL that makes this debate murkier than ever. There's a lot of coaches that would rather recruit a jr/sr who out-performed their ranking, knows their role, and has some character to fall back on, than a top 50 hs senior, who has NBA level potential, but still has substantial risk because if they under-perform for more than a few games, their camp will be in their ear blaming the coach and shopping them around before the season's even over. I'd love to see a stat on roster turnover by year, but I think people have backed into a number somewhere between 4 and 5 transfers being typical. Like it or not, the sport is moving more and more towards moneyball and value, and less towards the development and scouting of the past. Coaches don't care about "on average", even if we as fans love to see the program landing high potential/rated players for the reasons you mention.
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