Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#128      
IMPE Legend
the juiceman cometh said:
I'm honestly not even that sure the NBA would care that much, assuming they can have a similar rule for NCAA players they do for international players, in that whoever drafted you retains your rights when you do eventually come to the NBA.
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Those kids are drafted with the intention of stashing them. You don't see any first round picks drafted with that intention. Because it doesn't make sense to spend the first pick on Cooper Flagg for him to just go back to Duke. Or for Wemby to decide after the fact that they wanted to take a year on campus somewhere. those are extremes, but there is too much money on the line for the NBA to waste guaranteed money and see them go back to school And it actually would hurt NCAA players as well. Older guys like Shannon would never have been drafted at all if teams could just take a flier on a freshman.
 
#130      
BackThatPassUp
matt1all said:
KJ/lottery picks: It makes no sense to come back. 4M is equivalent to the 13th pick in the draft. But if you stay in college you could also be losing out on $ by not be able to hit your rookie extension until a year later (if you are a hit in the league. and every lottery pick thinks they are gonna get extended). Or you could get hurt, or play poorly, or stay the same and be another year older. All bad. You aren't going to jump Dybantsa and the Boozer into the top 3-5 picks. The theoretical number is too high it would hamstring the whole operation.

JT Toppin/Fringe 1st rounders: 4M becomes a lot more enticing if you are projected at pick 30 (2M/year is best case scenario) and you realize getting extended is a bit of a longshot. So you can take the 4M this year, get drafted at the 2M/year next year and you may actually be extending your high earning period.

Will Riley/mid to late firsts: 20th spot earns 2.8M. and GMs dont like giving up on top 20 selections they make for job preservation purposes so your extension odds also increase.... And his stock could take a hit because he will be over 20 years old at the 2026 draft (Ancient for NBA GMs). Probably too much downside risk for Will IMO. Now if he slides into the pick 30-35 range.... maybe there is a # that makes sense in the 4M range like toppin?

TLDR: If you are a first round lock you go -- KJ is and it seems like Will is trending there. Dame Sarr your table is ready.
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This is precisely the message. Not only because you have the guaranteed salary for next year but you get two additional years of guaranteed money. Even if you only make the 2.8 next year, there's a guarantee to compound that for an additional $6M the next two years. Not to mention, GMs are much more likely to be invested in your success and give you a chance to be value add if you're a first-round pick versus a second-round pick.
 
#131      
Illini034
We just need to purchase a few Gold Cards at 5 mil each

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#132      
HailtotheChief
matt1all said:
KJ/lottery picks: It makes no sense to come back. 4M is equivalent to the 13th pick in the draft. But if you stay in college you could also be losing out on $ by not be able to hit your rookie extension until a year later (if you are a hit in the league. and every lottery pick thinks they are gonna get extended). Or you could get hurt, or play poorly, or stay the same and be another year older. All bad. You aren't going to jump Dybantsa and the Boozer into the top 3-5 picks. The theoretical number is too high it would hamstring the whole operation.

JT Toppin/Fringe 1st rounders: 4M becomes a lot more enticing if you are projected at pick 30 (2M/year is best case scenario) and you realize getting extended is a bit of a longshot. So you can take the 4M this year, get drafted at the 2M/year next year and you may actually be extending your high earning period.

Will Riley/mid to late firsts: 20th spot earns 2.8M. and GMs dont like giving up on top 20 selections they make for job preservation purposes so your extension odds also increase.... And his stock could take a hit because he will be over 20 years old at the 2026 draft (Ancient for NBA GMs). Probably too much downside risk for Will IMO. Now if he slides into the pick 30-35 range.... maybe there is a # that makes sense in the 4M range like toppin?

TLDR: If you are a first round lock you go -- KJ is and it seems like Will is trending there. Dame Sarr your table is ready.
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It will be interesting since it seems Will had a broad range of projections about when he will be selected. I've seen anywhere from 16th to 38th. It seems like players drop more in recent years with more and more international players being picked that may not be on most draft boards. Will has a difficult decision.
 
#133      
Emerson Bigguns
BackThatPassUp said:
This is precisely the message. Not only because you have the guaranteed salary for next year but you get two additional years of guaranteed money. Even if you only make the 2.8 next year, there's a guarantee to compound that for an additional $6M the next two years. Not to mention, GMs are much more likely to be invested in your success and give you a chance to be value add if you're a first-round pick versus a second-round pick.
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This. Second round picks are throw-aways. If one pops, and pans out, great. They get passed around like a Pruman hand-rolled cigarette at a frat party.

GM reputations are made and broken with 1st round picks. Miss on too many and you are out on the street
 
#134      
sacraig
RabidDawgClassic said:
So given that Toppin has spurned the NBA draft for a $4 million return to college, this must beg the question: what’s the cost of a Riley package to return? How about KJ? The foundation has been set… surely there’s a number that would catch their eyes.
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Didn't you get the memo? KJ isn't athletic enough for a deep tourney run.

text conversation GIF
 
#137      
the juiceman cometh
IMPE Legend said:
Those kids are drafted with the intention of stashing them. You don't see any first round picks drafted with that intention. Because it doesn't make sense to spend the first pick on Cooper Flagg for him to just go back to Duke. Or for Wemby to decide after the fact that they wanted to take a year on campus somewhere. those are extremes, but there is too much money on the line for the NBA to waste guaranteed money and see them go back to school And it actually would hurt NCAA players as well. Older guys like Shannon would never have been drafted at all if teams could just take a flier on a freshman.
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Right, but that's kind of exactly how it works with international picks too. The guys that get picked early are coming over right away. It's the guys picked late first round or 2nd round who keep playing in Europe. Wemby is a great example. He didn't spend an additional year in Europe. He came right away. And the Spurs may not have drafted him if there was any possibility he would stay in France. NCAA money is still not enough to actually compete with NBA lottery pick money. Nobody that gets picked in the lottery is going back to college, and in the process making an enemy of their future employer. The only guys that would do this are those that get picked later in the draft. And NBA teams would love that. Why pay this dude for a year he's not going to contribute anyway? Let that college team do it, and we get him on the same rookie deal a year older and more developed. Not saying it's a good policy. Just saying the NBA probably wouldn't mind. In a lot of ways it's the same thinking for why the NBA stopped allowing kids to declare right out of high school.
 
#138      
csd
RabidDawgClassic said:
The only flaw I see in this plan would be the delay in roster construction, waiting to see if your NBA draftee will stay in the league or come back. But otherwise, I’d be all for this.
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NBA would fight that to the death.
 
#140      
HensonHall71
Heisenbobble said:
Rumors of over $3M for Jackson.
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Not that it's my money, but from a roster construction standpoint, I think it makes sense to spend that on Jackson. I think he makes a big jump his sophomore year, so I'd rather spend that on a big upside guy rather than a senior more limited upside/maybe some downside like Watkins and I'm sure Watkins will cost over $3M as well. Here is their per 100 possessions last year for Watkins senior year vs. Jackson's freshman year and we know Jackson wasn't utilized heavily

FGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%2P%eFG%FT%TRBASTSTLBLKTOVPTSORtgDRtg
Wakins
10.2​
23.9​
0.43​
3.0​
9.5​
0.32​
0.50​
0.49​
0.75​
10.5​
4.4​
2.2​
1.0​
4.9​
33.9​
109.3​
103.0​
Jackson
10.0​
21.8​
0.46​
4.0​
10.0​
0.40​
0.51​
0.55​
0.72​
6.4​
2.1​
1.3​
0.5​
2.9​
28.4​
111.5​
109.9​

I think the bottom row will get a whole lot better this coming year and the top row will stay the same, that's why I'd rather spend the money on the bottom row
 
#142      
grue2
BackThatPassUp said:
This is precisely the message. Not only because you have the guaranteed salary for next year but you get two additional years of guaranteed money. Even if you only make the 2.8 next year, there's a guarantee to compound that for an additional $6M the next two years. Not to mention, GMs are much more likely to be invested in your success and give you a chance to be value add if you're a first-round pick versus a second-round pick.
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I'm 99% sure that first round NBA draft contracts only guarantee the first 2 years, with years 3 and 4 being team options.
 
#146      
BackThatPassUp
grue2 said:
I'm 99% sure that first round NBA draft contracts only guarantee the first 2 years, with years 3 and 4 being team options.
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Yes that is correct. Forgive me for I am old sometimes forget there are only team options for the 3rd and 4th year and no longer 10 rounds in the draft.
 
#147      
ptgrd23
attactiveness of NBA also depends on who is going to draft you

TSJ got buried on bench by Finalist Timberwolves. If he goes mid first round to

Jazz 10
Bulls 11
Trailblazers 14
Heat 15
Lakers 18

instead of Timberwolves 27 he might be seeing a lot more playing time.

Nobody wants to go to G-league

If Will does poorly at draft camp and ends up at end of first round, compared to coming back to Illinois next year and being lottery pick - that is an interesting choice.

Will did not light it up from 3 point. His last 10 game sure was really based on cutting or driving to hoop and scoring from short range against smaller players. MIght not work in draft camp because A) nobody passes B) if there is a 7 ft shotblocker on the floor he will swat Will's shot.

JMO - I would rather get $2M-$3m to stay one more year at Illinois then go to G-league.
 
#148      
New Creation
So Morez is projected to play the 5 ? So my question is, why did he really transfer? Has to only be money and the parents. Brad is quick to flush and player that has parents like morez’s and the plenty of players before him.

Ps. ESPN projects Michigan a top 5 team

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#149      
the juiceman cometh
ptgrd23 said:
Will did not light it up from 3 point. His last 10 game sure was really based on cutting or driving to hoop and scoring from short range against smaller players. MIght not work in draft camp because A) nobody passes B) if there is a 7 ft shotblocker on the floor he will swat Will's shot.

JMO - I would rather get $2M-$3m to stay one more year at Illinois then go to G-league.
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I don't think it was as bad as you imply, and I don't think NBA teams will be to concerned about his 3pt shooting this season. He got better as the season went on and by the end was a good shooter. First 20 games his 3pt% was 31.3% and overall FG% was 37.9%. Last 15. 3pt% 34.4% and FG% 48.1%. Combine that with his track record in the prep ranks an effective 3-level scorer and I think NBA teams are comfortable with his ability there.
 
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