Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

#777      
I'm just waiting for the annual "since we're gonna go 10 deep in the rotation, Brad should just switch out all 5 hockey-line style" comments
I don't think it could necessarily work the way the modern game is reffed and with how many guys can shoot now but I would love to see a team try to bring back the Nolan Richardson 40 minutes of hell style and that would be interesting to see on a team that did hockey style line changes to keep guys fresh.

I think you would also probably have to adjust and limit the trapping or choose specific situations to trap in but Ive always thought watching the teams that play extremely differently like that was fun.

The biggest problem might be finding 10 kids that want to press for 40 minutes and the length/athleticism needed to do that.
 
#778      
Arizona’s 5th leading scoring Kharchenkov was a freshman 4 star recruit. Michigan’s 5th leading scorer was a freshman ranked 21st. Our leading scorer was a freshman ranked 150th.
Sure, there are a bunch of 4-star recruits and some of them end up being good. What you want to know is how likely is it that X player(s) can fill the role(s) you collectively need them to fill

That's what I aimed to look at here, showing that last year's #24-30 guys weren't that impressive (McKenney was #18, so not in that range). That sample size is obviously small (I don't have time to do that for multiple seasons and/or to generate a smoothed probability across the entire range of rankings), so it doesn't say anything with much certainty, but it may be a good reality check. There's still the very important question of whether a particular team's talent evaluation is better/worse than the online recruiting ranking sites, and I'd like to think we've done a very good job finding talent outside the top 20. And maybe Morillo ends up being "the guy" over Coleman this year- it's good we have multiple chances at hitting on someone, though a top portal player or top 10 recruit might on paper have an even better chance.
 
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#779      
UCLA and Louisville put all their eggs into the Blackwell basket.

They are in deep trouble now, exactly why Illinois pursued and closed on Vaaks and QC.
That's too bad.

College Basketball Sport GIF by NCAA March Madness


Glad we have a winning operation in Brad and Co. They know how to get a roster created in this era of college basketball.
 
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#781      
The last 15 days on the Loyalty board.

INSIDERS: We’ve got money and we’re going hard after Vaaks and Blackwell. It looks promising. But retention is the top priority.

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Boom! We got Vaaks!

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Pushing very hard for Blackwell. We’ve got the money. But retention first.

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Boom! The “Triplets” are back! Ironing out details with Andrej. Blackwell still in the mix.

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Boom! Andrej’s back!

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Looks like we’re out of the Blackwell sweepstakes. I’m guessing you can figure out why.

LOYALTY: What?!? Why?!?

INSIDERS: Come on. Figure it out.

LOYALTY: ???

INSIDERS: Think about it.

LOYALTY: ???????

INSIDERS: ((sigh)) Blackwell backed off the day Andrej returned? Get it?

LOYALTY: So we’re broke?!?!

INSIDERS: ((sigh)) No… money is not a problem.

LOYALTY: So we’re just sitting on a pile of money?!? Can’t the coaches count???

INSIDERS: Yes, they can count. We’ll likely add more. Just not right away.

LOYALTY: So we’re gonna go into the season only eight deep?

INSIDERS: No, I said… ((facepalm)) ((sigh)). All is fine.

LOYALTY: I know what that means! All is NOT fine! PANIC!!! PANIC!!!

INSIDERS: Relax! Look… the staff knows who they want and what they’re looking for.

LOYALTY: Okay then… here’s a list of 40 players, all of whom would be a good fit and are desperately needed.

INSIDERS: You’re not gonna get any of those guys to come in and play backup to the backup.

LOYALTY: But you promised us a superteam!!!

INSIDERS: I’m getting too old for this sh*t.
ME TODAY: Yay! Superteam!
 
#782      
The last 15 days on the Loyalty board.

INSIDERS: We’ve got money and we’re going hard after Vaaks and Blackwell. It looks promising. But retention is the top priority.

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Boom! We got Vaaks!

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Pushing very hard for Blackwell. We’ve got the money. But retention first.

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Boom! The “Triplets” are back! Ironing out details with Andrej. Blackwell still in the mix.

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Boom! Andrej’s back!

LOYALTY: Yay! Superteam!

INSIDERS: Looks like we’re out of the Blackwell sweepstakes. I’m guessing you can figure out why.

LOYALTY: What?!? Why?!?

INSIDERS: Come on. Figure it out.

LOYALTY: ???

INSIDERS: Think about it.

LOYALTY: ???????

INSIDERS: ((sigh)) Blackwell backed off the day Andrej returned? Get it?

LOYALTY: So we’re broke?!?!

INSIDERS: ((sigh)) No… money is not a problem.

LOYALTY: So we’re just sitting on a pile of money?!? Can’t the coaches count???

INSIDERS: Yes, they can count. We’ll likely add more. Just not right away.

LOYALTY: So we’re gonna go into the season only eight deep?

INSIDERS: No, I said… ((facepalm)) ((sigh)). All is fine.

LOYALTY: I know what that means! All is NOT fine! PANIC!!! PANIC!!!

INSIDERS: Relax! Look… the staff knows who they want and what they’re looking for.

LOYALTY: Okay then… here’s a list of 40 players, all of whom would be a good fit and are desperately needed.

INSIDERS: You’re not gonna get any of those guys to come in and play backup to the backup.

LOYALTY: But you promised us a superteam!!!

INSIDERS: I’m getting too old for this sh*t.
Lot's of straw man arguments being made on this thread. The people that were dissappointed that blackwell didn't come here were hoping we had a chance to be preseason #1, which hasn't happened in a long time, if ever. I don't think any of those people are saying the team isn't good. It's just going to be preseason #5 or so, not #1.

The response has been "some people think that right now illinois is the best team". Which is not the same thing as being preseason #1. I'd be willing to bet anyone that wants to that illinois will not be preseason #1. Doesn't make it a bad offseason, but also doesn't make it what people were getting excited about a couple weeks ago. It can both be true that it was a good offseason and not the "best" offseason possible. Blackwell is gonna go to Duke now (it seems, which isn't surprising) where he is going to have a similar non-A#1 role he would have had here. This is a similar story to last year with Sarr, a couple years ago with Storr, etc. That doesn't mean it is a bad offseason, but a fan has a right to be not happy about a recruit picking some other team.

I personally don't even think Blackwell is that great, so I'm not worried about it. But i also doubt very much that illinois will be the favorite to win the national championship at any point next year. Which doesn't mean we can't win the championship, but it has shown again that we are not a top tier program in the truest sense of the word (in the tier with Duke, UConn, Kansas, and despite their current issues UNC and Kentucky).
 
#784      
What other teams have done this? We're one of the very few teams in the portal era to return almost all of our core players from a Final 4 roster. It's much easier to sell an experienced player on coming to a team and earning his minutes when the entire roster is new.
Yeah, I suppose it's easier for teams like Duke to "overbook" many top freshman than it is to bring in a top transfer to potentially have to compete for time/usage. Please nobody take this as a gripe or doomerism, but it sure would be nice to bring in one/many top-10 freshman too. That's also mostly how Arizona reloaded/upgraded.

And (as ChiefGritty pointed out), there are plenty of super-teams on paper that fail spectacularly, so this isn't Fantasy sports- roster fit and coaching are huge.

But Michigan convinced Yaxel to join after also convincing two returning starters (admittedly not as good as ours), a #18 freshman, and four solid transfers (not super highly ranked, but the 247 ratings would've put three in the top 20 and the fourth top 40 this year). I know Michigan wasn't a preseason favorite last year (#5 in preseason odds), so there's absolutely hindsight bias risk that this is a good/reliable way to build a roster, but it's certainly an example where a lot of guys probably could have felt entitled to the same minutes. Do we think they over-promised, paid huge $, or just found a unique group willing to make sacrifices? Much has been said about Yaxel sacrificing usage, but the seven others also committed to some sharing/competition even before he joined, and they didn't seem to have issues sacrificing further after he joined, at least not that affected the results.

I don't have time to look at prior years. I was hoping someone would chime in with an opinion if any of those are relevant.
 
#785      
I pray and hope Mara (likely gone) and Morez (potentially moving closer to the lottery) leave. They won a championship on a dominant team. The team is essentially trading in Yaxel for McCoy. One injury and they forgo millions in guaranteed income.
The news of Haugh coming back to Florida should be more reason for Mara and Morez to stay in the draft. All three players were/are projected first round and now one of them (Haugh) is off the board and returning back to his school, Mara's and Morez's stock should climb up the board in the first round even more. Just my take.
 
#786      
But I thought Blackwell wanted to play for a winner?
It was pretty easy to clock early on that Glynn Blackwell wanted his son to play for his alma mater and John Blackwell wanted to be a Dookie.

I am not the Dookie type, personally, but they don't lose many battles for kids that have that spark of interest in their whole schtick.

UCLA and Louisville put all their eggs into the Blackwell basket.

They are in deep trouble now, exactly why Illinois pursued and closed on Vaaks and QC.
We are playing the (extremely strong) hand we've been dealt as well as we possibly can.
 
#788      
I think some feel there's an imaginary line between "playable" and "unplayable". As if after Z, Drej, and Ben there was no one who was capable to get on the court.
I think Brandon Lee was absolutely capable to give you minutes, but Brad has an 8-man rotation, and outside of foul trouble/injury, that's what he's gonna stick with.
If he was capable, then he would’ve seen the court. The 9th man usually sees the court.

2025 — Jake Davis; 9th man, appeared in 32 games, averaged 3 points per game in 9.5 minutes.

2024 — DGL; 9th man, appeared in 28 games, averaged 2.4 points in 7.1 minutes.

2023 — Luke Goode was the 9th man; 10 games, 13.8min, 4 points per game (his first game was in February since he was hurt in the offseason). When Skyy Clark was playing, we didn’t have Goode… and when Goode was playing we didn’t have Skyy… but we played 9 deep in each of those timeframes.

2022 — we literally played 11 deep. The 8th-11th guys were Goode / Bosmans / Payne / Melendez. All of them played over 7mpg and appeared in most games.

TLDR; if you’re the 9th man at Illinois, you’ll usually see the court. Won’t be gaudy numbers, but you’ll see the court. This past season was the outlier because the staff didn’t feel comfortable with either Lee or Petrovic.

As it currently stands, Ethan Brown is the guy in that spot, so hopefully he’s more reliable than Lee / Petrovic.
 
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#789      
UCLA and Louisville put all their eggs into the Blackwell basket.

They are in deep trouble now, exactly why Illinois pursued and closed on Vaaks and QC.
I am assuming Blackwell is going to Duke but why? Duke is returning Caleb Foster & Cayden Boozer, two top guards. In addition, they are bringing in one of the top high school guards this year in Deron Rippley. In fact Rippley is so good he won the Morgan Wootton award for top high school player in the country this year. I realize Duke wants depth but why would Blackwell want to go there? If Blackwell wants to play in the NBA he can only play as a point guard and Duke is already loaded at point guard for next year. Louisville seems his best landing spot.
 
#791      
the transfers aren't as good overall, and the recruits aren't as high end compared to last year in terms of the elites.
The very-non-scientific 247 ratings concur:

Last year's 247 #3-10 transfers are rated the same as this year's #1-5. Last year's #22-34 are the same as this year's #8-10. This year's #23 is rated lower than last year's #50.

And last year's 247 #1-3 recruits are rated higher than all of this year's. Last year's #10-15 are the same as this year's #2-15. After that, though, things look more comparable.
 
#792      
The post just says lower his minutes. Davis counts. If Morillo counts this year Davis counts last year.

Davis proved he could be playable on the 25 team. Brown hasn’t proven that. Outside of Wagler - which will never happen again - who’s the last freshmen outside the top 100 to get real minutes here? We saw it with Lee, it ain’t easy (and quite the gamble to be counting on it).
Lower his minutes from 10? To what, 5? 7? We counting that as rotation? How do you know Morillo plays that little?
 
#793      
I dunno man... this Florida team is legitimately stacked.


Yup, just like they were coming into last season...

and Purdue...

and Houston...

etcetera

Way to early to be shouting out Super Teams, imo

Anyway aren't we talking about Todd Golden potentially being the Warriors coach now? If so, Florida gets their very own 30-day portal window

EDIT: Aberdeen isn't a done deal (needs 5th year eligibility) and our roster looks every bit as good as that one does tbh

EDIT 2: They only have like 6 playable guys? And that's if Aberdeen gets another year... they have no recruits coming in... so I'm going to have to ask why Florida looks 'legitimately stacked' unless they're just going to play their top 5 all 40 minutes every game
 
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#794      
I am assuming Blackwell is going to Duke but why? Duke is returning Caleb Foster & Cayden Boozer, two top guards. In addition, they are bringing in one of the top high school guards this year in Deron Rippley. In fact Rippley is so good he won the Morgan Wootton award for top high school player in the country this year. I realize Duke wants depth but why would Blackwell want to go there? If Blackwell wants to play in the NBA he can only play as a point guard and Duke is already loaded at point guard for next year. Louisville seems his best landing spot.
Because he wants a chance to win championship...not happening at UCLA or Louisville.
 
#795      
If he was capable, then he would’ve seen the court. The 9th man usually sees the court.

2025 — Jake Davis; 9th man, appeared in 32 games, averaged 3 points per game in 9.5 minutes.

2024 — DGL; 9th man, appeared in 28 games, averaged 2.4 points in 7.1 minutes.

2023 — Luke Goode was the 9th man; 10 games, 13.8min, 4 points per game (his first game was in February since he was hurt in the offseason). When Skyy Clark was playing, we didn’t have Goode… and when Goode was playing we didn’t have Skyy… but we played 9 deep in each of those timeframes.

2022 — we literally played 11 deep. The 8th-11th guys were Goode / Bosmans / Payne / Melendez. All of them played over 7mpg and appeared in most games.

TLDR; if you’re the 9th man at Illinois, you’ll usually see the court. Won’t be gaudy numbers, but you’ll see the court. This past season was the outlier because the staff didn’t feel comfortable with either Lee or Petrovic.

As it currently stands, Ethan Brown is the guy in that spot, so hopefully he’s more reliable than Lee / Petrovic.
So basically Brown just needs to be as good as DGL was in 2024? That’s all for all the “9th man” talk?
 
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#796      
If he was capable, then he would’ve seen the court. The 9th man usually sees the court.

2025 — Jake Davis; 9th man, appeared in 32 games, averaged 3 points per game in 9.5 minutes.

2024 — DGL; 9th man, appeared in 28 games, averaged 2.4 points in 7.1 minutes.

2023 — Luke Goode was the 9th man; 10 games, 13.8min, 4 points per game (his first game was in February since he was hurt in the offseason). When Skyy Clark was playing, we didn’t have Goode… and when Goode was playing we didn’t have Skyy… but we played 9 deep in each of those timeframes.

2022 — we literally played 11 deep. The 8th-11th guys were Goode / Bosmans / Payne / Melendez. All of them played over 7mpg and appeared in most games.

TLDR; if you’re the 9th man at Illinois, you’ll usually see the court. Won’t be gaudy numbers, but you’ll see the court. This past season was the outlier because the staff didn’t feel comfortable with either Lee or Petrovic.

As it currently stands, Ethan Brown is the guy in that spot, so hopefully he’s more reliable than Lee / Petrovic.

Just totally disagree. So you’re saying Podz wasn’t “capable” to play his freshmen year?

It seems far more likely to me Podz was behind 2 5th year seniors who Brad felt extremely comfortable with (and who we won with). I find it hard to believe he went from not capable of playing at all, to first round nba pick in less than a year.

Brandon Lee was behind Kylan Boswell, Keaton Wagler, Andrej and Jake - I know some of you are committed to the Jake is only a forward thing, but he had minutes with Keaton, Andrej/ben, mirk/ben, and Ivisic, so call it whatever position you want, he was taking up valuable minutes because he was highly productive and efficient.

Denim Wojick played over 5 minutes a game at MSU - he averaged .5 points on 28% shooting, and poor defense. If he was “capable” of stepping on the court, Brandon Lee I think was, but just didn’t make sense to stretch out the rotation that far because the 4 guys I mentioned above had it down just fine
 
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#798      
Because he wants a chance to win championship...not happening at UCLA or Louisville.
That's the paradox. If it was usage/PT, wouldn't he also cross off Duke? If it was to win a natty, wouldn't he have crossed off UCLA/UL instead of us? Maybe it was just $$ after all?

It's also been sounding more like the other guys we signed might have instead looked elsewhere if we had signed Blackwell, and we (rightfully so) chose to lock down what we could rather than risk losing out on more than just him. That was probably wise, but it also makes Blackwell out to be much less of a ball hog in this saga.
 
#800      
I am assuming Blackwell is going to Duke but why? Duke is returning Caleb Foster & Cayden Boozer, two top guards. In addition, they are bringing in one of the top high school guards this year in Deron Rippley. In fact Rippley is so good he won the Morgan Wootton award for top high school player in the country this year. I realize Duke wants depth but why would Blackwell want to go there? If Blackwell wants to play in the NBA he can only play as a point guard and Duke is already loaded at point guard for next year. Louisville seems his best landing spot.
Plus Sarr but he is wing/ G. Doubt if Evens returns. But it is crowded at guard…. someone aint getting the minutes and wont be happy.
 
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