lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
He’s fast, but not Ben Fast.In the spirit of the….ahem…Illini Hoops Recruiting Thread…here is a montage of Tom Cruise running.
He’s fast, but not Ben Fast.In the spirit of the….ahem…Illini Hoops Recruiting Thread…here is a montage of Tom Cruise running.
They are the #2 recruiting class. You can't just ignore the transfers. Thats part of recruiting.They do have a highly ranked freshman class coming in as you said (its 4th not 2nd though). Their class is also ranked so highly due to the way they rank the classes... having more recruits weights your ranking, so having 6 freshman coming in gives them a higher 'score'... really only one of those freshman is someone I'd expect to have a major contribution in McCoy. Couple other fringe top 50 kids, but as we know those are rarely big difference makers as freshmen. How good can we expect them to be when half of their roster are freshmen?
Now that we've established their 2nd ranked recruiting class is actually 4th and that there isn't much production expected to come from said recruiting class, lets look at the transfers:
Mara is projected around the end of the lottery. Is the guy coming in (Thiam) as good as Mara? Doubtful.
Morez is projected mid-to-late first round. Can we expect J.P. Estrella to be as good as Morez was for them? Yikes.
Lendeborg was the B1G POY and projected to go in the late top 10. How does Jalen Reed (I know... who?) slot in as a replacement? Sheesh.
Then you have two super senior guards in Burnett & Gayle. They have McKenney & McCoy to replace them, who are good players, but have 9 years less CBB experience than the Burnett/Gayle combo did.
Cason is out for the season.
I see them as a top 15/20 team as they sit right now. Maybe they add someone significant, but I think they're at 14 or 15 players so I'm going to doubt that happens as well.
Final note just to circle back to the freshman class ranking -- only one of the F4 teams from last year had a top 10 class (Arizona). Michigan and Illinois had freshman recruiting classes ranked 30th and 34th, respectively.
The "leap" forward was regarding the individual players taking a leap forward this year, not the Michigan front court from last year to this year. I would expect those players to have better years this year than they did last year with one more year of experience and more talent around them. I don't think thats too far fetched.I seriously doubt they take leaps forward. I look for Michigan's frontcourt to be a level or two lower this year. Especially considering the gaurds and wings they have returning. They are going to want their time in the spotlight.
My wife says the same thing.You could say that about any player his age.
In fact, why stop at just 3 inches?
We’re just not in the same realm as Duke or Florida, as it stands preseason, in terms of defensive upside and superior top-end talent. Our roster is very talented, but those two are in a tier of their own at the moment.
I think #3 is the highest ranking for us that’s justifiable.
Not saying #3 isnt correct, but CJ Moore of The Athletic has us #1 currently.I agree 100%. Our fans almost alway overrate our talent. Duke and probably Florida are straight up more talented teams
That doesn't mean we aren't a legitimate threat to win it all. if we are relatively lucky with injuries and our players match the chemistry of last year's team, we can equal or even improve on last year's results.
Florida. IMOSo what I've gathered from this thread lately;
Ben is beginning training to be an Olympic distance runner
Duke and Michigan are hands down favorites to win the NC.
Tom Cruise likes to run.
In other news, I'm hosting a pizza and cottage cheese party and am desperate for recommendations.
All of this. Additionally, Yaxel is nearly impossible to replace. Length, athleticism, the ability to guard 1-5…Absolutely. If you're one of the top 10 or so most talented teams (which we are), you have a legit chance to win it all. After that, how the team plays together is key. And of course it takes some luck - both with injuries and with tournament draw.
Agree- I know our defense is a clear weakness on paper but holy cow Batman, Michigan lost the best defensive front out in the country and replaced them with good players but not nearly the same caliber nor experience- Yaxel was their superpowerPer usual, answer is probably somewhere in the middle.
If it’s not 3 lottery picks, it’s 3 first round picks with one or two close to fringe lotto picks. And while McCoy might be a higher pick than Yaxel one was a 24 year old man and the other a kid - kinda like comparing Chris Cenac to Yaxel.
They’ll be really good again tho
Your bruehaha could use some pineapple. Great combo food with pizza or cottage cheese.So what I've gathered from this thread lately;
Ben is beginning training to be an Olympic distance runner
Duke and Michigan are hands down favorites to win the NC.
Tom Cruise likes to run.
In other news, I'm hosting a pizza and cottage cheese party and am desperate for recommendations.
I’m guessing it’s a metric mile…As someone who ran D1 in XC, he didn’t run 4:19.
Your 4:13 is in a competitive race wearing racing spikes on a top track after a 20 week build.
If he ran a 4:19 with no specific training on th setting, he’s in the wrong sport. There are also no milers close to that weight…
Put me down...So what I've gathered from this thread lately;
Ben is beginning training to be an Olympic distance runner
Duke and Michigan are hands down favorites to win the NC.
Tom Cruise likes to run.
In other news, I'm hosting a pizza and cottage cheese party and am desperate for recommendations.
1) Buy more pizza than cottage cheese.So what I've gathered from this thread lately;
Ben is beginning training to be an Olympic distance runner
Duke and Michigan are hands down favorites to win the NC.
Tom Cruise likes to run.
In other news, I'm hosting a pizza and cottage cheese party and am desperate for recommendations.
In any tournament only one team will end up happy. Which is why, although I certainly enjoy watching March Madness, I'm more tuned in to what a team does during the grueling regular season. What can you do over a 4-month long haul, playing a lot of elite teams in hostile locatios?True but it takes more than talent, otherwise the last twenty national champions would have been Duke, UNC, Kentucky or Kansas.
I don't think Reed is replacing Yaxel.
Starting group last year was
Cadeau/Burnett/Yaxel/Morez/Mara.
This year I'd expect it to be
Cadeau/McKnenney/McCoy/Estrella/Thiam.
Regardless, the downgrades are at the 3/4/5. That frontcourt is a ton to replace.
Yaxel/Mara/Morez were so good they made other insane frontcourts like Peat/Krivas/Kharchenkov/Awaka and Haugh/Condon/Chinyelu look pedestrian.Yeah I shouldn’t have presented it that way. Didn’t mean he was replacing him in the lineup necessarily, just trying to show what they had vs bringing in. But this definitely also illustrates they won’t be nearly as big/long as last year too.
2025 Duke was pretty generational too. Just didn't win it all.Yaxel/Mara/Morez were so good they made other insane frontcourts like Peat/Krivas/Kharchenkov/Awaka and Haugh/Condon/Chinyelu look pedestrian.
Obviously Michigan 2026 grinds my gears. But that team, like 2024 UConn and Brunson’s Nova teams, was generational.
2025 Duke was pretty generational too. Just didn't win it all.
Fact is, due to NIL, the time has come that we accept there will be a super team every year. Just look at the recent KenPom ratings for the top teams.
An argument might be that they played to the level of competition. When lights shined brightest, they excelled because they knew the competition has harsher. When they played easier teams they used it as opportunities to try rotations and schematics out. Which could be why they destroyed the better teams they played, but as you point out squeaked by teams like Minnesota, Penn State, and Oregon.The recent rise in metrics is more due to coaching actively working to engineer the analytics scores now than it is NIL.
NIL has allowed teams to buy some success, but has also resulted in a lot of teams spending tons of money and getting not a lot out of it (eg, Kentucky). We know from history of massive spend 'super teams' that they tend to flop just as often as they succeed, it seems.
But, like... is Duke's success due to NIL? They were pretty good before...
I wouldn't even call Michigan last year a 'super team'... lost to an unranked Wisconsin team, squeaked by a bunch of horrible-to-okay teams like Wake Forest, TCU, Penn State, Oregon... even Northwestern and Minnesota tested them. Nearly lost to Iowa and Ohio State. Nearly lost to that same Wisconsin team again.
There is indeed. Michigan was #3 in "opponent adjustment" and UConn was #14. Wisconsin (#12) was the only other decent team in the top ~50 for that metric. Illinois was #330 (meaning we generally did worse against top teams). I don't know if there's enough of a sample size in a CBB season to say how robust this metric is though.An argument might be that they played to the level of competition. When lights shined brightest, they excelled because they knew the competition has harsher. When they played easier teams they used it as opportunities to try rotations and schematics out. Which could be why they destroyed the better teams they played, but as you point out squeaked by teams like Minnesota, Penn State, and Oregon.
I think there was even a metric passed around that displayed if you played better/worse against top level teams or bottom level teams, and Michigan trended to struggle against easier teams, but showed strength against the tougher teams. Illinois on the other hand I think was neutral on harder teams but was very strong on easy teams. As demonstrated in our late season skid before the tournament. Now I think factors were at play for us, like injuries, etc. but dominating the elite teams and sometimes struggling but still winning against lesser ones can get you in trouble by messing with fire at the wrong time (like in March), or can get you places like the winners podium.