Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS

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#777      
I tentatively agree and hope you are right! One thing I REALLY like about this offense is that it does not rely on being hot from three ... as Iowa has shown in the past, that can win you almost any game, but it can bring you down in the Tournament the second you're cold. We are currently shooting 35.3% from three on the year ... so look at our last six games (all wins) and the relatively little correlation with shooting below or above our average and still scoring a lot of points:

31.3% at Iowa ... W 73-61
26.7% vs. Ohio State (BTT) ... W 77-74
37.1% vs. Nebraska (BTT) ... W 98-87
35.0% vs. Wisconsin (BTT) ... W 93-87
46.2% vs. Morehead State (NCAAT) ... W 85-69
33.3% vs. Duquesne (NCAAT) ... W 89-63

So, we shot above our average in 2 games and below it in 4 games, winning all 4. In the two games we shot above our average, we averaged 91.5 PPG. In the 4 games we shot below our average, we averaged 83.0 PPG. So even if we are shooting below average from three, we are dropping 83 points on teams, haha. If we get hot from three, look out ... such as 97 points vs. Michigan shooting 48.0% from deep or 105 points vs. Minnesota shooting 45.5% from deep.
ISU's defense is designed to deny paint scoring though. IMO, it would be nice if we shoot the three ball more than at least 33% in the game. Otherwise, we need to get enough FT with good percentage. Transition game is of course always desired and DR is very important.
 
#778      

skyIdub

Winged Warrior
So an average of 73 possessions per game, with a current 1.5ish points per possession leads me to believe ISU can't let us get more than 65 possessions.

If we have a terrible shooting night, we'll need 72+.

So even a slightly below average night in possessions and points per possession, let's say 67 possessions at 1.2 ppp.....still getting to 80.

They are going to frustrate us on offense for sure...but one on one vs. TSJ is not going to go well for their guards...and Shannon is making immediate decisions with the ball.....drive, pass, shoot....which means he's not going to let them dictate possessions.
One v. one on MD is not going to work for them either. He will pop it straight out of the double team and CoHawk will get a 3 or a dribble drive, or swing it to TSJ who is now 1v1 because of the help on Domask.

Execute and this is a W.
 
#780      
My biggest concern is passing against an elite defense. I think some of what we do is a bit dodgy, and won't fly against a team like Iowa St or Houston (although they have differences in how they defend). How the game is called may be a big factor as well. Really curious how they do --should be intense.
We need to recognize that the double team is coming and get rid of the ball before the double happens....good crisp passes just prior to the double team should yield some good looks for the Illini....also on offense... the more we dribble the ball the worse it will be for us...imo
 
#783      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Anyone else a bit worried about Iowa St. on offense? The way they move the ball around and are unselfish is the key component. Hope the Illini aren't in a situation of praying for misses or trying to do the trademark trade buckets back and forth for five minutes thing. The disastrous defense against Wisconsin is still pretty fresh.
Their O vs our D is less interesting to talk about but more important to the outcome of the game, IMO.

We can't win this game if they are scoring easily.
 
#784      
Anyone else a bit worried about Iowa St. on offense? The way they move the ball around and are unselfish is the key component. Hope the Illini aren't in a situation of praying for misses or trying to do the trademark trade buckets back and forth for five minutes thing. The disastrous defense against Wisconsin is still pretty fresh.
What worries me about their offense is that it's more predicated on getting to the rim vs shooting threes. We've had some games this year where we've struggled mightily at closing off driving lanes.
 
#785      
Their O vs our D is less interesting to talk about but more important to the outcome of the game, IMO.

We can't win this game if they are scoring easily.
Unless we're scoring easier....but yes... our D needs to be good
 
#786      
Anyone else a bit worried about Iowa St. on offense? The way they move the ball around and are unselfish is the key component. Hope the Illini aren't in a situation of praying for misses or trying to do the trademark trade buckets back and forth for five minutes thing. The disastrous defense against Wisconsin is still pretty fresh.
Is there anything I'm not worried about at this point. This game needs to just get here already. Haven't had to sweat out the waiting for the 2nd weekend in a while.
 
#787      

Bigtex

DFW
I tentatively agree and hope you are right! One thing I REALLY like about this offense is that it does not rely on being hot from three ... as Iowa has shown in the past, that can win you almost any game, but it can bring you down in the Tournament the second you're cold. We are currently shooting 35.3% from three on the year ... so look at our last six games (all wins) and the relatively little correlation with shooting below or above our average and still scoring a lot of points:

31.3% at Iowa ... W 73-61
26.7% vs. Ohio State (BTT) ... W 77-74
37.1% vs. Nebraska (BTT) ... W 98-87
35.0% vs. Wisconsin (BTT) ... W 93-87
46.2% vs. Morehead State (NCAAT) ... W 85-69
33.3% vs. Duquesne (NCAAT) ... W 89-63

So, we shot above our average in 2 games and below it in 4 games, winning all 4. In the two games we shot above our average, we averaged 91.5 PPG. In the 4 games we shot below our average, we averaged 83.0 PPG. So even if we are shooting below average from three, we are dropping 83 points on teams, haha. If we get hot from three, look out ... such as 97 points vs. Michigan shooting 48.0% from deep or 105 points vs. Minnesota shooting 45.5% from deep.
3PP is relevant but for me the number of attempted 3's is more important to Illinois success. Take the Open 3 but not the contested 3. 20-25 3's a game seems to be our sweet spot. Added in Purdue vs Illinois game

25.0% in Champaign ... L 77-71 4-16
31.3% at Iowa ... W 73-61 5-16
26.7% vs. Ohio State (BTT) ... W 77-74 4-15
37.1% vs. Nebraska (BTT) ... W 98-87 13-35
35.0% vs. Wisconsin (BTT) ... W 93-87 7-20
46.2% vs. Morehead State (NCAAT) ... W 85-69 12-26
33.3% vs. Duquesne (NCAAT) ... W 89-63 7-21
 
#788      

NASchamp

Atlanta
Our starting five also averages to 22.2 even with still 19 year old Rodgers. Harmon is 22 it would be even higher with him.


Brad rocking the Bill Belichick look in New England? 👀

Noticed the same thing. Bodes well for us I think 😜
 
#789      
Illinois hadn’t won more than five games in a row this season until our current six game winning streak. Right now, we have the third longest winning streak in college basketball behind only UConn (9) and NC State (7), and just ahead of Iowa State (5).

What does all this mean? I dunno 🤷🏼‍♂️. Just something interesting to know, I suppose. I wouldn’t mind seeing UConn and Iowa State’s streaks end on Thursday, of course.

Current Win Streaks - College Hoops
 
#790      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
I just watched the replay of the isu vs. wsu game and I have some random thoughts that I thought i would share with my friends here........

Using the eye test in watching the replay , it seems that isu is vulnerable to drives to the bucket down the the paint.....and we have the premier player in TSJ doing just that.......wsu had no one near the talent of TSJ and had minor success doing it.....wsu's star player , Issac Jones , was a complete no show in this game ......I have watched him before and he is talented , but this game he was off the whole game.....

Was it isu's D ?????......hard to say as he had trouble with just the basic stuff , let alone elevated skill actions......Wells had the best game for wsu , but that was only in the first half as isu clamped down on him , so halftime adjustments were made to stop his scoring........

isu's main trait on D was to crowd the ballhandler with their body using their mid section to pressure the ball in a crowding motion and using their hands as a pressure stance, causing numerous errant passes by wsu...........one thing is apparent to me ......we are a lot more talented skill wise on O than wsu even hoped to be........So , are we gonna be sped up by the trapping D that isu uses ??........doubtful in my mind compared to wsu or other less talented teams than the Illini........people tend to forget how much the Illini have improved as far as the number of turnovers committed this year from the beginning of the season until now......

Also at issue is the number of fouls being called in the upcoming game........we have improved so much in our total fouls per game and it is not talked about enough , IMHO..........seems like BU has finally gotten through to the team about moving our feet on D and not using our hands to slow the opponent down......

It was clear to me that we need to monitor the freshman Momcilovic at all times and plan for his fade away shot as it seems that is about 75 % of his shots.....he also is their main 3 pt shooter.........Their guard Gilbert is a penetrator and must have had some serious acting lessons as he is a puke wannabe flopper of the nth degree.......Lipsey is their floor general and does a lot of good things , but still , at times , plays out of control.........

To me , it is going to boil down to ..............

1.........how the game is called ............duh.....
2.........how well we are shooting the 3 ....duh........
3.........can we control the boards..........duh..........
4........limit our turnovers to less than 10 for the game..........duh..........

the above items I listed holds true for most games played , especially in a single elimination tourney ........my best estimation on tomorrow night's game is.......................

Illini 80
isu 73

Probably the best D we will have faced this season .........but , no probably , we are the best O that isu will have faced this year.......we will have the talent advantage on them with our starting 5 stacked up next to their's..........and a lot was made about their bench play......well , welcome to the Illini bench of Dain , Goode , Harmon , DGL and Hansberry................

it should be an entertaining game , and please please please , no d j bald head ref , courtney " no nads " green and especially no white haired eric curry.....finally found his name out and he is a complete blind technical calling idiot......

LETS GO ILLINI !!!!!!!!!!
 
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#793      
Is there anything I'm not worried about at this point. This game needs to just get here already. Haven't had to sweat out the waiting for the 2nd weekend in a while.
Amen... at least it's house money. If the season ends tomorrow night, it's still a Big Ten Tournament banner raising season and a Sweet Sixteen appearance, which is still a great season. I'm just grateful the Sweet Sixteen drought is over. No shame in losing from here on out to this great field (but of course hoping for a Win). This is a great season to solidify Illinois's place amongst the better programs in the country.
 
#794      

Dan

Admin
Live press conference feed from Boston. I believe they said Illinois coming up in a few minutes-

 
#795      
Illinois hadn’t won more than five games in a row this season until our current six game winning streak. Right now, we have the third longest winning streak in college basketball behind only UConn (9) and NC State (7), and just ahead of Iowa State (5).

What does all this mean? I dunno 🤷🏼‍♂️. Just something interesting to know, I suppose. I wouldn’t mind seeing UConn and Iowa State’s streaks end on Thursday, of course.

Current Win Streaks - College Hoops
On one of the CBS NCAA pregame shows they said that no team had ever one the tournament that had not won at least 6 games in a row prior to reaching the tournament.
 
#797      
Amen... at least it's house money. If the season ends tomorrow night, it's still a Big Ten Tournament banner raising season and a Sweet Sixteen appearance, which is still a great season. I'm just grateful the Sweet Sixteen drought is over. No shame in losing from here on out to this great field (but of course hoping for a Win). This is a great season to solidify Illinois's place amongst the better programs in the country.
No doubt. I'm hoping we complete the streak of besting a conference tourney champion each round to get to the final four but won't be disappointed by any result at this point.

*I'm assuming Uconn wins its sweet 16 matchup.
 
#799      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
On one of the CBS NCAA pregame shows they said that no team had ever one the tournament that had not won at least 6 games in a row prior to reaching the tournament.
That's not true, UConn lost to Marquette in the Big East tourney last year.

Maybe it's that every champion had at least a 6 game winning streak at some point in their season? That would make more sense.

[EDIT: Or maybe that's what you meant in the first place lol]
 
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