The scheme to stop transition offense is to play good offense and make the transition team inbound the ball. If you're not taking bad shots or turning the ball over (especially live ball turnovers) at a high rate, you can keep teams out of transition because you can set your defense. When quick shots go up and the turnovers start....it's off to the races.
Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS
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drsmitty74
- Rochester
My wife and every one of my in-laws is from Maine. Met my wife at a pool hall in the Quincy Market district (The Rack which is now closed) 22 years ago. I still butcher the New England town names and I still catch grief from all of them.
It comes down to....can Illinois keep Iowa State's guards from dribble drive penetration? That's our kryptonite. We have size, but we have a lack of quickness in the backcourt and all kinds of bad things happen when that issue presents itself.
We have had a plethora of guys go nuclear on us from three and it's generally because they're wide open due to a dribble drive and kick it out scenario OR they get into the lane forcing our big(usually CH) to commit and it results in a dunk.
Dan
Admin
TBS/TruTV (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, & Andy Katz)
fightingillini.com
NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinal Preview | 3 Illinois vs. 2 Iowa State Thursday - University of Illinois Athletics
Third-seeded Illinois tips off in the Sweet 16 Thursday night vs. second-seeded Iowa State (9:09 p.m. CT, TBS/TruTV).
fightingillini.com
I think the issue there is we are not defensively deep. Offense has a ton of guys who can score, but you'd be hard pressed to find more than one great defensive possession per game out of Goode, for example. Harmon is closer to 50/50 on his defense. DGL does well but can be overactive. Domask to an extent is only an average defender too. I think tempo will matter a lot here.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Brad mentioned Miami last year, and my memory's not that good, so I went digging.
Last year in the Sweet 16:
Miami (#33 overall, #11 O, #109 D)
v.
Houston (#1 overall, #8 O / #4 D)
Miami won 89-75. Slight lead all game until a 16-2 run midway through the 2nd half put them up for good. I love that script - let's do it.
Last year in the Sweet 16:
Miami (#33 overall, #11 O, #109 D)
v.
Houston (#1 overall, #8 O / #4 D)
Miami won 89-75. Slight lead all game until a 16-2 run midway through the 2nd half put them up for good. I love that script - let's do it.
Nobody is worrying ISU scoring 80. It’s whether we can score 75ish. We failed to do that last time with Purdue but they have Edey clogging the lane.
We didn’t played a top 25 team in that stretch unless you count Wisconsin, who we know doesn’t belong. I think we are in a good form now (at least offensively) and it’s our chance to prove we can beat a top 25 team.Illinois hadn’t won more than five games in a row this season until our current six game winning streak. Right now, we have the third longest winning streak in college basketball behind only UConn (9) and NC State (7), and just ahead of Iowa State (5).
What does all this mean? I dunno. Just something interesting to know, I suppose. I wouldn’t mind seeing UConn and Iowa State’s streaks end on Thursday, of course.
Current Win Streaks - College Hoops
Let’s win a house money game though!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For what little it might be worth, we score 84.6 PPG and give up 73.4 PPG. Iowa State scores 75.5 PPG and gives up 61.2 PPG. These are the offenses we have played that are better than Iowa State according to KenPom and the points we allowed against them (ranking is their overall offense ranking nationally). For reference, Iowa State's offense is #49 nationally, and we are obviously #1. In reverse chronological order:
87 vs. #18 Wisconsin (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
87 vs. #32 Nebraska (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
74 vs. #40 Ohio State (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
61 at #15 Iowa
77 vs. #3 Purdue
83 at #18 Wisconsin
85 vs. #15 Iowa
84 vs. #32 Nebraska in OT
75 at #40 Ohio State
96 at #36 Northwestern in OT
83 at #3 Purdue (no TSJ)
66 vs. #36 Northwestern (no TSJ)
86 at #29 Tennessee
89 vs. #22 FAU (New York, NY)
71 vs. #19 Marquette
So, from the standpoint of OUR defense, it is a bit of a mixed bag. All in all, we held a better offense to at or below ISU's average PPG in 5 of those contests. We will certainly need one of our better defensive efforts, but I do NOT think Iowa State will beat us by scoring in the low 70s ... JMO.
Since Iowa State is the #1 defense, there really is no "better" comparison. However, this is how many points we scored against top 25 defenses this year, again in reverse chronological order:
85 at #12 Maryland
80 at #11 Michigan State
86 vs. #4 Rutgers
67 vs. #12 Maryland (no TSJ)
71 vs. #11 Michigan State (no TSJ)
76 at #4 Rutgers
79 at #3 Tennessee
64 vs. #18 Marquette
Conversely, we have scored significantly more than ISU's average points allowed per game in all of our matchups against top defenses.
TL;DR
This KIND of says what we already know ... Iowa State's defense will be good, our offense will be good and it is likely the team that has a "better than usual" performance in their weaker area that wins the game. However, I will PERSONALLY take the bet that the elite Illini offense is less affected by the elite Iowa State defense than the other way around ... so if our defensive effort is there, I like our chances.
87 vs. #18 Wisconsin (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
87 vs. #32 Nebraska (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
74 vs. #40 Ohio State (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
61 at #15 Iowa
77 vs. #3 Purdue
83 at #18 Wisconsin
85 vs. #15 Iowa
84 vs. #32 Nebraska in OT
75 at #40 Ohio State
96 at #36 Northwestern in OT
83 at #3 Purdue (no TSJ)
66 vs. #36 Northwestern (no TSJ)
86 at #29 Tennessee
89 vs. #22 FAU (New York, NY)
71 vs. #19 Marquette
So, from the standpoint of OUR defense, it is a bit of a mixed bag. All in all, we held a better offense to at or below ISU's average PPG in 5 of those contests. We will certainly need one of our better defensive efforts, but I do NOT think Iowa State will beat us by scoring in the low 70s ... JMO.
Since Iowa State is the #1 defense, there really is no "better" comparison. However, this is how many points we scored against top 25 defenses this year, again in reverse chronological order:
85 at #12 Maryland
80 at #11 Michigan State
86 vs. #4 Rutgers
67 vs. #12 Maryland (no TSJ)
71 vs. #11 Michigan State (no TSJ)
76 at #4 Rutgers
79 at #3 Tennessee
64 vs. #18 Marquette
Conversely, we have scored significantly more than ISU's average points allowed per game in all of our matchups against top defenses.
TL;DR
This KIND of says what we already know ... Iowa State's defense will be good, our offense will be good and it is likely the team that has a "better than usual" performance in their weaker area that wins the game. However, I will PERSONALLY take the bet that the elite Illini offense is less affected by the elite Iowa State defense than the other way around ... so if our defensive effort is there, I like our chances.
The biggest issue for Illinois would be getting 2 fouls on TSJ in the first half. With his aggressive defense and offense a couple of bad calls could put Illinois in a hole. If I were ISU I would be looking to get him in foul trouble. It would change the whole game plan for Illinois if TSJ had to sit for significant minutes.
blackdog
- Champaign
TBS/TruTV (Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, & Andy Katz)
NCAA Tournament Regional Semifinal Preview | 3 Illinois vs. 2 Iowa State Thursday - University of Illinois Athletics
Third-seeded Illinois tips off in the Sweet 16 Thursday night vs. second-seeded Iowa State (9:09 p.m. CT, TBS/TruTV).
Getting to watch any game with Kevin Harlan is an absolute treat but even more after the garbage we have gotten the last couple games.
From what I've read, ISU seems to be happy to take the midrange jumper rather than a 3. So maybe a bigger issue will be, our are defenders close enough to make them miss some of those midrange shots?
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
This will be a good question for the offseason but I'm interested in how others will interpret the offensive explosion this year across the sport. For example, there are 15 team offensive efficiency scores in 2024 that are better than the very best 2006 offense. Also, there are four 2024 offenses with efficiency scores above 125.0 (Illinois, UConn, Purdue, and Bama), that is better than every single team offensive efficiency score from 2002 through 2014.
I’m guessing a lot of it has to do with the advanced usage and understanding of analytics.
PizzaHutParkingLot
- McPherson, KS
Not disagreeing with this sentiment, but extended tourney runs are hard (as we know all too well).
We’re here, if we can survive Iowa State let’s win the whole damn thing.
While I understand that ISU has balanced scoring, I was surprised that they only had 13 times of one of their players scoring 20 points ... all year (if I totaled it correctly.) TSJ has done it 20 times alone. Many games are decided by one player just going off, and putting the team on his back. I don't see anyone on ISU that will do that. We might have 2 candidates - Marcus scored 20 or more 11 times also (the Illini had 40 games with a player scoring 20 or more.)
This. Golden State Warriors effect.
Plus, specific to this year's offensive explosion, I wonder how much the new block/charge call affects it.
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