Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS

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#826      
Second place is 1st loser
ILL-Intentions said:
I am curious to see the defensive scheme against our transition game. TSJ just does not care if there are already 3 guys back and it is 3-1, he takes it to them. If the fouls get called, I like his chances to carry a large load of our offense. I have seen that the tournament guys let them play more than the conference guys. If it does get to a half court game, he still pops and shoots well to get his but Domask could near another triple double with his assist rate. As its been said, its almost like we are playing with house money but not to discredit our chances either. I have seen alot of comparisons for our Q1 wins vs theirs and ours are unimpressive comparatively. This team has transformed throughout the season and can adapt to whatever we need. I do truly think we are so much better than we were even 2 weeks ago.
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The scheme to stop transition offense is to play good offense and make the transition team inbound the ball. If you're not taking bad shots or turning the ball over (especially live ball turnovers) at a high rate, you can keep teams out of transition because you can set your defense. When quick shots go up and the turnovers start....it's off to the races.
 
#830      
ptgrd23
In their 2nd round win over 7 seed Washington State.

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#831      
Second place is 1st loser
mjt said:
Let's say the #1 offense and defense cancel each other out. The game is going to come down to does Illinois's defense or Iowa State's offense. Is it more likely a team can play better defensively or offensively for one game? I think there's a better chance the Illini can play better defense for one game based on effort, energy, and communication. Iowa State would have to change the style of offense they play or score more efficiently, a skill they don't have, in order to score with Illinois.
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It comes down to....can Illinois keep Iowa State's guards from dribble drive penetration? That's our kryptonite. We have size, but we have a lack of quickness in the backcourt and all kinds of bad things happen when that issue presents itself.

We have had a plethora of guys go nuclear on us from three and it's generally because they're wide open due to a dribble drive and kick it out scenario OR they get into the lane forcing our big(usually CH) to commit and it results in a dunk.
 
#833      
HereSoIDontGetFined
I think the issue there is we are not defensively deep. Offense has a ton of guys who can score, but you'd be hard pressed to find more than one great defensive possession per game out of Goode, for example. Harmon is closer to 50/50 on his defense. DGL does well but can be overactive. Domask to an extent is only an average defender too. I think tempo will matter a lot here.
 
#834      
danielb927
Brad mentioned Miami last year, and my memory's not that good, so I went digging.

Last year in the Sweet 16:

Miami (#33 overall, #11 O, #109 D)
v.
Houston (#1 overall, #8 O / #4 D)

Miami won 89-75. Slight lead all game until a 16-2 run midway through the 2nd half put them up for good. I love that script - let's do it.
 
#835      
Mobi
theNewGuy said:
Just play our game and be the best offense in the country.
I don't Iowa St can get to 80 points in regulation.
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Nobody is worrying ISU scoring 80. It’s whether we can score 75ish. We failed to do that last time with Purdue but they have Edey clogging the lane.
 
#837      
Mobi
RabidDawgClassic said:
Illinois hadn’t won more than five games in a row this season until our current six game winning streak. Right now, we have the third longest winning streak in college basketball behind only UConn (9) and NC State (7), and just ahead of Iowa State (5).

What does all this mean? I dunno 🤷🏼‍♂️. Just something interesting to know, I suppose. I wouldn’t mind seeing UConn and Iowa State’s streaks end on Thursday, of course.

Current Win Streaks - College Hoops
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We didn’t played a top 25 team in that stretch unless you count Wisconsin, who we know doesn’t belong. I think we are in a good form now (at least offensively) and it’s our chance to prove we can beat a top 25 team.
 
#838      
Mobi
TheodoreRex said:
this is basically my current sentiment with a dash of "I'm already pretty happy/pleased with the season-winning a big ten tourney championship, and making it to the sweet 16, anything else is gravy"
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Let’s win a house money game though!
 
#839      
Fighter of the Nightman
For what little it might be worth, we score 84.6 PPG and give up 73.4 PPG. Iowa State scores 75.5 PPG and gives up 61.2 PPG. These are the offenses we have played that are better than Iowa State according to KenPom and the points we allowed against them (ranking is their overall offense ranking nationally). For reference, Iowa State's offense is #49 nationally, and we are obviously #1. In reverse chronological order:

87 vs. #18 Wisconsin (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
87 vs. #32 Nebraska (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
74 vs. #40 Ohio State (Minneapolis, MN - BTT)
61 at #15 Iowa
77 vs. #3 Purdue
83 at #18 Wisconsin
85 vs. #15 Iowa
84 vs. #32 Nebraska in OT
75 at #40 Ohio State
96 at #36 Northwestern in OT
83 at #3 Purdue (no TSJ)
66 vs. #36 Northwestern (no TSJ)
86 at #29 Tennessee
89 vs. #22 FAU (New York, NY)
71 vs. #19 Marquette

So, from the standpoint of OUR defense, it is a bit of a mixed bag. All in all, we held a better offense to at or below ISU's average PPG in 5 of those contests. We will certainly need one of our better defensive efforts, but I do NOT think Iowa State will beat us by scoring in the low 70s ... JMO.

Since Iowa State is the #1 defense, there really is no "better" comparison. However, this is how many points we scored against top 25 defenses this year, again in reverse chronological order:

85 at #12 Maryland
80 at #11 Michigan State
86 vs. #4 Rutgers
67 vs. #12 Maryland (no TSJ)
71 vs. #11 Michigan State (no TSJ)
76 at #4 Rutgers
79 at #3 Tennessee
64 vs. #18 Marquette

Conversely, we have scored significantly more than ISU's average points allowed per game in all of our matchups against top defenses.

TL;DR

This KIND of says what we already know ... Iowa State's defense will be good, our offense will be good and it is likely the team that has a "better than usual" performance in their weaker area that wins the game. However, I will PERSONALLY take the bet that the elite Illini offense is less affected by the elite Iowa State defense than the other way around ... so if our defensive effort is there, I like our chances.
 
#840      
EllderIlliniFan
The biggest issue for Illinois would be getting 2 fouls on TSJ in the first half. With his aggressive defense and offense a couple of bad calls could put Illinois in a hole. If I were ISU I would be looking to get him in foul trouble. It would change the whole game plan for Illinois if TSJ had to sit for significant minutes.
 
#842      
blackdog
#844      
RML
Second place is 1st loser said:
We have had a plethora of guys go nuclear on us from three and it's generally because they're wide open due to a dribble drive and kick it out scenario OR they get into the lane forcing our big(usually CH) to commit and it results in a dunk.
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From what I've read, ISU seems to be happy to take the midrange jumper rather than a 3. So maybe a bigger issue will be, our are defenders close enough to make them miss some of those midrange shots?
 
#845      
mhuml32
ManlyLibrarian said:
This Illini team isn't just the best offense this year, it's historically great. I know it's tough to compare Kenpom numbers across years, but it's fair to say that this team is special.
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This will be a good question for the offseason but I'm interested in how others will interpret the offensive explosion this year across the sport. For example, there are 15 team offensive efficiency scores in 2024 that are better than the very best 2006 offense. Also, there are four 2024 offenses with efficiency scores above 125.0 (Illinois, UConn, Purdue, and Bama), that is better than every single team offensive efficiency score from 2002 through 2014.
 
#846      
RabidDawgClassic
mhuml32 said:
This will be a good question for the offseason but I'm interested in how others will interpret the offensive explosion this year across the sport. For example, there are 15 team offensive efficiency scores in 2024 that are better than the very best 2006 offense. Also, there are four 2024 offenses with efficiency scores above 125.0 (Illinois, UConn, Purdue, and Bama), that is better than every single team offensive efficiency score from 2002 through 2014.
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I’m guessing a lot of it has to do with the advanced usage and understanding of analytics.
 
#847      
PizzaHutParkingLot
DocMorgan said:
Obviously, I want the Illini to win this game and go as far as possible, but with that being said, in my mind, winning last weekend to get to the 2nd weekend was the determining factor in evaluating the success of this season. Everything else is gravy! Some or most of you will disagree with this thought, but after going 19 years without a 2nd weekend, this has to count as a successful season.

I am confident the beloved will perform and play well tomorrow night, and win or lose, I can live with the result. For example, after the Loyola loss, I had a hard time functioning for several days! Maybe I am mellowing in my old age.
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Season 2 Halloween GIF by Sony Pictures Television

Turn Up Reaction GIF by CBS

Not disagreeing with this sentiment, but extended tourney runs are hard (as we know all too well).

We’re here, if we can survive Iowa State let’s win the whole damn thing.
 
#848      
Illini 993
While I understand that ISU has balanced scoring, I was surprised that they only had 13 times of one of their players scoring 20 points ... all year (if I totaled it correctly.) TSJ has done it 20 times alone. Many games are decided by one player just going off, and putting the team on his back. I don't see anyone on ISU that will do that. We might have 2 candidates - Marcus scored 20 or more 11 times also (the Illini had 40 games with a player scoring 20 or more.)
 
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